**Darline Graham Nordone holds an 88.3% implied probability in the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary market, far ahead of Ralph Norman at 11.5% and all other listed candidates at 0.1%.** The August 11 special primary produced no majority winner, advancing Graham (32.8%) and Norman (23.5%) to an August 25 runoff after her appointment to finish her late brother Lindsey Graham’s term. Traders price her dominance based on name recognition from the Graham family legacy, the gubernatorial appointment, and reported endorsements that consolidated support in a compressed three-week campaign window. Norman’s narrower path reflects his second-place finish and limited remaining time to close the gap before runoff voting. Other entrants, including Russell Fry and Mark Sanford, fell short of the top two and register negligible odds. The market reflects trader consensus on these structural and recent electoral factors ahead of the runoff outcome.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Darline Graham Nordone's market probability peaks at 92% ahead of runoff
Darline Graham Nordone surges to 92%15%
Market prices surged to 92% for Darline Graham Nordone as she solidified her position as the likely winner of the Republican nomination following endorsements and campaign momentum heading into the runoff.
Russell Fry endorses Darline Graham in South Carolina Senate runoff
After finishing third in the primary, Russell Fry endorsed Darline Graham Nordone for the runoff, consolidating support behind her and influencing market confidence in her eventual nomination.
Associated Press projects South Carolina Senate special primary to runoff
Darline Graham Nordone surges to 76%35%
The Associated Press projected that the August 11 special Republican primary would head to a runoff between Darline Graham and Ralph Norman, confirming the market's expectation of a runoff and solidifying Darline Graham's frontrunner status.
Market prices reflect Darline Graham Nordone as leading candidate after primary
Darline Graham Nordone jumps to 82%9%
Following the primary, market prices surged for Darline Graham Nordone, reflecting her frontrunner status going into the runoff against Ralph Norman, whose market price also remained significant.
South Carolina special Republican primary held; Darline Graham and Ralph Norman advance to runoff
The special primary election took place with no candidate securing a majority, leading to a runoff between Darline Graham Nordone and Ralph Norman. This event caused a major market shift favoring these two candidates.
Darline Graham Nordone and Ralph Norman advance to runoff in South Carolina Senate special primary
Darline Graham Nordone surges to 77%31%
In the August 11 special Republican primary, Darline Graham Nordone and Ralph Norman secured the top two spots, advancing to a runoff election. This outcome reflected the market's shift with Nordone's strong position and Norman's resilience despite Trump's endorsement of Nordone.
Special Republican primary held to select nominee for Lindsey Graham's seat
Darline Graham Nordone surges to 77%31%
South Carolina held a special Republican primary on August 11, 2026, to select the party's nominee for the U.S. Senate seat vacated by Lindsey Graham's death. The primary featured a crowded field including Darline Graham Nordone, Ralph Norman, Russell Fry, Mark Sanford, and Mark Lynch. Darline Graham Nordone led the race, benefiting from her appointment and Trump's endorsement, with other candidates trailing.
Darline Graham and Ralph Norman advance to runoff in South Carolina Senate special primary
In the August 11 special Republican primary, Darline Graham Nordone and Ralph Norman secured the top two spots, advancing to a runoff election scheduled for August 25. This outcome reflected the competitive nature of the race and the divided support among Republican voters.
Russell Fry and Mark Sanford fail to advance in South Carolina special Republican primary
Russell Fry plunges to 0%45%
Despite early campaign efforts, both Rep. Russell Fry and former Governor Mark Sanford failed to secure enough votes to advance past the August 11 special Republican primary, effectively ending their bids for the Senate nomination.
Darline Graham and Ralph Norman advance to runoff in South Carolina special Republican primary
Darline Graham Nordone jumps to 83%10%
In the August 11 special Republican primary, Darline Graham Nordone led the field but did not secure a majority, with Ralph Norman finishing second. This result triggered a runoff election between the two candidates, setting the stage for the final nomination decision.
South Carolina holds special Republican primary for U.S. Senate seat
South Carolina voters participated in the special Republican primary to select the party's nominee for the U.S. Senate seat vacated by Lindsey Graham's death. Darline Graham Nordone and Ralph Norman advanced to a runoff as no candidate secured a majority.
South Carolina special Republican Senate primary held; no candidate wins majority
Darline Graham Nordone surges to 83%79%
The special primary election took place with Darline Graham emerging as the top vote-getter but failing to secure a majority, leading to a runoff with Ralph Norman. This result caused a major market shift favoring Darline Graham's chances of winning the nomination.
Ralph Norman makes final campaign push before South Carolina Senate special primary
Ralph Norman jumps to 31%6%
Ralph Norman held a final campaign event with supporters including U.S. Rep. Nancy Mace, urging voter turnout and emphasizing his congressional record, which helped solidify his position as a runoff contender.
Republican candidates debate ahead of South Carolina special primary
Several Republican candidates, including Darline Graham Nordone, Ralph Norman, Russell Fry, Mark Sanford, and Mark Lynch, participated in a debate, providing voters with insights into their platforms and influencing voter sentiment ahead of the primary.
Mark Lynch campaigns actively ahead of South Carolina Senate special primary
Mark Lynch dips to 0%3%
Mark Lynch held campaign events and interviews to boost his profile ahead of the special primary, though polling suggested he was trailing the frontrunners, impacting his market price downward.
Early voting begins for South Carolina special Republican Senate primary
Early voting started for the special Republican primary election to select the nominee to replace Lindsey Graham, intensifying campaign efforts and voter engagement ahead of the August 11 primary date.
Candidate filing deadline closes for South Carolina special Senate primary
The filing deadline for the special Republican primary closed, finalizing the candidate list and allowing campaigns to focus on the August 11 primary. This event stabilized market expectations ahead of the vote.
Candidate filing period closes for South Carolina special Senate primary
The one-week candidate filing period for the special Republican primary to replace Lindsey Graham closed, finalizing the crowded field of candidates including Darline Graham Nordone, Ralph Norman, Mark Sanford, Russell Fry, and Mark Lynch.
Nancy Mace announces she will not run for Senate seat
Nancy Mace plunges to 0%46%
Rep. Nancy Mace announced she would not run in the special election to replace Lindsey Graham, citing unfinished business and focusing on justice issues. She later endorsed Ralph Norman in the race.
Darline Graham Nordone files paperwork to run in special primary
Darline Graham Nordone rises to 74%1%
Darline Graham Nordone formally submitted her paperwork to run in the special Republican primary, confirming her candidacy and prompting market confidence in her chances to win the nomination.
Darline Graham Nordone files to run for full Senate term
Darline Graham Nordone rises to 72%3%
Interim Senator Darline Graham Nordone officially filed paperwork to run in the special primary for a full term, solidifying her candidacy and maintaining her frontrunner status in the race.
Mark Sanford enters South Carolina Senate special primary race
Mark Sanford plunges to 5%45%
Former South Carolina Governor and U.S. Representative Mark Sanford announced his candidacy for the special Republican primary to fill Lindsey Graham's Senate seat, focusing on fiscal responsibility and combating the national debt.
Mark Sanford announces run for South Carolina Senate special primary
Mark Sanford plunges to 0%50%
Former South Carolina Governor and U.S. Representative Mark Sanford announced his candidacy for the special Republican primary to replace Lindsey Graham, emphasizing fiscal responsibility and national debt concerns. His entry added a notable name to the race but did not translate into sustained market support.
Mark Sanford announces candidacy for South Carolina Senate special election
Mark Sanford plunges to 2%48%
Former South Carolina Governor Mark Sanford announced his run for the Senate seat, focusing on fiscal responsibility and national debt concerns. His entry added to the crowded field but his market probability remained low, reflecting limited impact on frontrunners.
Nancy Mace endorses Ralph Norman, declines Senate run
Ralph Norman dips to 18%2%
Rep. Nancy Mace decided not to run for the Senate seat and instead endorsed Ralph Norman, breaking from Trump's endorsement of Darline Graham, which influenced market dynamics by consolidating conservative support behind Norman.
Darline Graham Nordone announces she will run for full Senate term
Darline Graham Nordone jumps to 73%7%
After being appointed interim senator, Darline Graham Nordone officially announced her candidacy for a full term in the special Republican primary, solidifying her position as a frontrunner with Trump's endorsement.
Russell Fry enters South Carolina Senate race
Russell Fry drops to 38%7%
U.S. Representative Russell Fry announced his candidacy for the special Republican primary to replace Lindsey Graham. Fry positioned himself as a conservative MAGA candidate and received President Trump's reported encouragement to run.
Donald Trump endorses Darline Graham Nordone for full Senate term
Darline Graham Nordone surges to 81%18%
President Donald Trump publicly endorsed Darline Graham Nordone to run for a full term in the U.S. Senate, urging her to run for the seat and lending significant weight to her candidacy in the special primary.
President Trump endorses Darline Graham in South Carolina Senate special primary
Darline Graham Nordone surges to 68%53%
Former President Donald Trump endorsed Darline Graham, boosting her profile and support among Republican voters in South Carolina. This endorsement was significant given Trump's influence in the state GOP and helped propel her polling numbers.
Rep. Russell Fry announces bid for Lindsey Graham's Senate seat
Russell Fry plunges to 22%23%
Rep. Russell Fry entered the crowded Republican primary to replace Lindsey Graham, adding to the competitive field. Fry was reportedly endorsed by Trump to run, which initially boosted his profile, but his support fluctuated as the race progressed.
Nancy Mace decides against running for Lindsey Graham's Senate seat
Nancy Mace plunges to 0%46%
Rep. Nancy Mace announced she would not run in the special election to replace Lindsey Graham, citing unfinished business and focusing on other priorities. Her withdrawal clarified the Republican field and led her to endorse Ralph Norman.
Darline Graham Nordone announces she will run for full Senate term
Darline Graham Nordone jumps to 72%9%
Interim Senator Darline Graham Nordone formally filed to run for a full term in the special Republican primary to fill the seat vacated by her late brother, Lindsey Graham. Her campaign emphasized continuing her brother's legacy and supporting President Trump's agenda.
Darline Graham Nordone announces run for full Senate term with Trump's endorsement
Darline Graham Nordone jumps to 80%11%
Darline Graham Nordone announced her candidacy for a full term in the U.S. Senate, receiving President Donald Trump's complete and total endorsement. This endorsement significantly boosted her profile and market position in the special Republican primary.
Russell Fry announces candidacy for Lindsey Graham's Senate seat
Russell Fry plunges to 14%31%
U.S. Representative Russell Fry announced his run for the Senate seat, joining the crowded field and signaling a competitive primary. His entry affected market dynamics, initially holding a moderate price before declining.
Mark Lynch renews Senate campaign following Lindsey Graham's death
Mark Lynch plunges to 3%42%
Mark Lynch, who challenged Lindsey Graham in the June primary, re-entered the race for the special Republican primary triggered by Graham’s death, emphasizing conservative leadership and increasing his visibility in the race.
Rep. Russell Fry announces candidacy for South Carolina Senate seat
Russell Fry jumps to 11%7%
Congressman Russell Fry announced his candidacy for the special Republican primary to replace Lindsey Graham. Initially, Fry had Trump's support to run, which increased his market probability, but Trump's later endorsement of Nordone complicated Fry's position.
Darline Graham Nordone announces candidacy for full Senate term
Darline Graham Nordone rises to 72%4%
Darline Graham Nordone announced she would run for a full six-year Senate term in the special Republican primary, seeking to continue her late brother's legacy. This announcement solidified her position as a major candidate in the race.
Ralph Norman announces Senate bid despite Trump's endorsement of Darline Graham
Ralph Norman plunges to 18%27%
Congressman Ralph Norman declared his candidacy for the Senate seat, running against Trump-endorsed Darline Graham Nordone. He positioned himself as a conservative fighter with endorsements from Senators Mike Lee and Rick Scott, challenging the establishment choice.
Rep. Ralph Norman announces run for South Carolina Senate seat despite Trump's endorsement of Darline Graham
Ralph Norman plunges to 16%29%
Ralph Norman declared his candidacy for the Senate seat despite President Trump's endorsement of Darline Graham Nordone. Norman received endorsements from GOP Senators Mike Lee and Rick Scott, positioning him as a significant challenger and affecting market dynamics.
Ralph Norman announces run for Lindsey Graham's Senate seat despite Trump's endorsement of Darline Graham
Ralph Norman plunges to 24%21%
Congressman Ralph Norman entered the special primary race despite President Trump's endorsement of Darline Graham, gaining endorsements from Senators Mike Lee and Rick Scott, which affected his market position.
Ralph Norman announces candidacy for Lindsey Graham's Senate seat despite Trump's endorsement of Darline Graham
Ralph Norman jumps to 14%10%
Rep. Ralph Norman declared his run for the Senate seat, despite President Trump's endorsement of Darline Graham Nordone. Norman secured endorsements from GOP Senators Mike Lee and Rick Scott, positioning himself as a strong challenger and causing his market price to rise.
Ralph Norman announces Senate run despite Trump's endorsement of Darline Graham
Ralph Norman drops to 31%14%
Congressman Ralph Norman announced his candidacy for the special Republican primary to replace Lindsey Graham, despite President Donald Trump's endorsement of Darline Graham Nordone. Norman received endorsements from Senators Rick Scott and Mike Lee, positioning him as a strong conservative contender.
Mark Lynch renews Senate campaign following Lindsey Graham's death
Mark Lynch plunges to 3%42%
Businessman Mark Lynch, who challenged Lindsey Graham in the June primary, revived his campaign for the special Republican primary triggered by Graham's death, aiming to consolidate conservative voters dissatisfied with establishment candidates.
Donald Trump endorses Darline Graham Nordone for full Senate term
Darline Graham Nordone surges to 69%53%
President Donald Trump publicly endorsed Darline Graham Nordone to run for a full term in the special Republican primary, significantly boosting her campaign and market position.
President Trump endorses Darline Graham Nordone for full Senate term
Darline Graham Nordone surges to 73%67%
President Donald Trump publicly endorsed Darline Graham Nordone to run for a full term in the special Republican primary, significantly boosting her campaign by aligning her with Trump's influential support base in South Carolina.
President Donald Trump endorses Darline Graham Nordone for full Senate term
Darline Graham Nordone surges to 69%51%
President Donald Trump publicly endorsed Darline Graham Nordone to run for a full term in the special Republican primary, boosting her profile and market position significantly. Trump's endorsement is influential in South Carolina GOP politics and shifted support towards Nordone.
Darline Graham Nordone sworn in as U.S. Senator
Darline Graham Nordone rises to 70%2%
Darline Graham Nordone was sworn in on July 14, 2026, officially becoming the junior U.S. Senator from South Carolina. Her swearing-in followed her appointment and was a significant step in her campaign to retain the seat in the special primary.
South Carolina Governor appoints Darline Graham Nordone to fill Lindsey Graham's Senate seat
Darline Graham Nordone surges to 63%57%
Governor Henry McMaster appointed Darline Graham Nordone, Lindsey Graham's sister, as interim U.S. Senator to serve the remainder of her brother's term, making her the first woman to represent South Carolina in the Senate. This appointment immediately positioned her as a key candidate in the upcoming special primary.
Governor McMaster appoints Darline Graham Nordone to fill Lindsey Graham's Senate seat
Darline Graham Nordone surges to 73%67%
Following Lindsey Graham's death, South Carolina Governor Henry McMaster appointed his sister Darline Graham Nordone as interim senator, making her the first woman to represent South Carolina in the U.S. Senate. This appointment gave her immediate incumbency advantage and name recognition, boosting her position in the special primary.
Darline Graham Nordone appointed to fill Lindsey Graham's Senate seat
Darline Graham Nordone surges to 68%62%
South Carolina Governor Henry McMaster appointed Darline Graham Nordone, sister of the late Lindsey Graham, to serve the remainder of his Senate term. This appointment made her the first woman to represent South Carolina in the U.S. Senate and positioned her as a key candidate in the upcoming special primary.
Governor appoints Darline Graham to fill Lindsey Graham's Senate seat
Darline Graham Nordone jumps to 15%9%
Following Senator Lindsey Graham's death on July 11, 2026, Governor Henry McMaster appointed Darline Graham, Lindsey Graham's sister, to serve the remainder of his term. This appointment gave her immediate incumbency status and increased her visibility ahead of the special primary.
Governor Henry McMaster appoints Darline Graham Nordone to fill Lindsey Graham's Senate seat
Darline Graham Nordone surges to 66%60%
Following Senator Lindsey Graham's death, Governor McMaster appointed his sister Darline Graham Nordone as interim senator, making her the first woman to represent South Carolina in the U.S. Senate. This appointment gave her immediate incumbency advantage and name recognition, boosting her market position.
Nancy Mace considers Senate bid but ultimately declines
Nancy Mace plunges to 0%46%
Rep. Nancy Mace initially considered running for Lindsey Graham's Senate seat following his death and began polling her viability. However, she later announced she would not run, citing unfinished business and endorsing Ralph Norman instead, impacting the race dynamics.
Rep. Nancy Mace considers but ultimately declines to run for Senate seat
Nancy Mace plunges to 0%46%
Rep. Nancy Mace initially considered running for the Senate seat but announced she would not run, citing unfinished business and focusing on justice issues. She later endorsed Ralph Norman, influencing his support base and market position.
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