Los Angeles uses a nonpartisan top-two primary system in which a candidate must secure more than 50 percent of the vote on June 2 to win outright and avoid a November runoff. Recent polls and early returns show incumbent Karen Bass leading with roughly 34 percent, followed by Nithya Raman at 28–29 percent and Spencer Pratt near 26 percent, with the remaining vote fragmented among more than a dozen other candidates. This split has kept every contender well below the majority threshold despite weeks of campaigning focused on homelessness, public safety, and recovery from recent wildfires. With the bulk of ballots already counted and no candidate positioned to close the gap through remaining mail or provisional votes, traders assign near-certainty to the absence of an outright first-round winner. Only an unprecedented shift in uncounted ballots or a late disqualification could alter that assessment.