Incumbent Rep. Thomas Massie holds a commanding trader consensus at 68.5% to win Kentucky's 4th District Republican primary on May 19, reflecting his strong fundraising surge—including a record-breaking money bomb this week—and entrenched libertarian base despite President Trump's repeated attacks labeling him disloyal. Challenger Ed Gallrein, at 30%, benefits from Trump's March 11 rally in Hebron and early 2026 hauls topping $1.2 million, but Massie's March 19 ad branding Gallrein a "Trump traitor" has reinforced doubts among voters prioritizing independence over MAGA alignment. Northern Kentucky voter interviews show mixed sentiment, with incumbency and recent cash flow tipping odds toward Massie amid no clear polls. Minor candidates trail far behind.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日トーマス・マッシー 70%
エド・ガルレイン 30.0%
ニコール・リー・エシントン <1%
ロバート・ウェルズ・ジュニア <1%
$150,961 Vol.
$150,961 Vol.
トーマス・マッシー
70%
エド・ガルレイン
30%
ニコール・リー・エシントン
<1%
ロバート・ウェルズ・ジュニア
<1%
トーマス・マッシー 70%
エド・ガルレイン 30.0%
ニコール・リー・エシントン <1%
ロバート・ウェルズ・ジュニア <1%
$150,961 Vol.
$150,961 Vol.
トーマス・マッシー
70%
エド・ガルレイン
30%
ニコール・リー・エシントン
<1%
ロバート・ウェルズ・ジュニア
<1%
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
マーケット開始日： Dec 1, 2025, 4:51 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Thomas Massie holds a commanding trader consensus at 68.5% to win Kentucky's 4th District Republican primary on May 19, reflecting his strong fundraising surge—including a record-breaking money bomb this week—and entrenched libertarian base despite President Trump's repeated attacks labeling him disloyal. Challenger Ed Gallrein, at 30%, benefits from Trump's March 11 rally in Hebron and early 2026 hauls topping $1.2 million, but Massie's March 19 ad branding Gallrein a "Trump traitor" has reinforced doubts among voters prioritizing independence over MAGA alignment. Northern Kentucky voter interviews show mixed sentiment, with incumbency and recent cash flow tipping odds toward Massie amid no clear polls. Minor candidates trail far behind.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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