Recent polls from Datafolha and AtlasIntel/Quaest, released in the past week, show incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro by narrow margins of 2–6% in first-round scenarios, with Lula at 43–48% and Flávio at 39–43%, far short of the 50%+ needed for outright victory. This tight race among fragmented fields, including lower shares for Renan Santos, Ratinho Júnior, and Tarcísio de Freitas, drives trader consensus toward Lula da Silva <5% margin (36.5%) as the frontrunner, reflecting Flávio's rapid gains amid economic discontent and opposition consolidation. Flávio <5% (25.5%) and Lula 5–10% (17.5%) outcomes capture the closely contested nature, with runoff likely on October 25 absent a surprise surge before the October 4 first round.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日ルーラ・ダ・シルヴァ <5% 37%
フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ <5% 26%
ルラ・ダ・シルヴァ 5〜10％ 18%
フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ 5～10％ 8.2%
$13,864 Vol.
$13,864 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
ルラ・ダ・シルヴァ 15％以上
6%
ルラ・ダ・シルバ 10〜15％
3%
ルラ・ダ・シルヴァ 5〜10％
18%
ルーラ・ダ・シルヴァ <5%
37%
フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ10％以上
5%
フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ 5～10％
8%
フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ <5%
26%
レナン・サントスの勝利
6%
タルシジオ・デ・フレイタスの勝利
2%
ラチーニョ・ジュニオールの勝利
3%
その他
4%
ルーラ・ダ・シルヴァ <5% 37%
フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ <5% 26%
ルラ・ダ・シルヴァ 5〜10％ 18%
フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ 5～10％ 8.2%
$13,864 Vol.
$13,864 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
ルラ・ダ・シルヴァ 15％以上
$3,547 Vol.
6%
ルラ・ダ・シルバ 10〜15％
$1,310 Vol.
3%
ルラ・ダ・シルヴァ 5〜10％
$1,702 Vol.
18%
ルーラ・ダ・シルヴァ <5%
$1,560 Vol.
37%
フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ10％以上
$675 Vol.
5%
フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ 5～10％
$678 Vol.
8%
フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ <5%
$1,430 Vol.
26%
レナン・サントスの勝利
$808 Vol.
6%
タルシジオ・デ・フレイタスの勝利
$521 Vol.
2%
ラチーニョ・ジュニオールの勝利
$808 Vol.
3%
その他
$825 Vol.
4%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls from Datafolha and AtlasIntel/Quaest, released in the past week, show incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro by narrow margins of 2–6% in first-round scenarios, with Lula at 43–48% and Flávio at 39–43%, far short of the 50%+ needed for outright victory. This tight race among fragmented fields, including lower shares for Renan Santos, Ratinho Júnior, and Tarcísio de Freitas, drives trader consensus toward Lula da Silva <5% margin (36.5%) as the frontrunner, reflecting Flávio's rapid gains amid economic discontent and opposition consolidation. Flávio <5% (25.5%) and Lula 5–10% (17.5%) outcomes capture the closely contested nature, with runoff likely on October 25 absent a surprise surge before the October 4 first round.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
マーケット開始日： Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET
音量
$13,864終了日
Oct 4, 2026マーケット開始日
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls from Datafolha and AtlasIntel/Quaest, released in the past week, show incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro by narrow margins of 2–6% in first-round scenarios, with Lula at 43–48% and Flávio at 39–43%, far short of the 50%+ needed for outright victory. This tight race among fragmented fields, including lower shares for Renan Santos, Ratinho Júnior, and Tarcísio de Freitas, drives trader consensus toward Lula da Silva <5% margin (36.5%) as the frontrunner, reflecting Flávio's rapid gains amid economic discontent and opposition consolidation. Flávio <5% (25.5%) and Lula 5–10% (17.5%) outcomes capture the closely contested nature, with runoff likely on October 25 absent a surprise surge before the October 4 first round.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
音量
$13,864終了日
Oct 4, 2026マーケット開始日
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polls from Datafolha and AtlasIntel/Quaest, released in the past week, show incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro by narrow margins of 2–6% in first-round scenarios, with Lula at 43–48% and Flávio at 39–43%, far short of the 50%+ needed for outright victory. This tight race among fragmented fields, including lower shares for Renan Santos, Ratinho Júnior, and Tarcísio de Freitas, drives trader consensus toward Lula da Silva <5% margin (36.5%) as the frontrunner, reflecting Flávio's rapid gains amid economic discontent and opposition consolidation. Flávio <5% (25.5%) and Lula 5–10% (17.5%) outcomes capture the closely contested nature, with runoff likely on October 25 absent a surprise surge before the October 4 first round.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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