Market icon
政治·米国選挙

MA -08民主党予備選挙優勝者

Market icon
政治·米国選挙

MA -08民主党予備選挙優勝者

パトリック・ロース 36%

アンドリュー・ジルバーフィンク 4.7%

スティーブン・リンチ 0

Polymarket
NEW

パトリック・ロース 36%

アンドリュー・ジルバーフィンク 4.7%

スティーブン・リンチ 0

Polymarket
NEW

パトリック・ロース

$0 Vol.

36%

アンドリュー・ジルバーフィンク

$0 Vol.

5%

スティーブン・リンチ

$0 Vol.

51%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MA-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on September 1, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MA-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on September 1, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MA-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on September 1, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MA-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on September 1, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
音量
$0
終了日
Sep 1, 2026
マーケット開始日
Mar 3, 2026, 6:22 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MA-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on September 1, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MA-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on September 1, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MA-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on September 1, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MA-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on September 1, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Incumbent Rep. Stephen Lynch holds a trader consensus edge at 51% implied probability in the MA-08 Democratic primary, driven by his long tenure since 2013, dominant fundraising exceeding $800,000 per recent FEC filings, and a mid-July district poll showing him leading 48%-32% over challenger Patrick Roath. Roath's 35% reflects growing progressive support criticizing Lynch's moderate voting record on issues like Israel aid, bolstered by grassroots momentum and a recent campaign event drawing strong turnout. Andrew Zylberfink lags at 4.6% amid minimal visibility and resources. No major shifts in the past 48 hours, but upcoming August forums and early voting could influence the closely contested September 3 primary.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

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よくある質問

「MA -08民主党予備選挙優勝者」はPolymarket上の3個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「スティーブン・リンチ」で51%、次いで「パトリック・ロース」が36%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、51¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に51%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

「MA -08民主党予備選挙優勝者」はPolymarket上で新しく作成された市場です（Mar 3, 2026開始）。早期の市場として、最初のトレーダーの一人としてオッズを設定し、市場の初期価格シグナルを確立するチャンスです。このページをブックマークして、取引量と活動を追跡することもできます。

「MA -08民主党予備選挙優勝者」で取引するには、このページに記載されている3個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「MA -08民主党予備選挙優勝者」の現在のフロントランナーは「スティーブン・リンチ」で51%であり、市場がこの結果に51%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「パトリック・ロース」で36%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「MA -08民主党予備選挙優勝者」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。