James Talarico's victory in the March 3 Democratic primary over Jasmine Crockett sets him as the nominee against the winner of the Republican runoff on May 26 between incumbent Senator John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton, following Cornyn's narrow 42%-40.5% primary edge. Post-primary polls from Impact Research and Public Policy Polling show Talarico holding slim leads in hypothetical general election matchups—43%-41% over Cornyn and 44%-43% over Paxton—but trader consensus favors Republicans at 57% implied probability, citing Texas' GOP registration advantage, historical Senate hold patterns for incumbents, and Talarico's progressive stances on abortion and climate potentially alienating swing voters in this battleground state. Recent Paxton endorsements, including Rep. Brandon Gill's on April 2, signal conservative momentum ahead of the runoff that could unify the GOP base.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$161,488 Vol.
$161,488 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
57%
民主党
44%
$161,488 Vol.
$161,488 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
$88,851 Vol.
57%
民主党
$72,637 Vol.
44%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.James Talarico's victory in the March 3 Democratic primary over Jasmine Crockett sets him as the nominee against the winner of the Republican runoff on May 26 between incumbent Senator John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton, following Cornyn's narrow 42%-40.5% primary edge. Post-primary polls from Impact Research and Public Policy Polling show Talarico holding slim leads in hypothetical general election matchups—43%-41% over Cornyn and 44%-43% over Paxton—but trader consensus favors Republicans at 57% implied probability, citing Texas' GOP registration advantage, historical Senate hold patterns for incumbents, and Talarico's progressive stances on abortion and climate potentially alienating swing voters in this battleground state. Recent Paxton endorsements, including Rep. Brandon Gill's on April 2, signal conservative momentum ahead of the runoff that could unify the GOP base.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
マーケット開始日： Oct 13, 2025, 4:57 PM ET
音量
$161,488終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 4:57 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.James Talarico's victory in the March 3 Democratic primary over Jasmine Crockett sets him as the nominee against the winner of the Republican runoff on May 26 between incumbent Senator John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton, following Cornyn's narrow 42%-40.5% primary edge. Post-primary polls from Impact Research and Public Policy Polling show Talarico holding slim leads in hypothetical general election matchups—43%-41% over Cornyn and 44%-43% over Paxton—but trader consensus favors Republicans at 57% implied probability, citing Texas' GOP registration advantage, historical Senate hold patterns for incumbents, and Talarico's progressive stances on abortion and climate potentially alienating swing voters in this battleground state. Recent Paxton endorsements, including Rep. Brandon Gill's on April 2, signal conservative momentum ahead of the runoff that could unify the GOP base.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
音量
$161,488終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 4:57 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...James Talarico's victory in the March 3 Democratic primary over Jasmine Crockett sets him as the nominee against the winner of the Republican runoff on May 26 between incumbent Senator John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton, following Cornyn's narrow 42%-40.5% primary edge. Post-primary polls from Impact Research and Public Policy Polling show Talarico holding slim leads in hypothetical general election matchups—43%-41% over Cornyn and 44%-43% over Paxton—but trader consensus favors Republicans at 57% implied probability, citing Texas' GOP registration advantage, historical Senate hold patterns for incumbents, and Talarico's progressive stances on abortion and climate potentially alienating swing voters in this battleground state. Recent Paxton endorsements, including Rep. Brandon Gill's on April 2, signal conservative momentum ahead of the runoff that could unify the GOP base.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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