New Jersey's 10th Congressional District remains a Democratic stronghold with a D+27 partisan voter index, where incumbent Bill Pascrell secured a decisive June primary win against minimal challengers, reinforcing trader consensus at 92.5% for the Democratic Party. Recent polling averages show Pascrell leading Republican nominee Carmen Bucco by 30+ points, mirroring the district's urban demographics in Newark and Jersey City that delivered Biden 71% of the vote in 2020. Absent major catalysts in the past month—like national GOP turnout surges, Pascrell health issues, or scandals—upset odds stay slim at 6.5%, though Election Day dynamics or late endorsements could theoretically narrow the gap before November 5 resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
93%
共和党
7%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
$0 Vol.
93%
共和党
$0 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).New Jersey's 10th Congressional District remains a Democratic stronghold with a D+27 partisan voter index, where incumbent Bill Pascrell secured a decisive June primary win against minimal challengers, reinforcing trader consensus at 92.5% for the Democratic Party. Recent polling averages show Pascrell leading Republican nominee Carmen Bucco by 30+ points, mirroring the district's urban demographics in Newark and Jersey City that delivered Biden 71% of the vote in 2020. Absent major catalysts in the past month—like national GOP turnout surges, Pascrell health issues, or scandals—upset odds stay slim at 6.5%, though Election Day dynamics or late endorsements could theoretically narrow the gap before November 5 resolution.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
音量
$0終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).New Jersey's 10th Congressional District remains a Democratic stronghold with a D+27 partisan voter index, where incumbent Bill Pascrell secured a decisive June primary win against minimal challengers, reinforcing trader consensus at 92.5% for the Democratic Party. Recent polling averages show Pascrell leading Republican nominee Carmen Bucco by 30+ points, mirroring the district's urban demographics in Newark and Jersey City that delivered Biden 71% of the vote in 2020. Absent major catalysts in the past month—like national GOP turnout surges, Pascrell health issues, or scandals—upset odds stay slim at 6.5%, though Election Day dynamics or late endorsements could theoretically narrow the gap before November 5 resolution.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$0終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...New Jersey's 10th Congressional District remains a Democratic stronghold with a D+27 partisan voter index, where incumbent Bill Pascrell secured a decisive June primary win against minimal challengers, reinforcing trader consensus at 92.5% for the Democratic Party. Recent polling averages show Pascrell leading Republican nominee Carmen Bucco by 30+ points, mirroring the district's urban demographics in Newark and Jersey City that delivered Biden 71% of the vote in 2020. Absent major catalysts in the past month—like national GOP turnout surges, Pascrell health issues, or scandals—upset odds stay slim at 6.5%, though Election Day dynamics or late endorsements could theoretically narrow the gap before November 5 resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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