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選挙·トランプ

ナンシー・ペロシ下院議員（ CA -11 ）の予備選挙で1位になるのは誰ですか？

Market icon
選挙·トランプ

ナンシー・ペロシ下院議員（ CA -11 ）の予備選挙で1位になるのは誰ですか？

スコット・ウィーナー 65%

サイカット・チャクラバルティ 22.7%

コニー・チャン 9.3%

ジンチャオ・ション <1%

Polymarket

$330,346 Vol.

スコット・ウィーナー 65%

サイカット・チャクラバルティ 22.7%

コニー・チャン 9.3%

ジンチャオ・ション <1%

Polymarket

$330,346 Vol.

スコット・ウィーナー

$33,384 Vol.

65%

サイカット・チャクラバルティ

$17,857 Vol.

23%

コニー・チャン

$200,465 Vol.

9%

ジンチャオ・ション

$39,075 Vol.

1%

ダレン・ヘルトン

$17,256 Vol.

<1%

デイビッド・ガネザー

$8,610 Vol.

<1%

コール・ベトルズ

$13,697 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.State Sen. Scott Wiener leads trader consensus at 64.5% implied probability to finish first in California's 11th Congressional District top-two primary on June 2, driven by the California Democratic Party's February endorsement, his fundraising dominance with over $2.8 million raised, and legislative experience appealing to establishment voters in the open seat left by Nancy Pelosi's retirement. A recent Data for Progress poll (March 3-12) showed Wiener at 32%, ahead of Saikat Chakrabarti's 20% and Connie Chan's 17%, aligning with market positioning amid recent debates highlighting differences on immigration, taxes, and transit. Chakrabarti's 22.9% reflects self-loans exceeding $1.4 million, aggressive canvassing, and Justice Democrats' endorsement, while Chan's 9.3% trails despite supervisor incumbency in a crowded nine-Democrat field.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
音量
$330,346
終了日
2026/06/02
マーケット開始日
Nov 24, 2025, 3:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.State Sen. Scott Wiener leads trader consensus at 64.5% implied probability to finish first in California's 11th Congressional District top-two primary on June 2, driven by the California Democratic Party's February endorsement, his fundraising dominance with over $2.8 million raised, and legislative experience appealing to establishment voters in the open seat left by Nancy Pelosi's retirement. A recent Data for Progress poll (March 3-12) showed Wiener at 32%, ahead of Saikat Chakrabarti's 20% and Connie Chan's 17%, aligning with market positioning amid recent debates highlighting differences on immigration, taxes, and transit. Chakrabarti's 22.9% reflects self-loans exceeding $1.4 million, aggressive canvassing, and Justice Democrats' endorsement, while Chan's 9.3% trails despite supervisor incumbency in a crowded nine-Democrat field.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
音量
$330,346
終了日
2026/06/02
マーケット開始日
Nov 24, 2025, 3:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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よくある質問

「ナンシー・ペロシ下院議員（ CA -11 ）の予備選挙で1位になるのは誰ですか？」はPolymarket上の7個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「スコット・ウィーナー」で65%、次いで「サイカット・チャクラバルティ」が23%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、65¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に65%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「ナンシー・ペロシ下院議員（ CA -11 ）の予備選挙で1位になるのは誰ですか？」は$330.3Kの総取引量を生み出しています（Nov 24, 2025のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「ナンシー・ペロシ下院議員（ CA -11 ）の予備選挙で1位になるのは誰ですか？」で取引するには、このページに記載されている7個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「ナンシー・ペロシ下院議員（ CA -11 ）の予備選挙で1位になるのは誰ですか？」の現在のフロントランナーは「スコット・ウィーナー」で65%であり、市場がこの結果に65%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「サイカット・チャクラバルティ」で23%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「ナンシー・ペロシ下院議員（ CA -11 ）の予備選挙で1位になるのは誰ですか？」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。