Recent polling averages place Democrat James Talarico narrowly ahead of or tied with Republican Ken Paxton in the Texas US Senate race, with multiple late-October surveys showing leads of one to four points within margins of error. Talarico's record third-quarter fundraising exceeding $60 million and total cycle hauls above $130 million contrast sharply with Paxton's lower totals, supporting stronger ground operations and visibility ahead of November 3. Paxton's primary victory over incumbent John Cornyn, backed by President Trump, and heavy outside spending including from aligned super PACs have kept the contest competitive in a state without a Democratic Senate win since 1994. Forecasters rate the open seat a toss-up, with early voting underway at high volumes. Trader consensus at 68.5% for Talarico reflects these polling trends and resource advantages in the final week.
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