President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads first-round polls for Brazil's October 4 presidential election at around 46%, with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro trailing closely at 40% in the latest AtlasIntel survey (March 18-23), positioning both as frontrunners to advance to a potential October 25 runoff under Brazil's two-round system requiring over 50% to win outright. Trader consensus reflects a tightening race driven by Bolsonaro's rapid gains—up from 33-40% in February—amid opposition consolidation following Ratinho Júnior's withdrawal on March 23 and Lula's slightly declining approval amid economic pressures. Runoff simulations show a statistical tie (Flávio 47.6%, Lula 46.6%), underscoring uncertainty; upcoming debates, candidate registrations, and regional dynamics could shift voter blocs in this polarized contest.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$205,854 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ
87%
ルイス・イナシオ・ルラ・ダ・シルバ
73%
フェルナンド・ハダジ
10%
タルシジオ・デ・フレイタス
5%
ミシェル・ボルソナロ
4%
ジャイール・ボルソナーロ
3%
$205,854 Vol.
フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ
$15,094 Vol.
87%
ルイス・イナシオ・ルラ・ダ・シルバ
$96,358 Vol.
73%
フェルナンド・ハダジ
$29,770 Vol.
10%
タルシジオ・デ・フレイタス
$55,472 Vol.
5%
ミシェル・ボルソナロ
$0 Vol.
4%
ジャイール・ボルソナーロ
$9,161 Vol.
3%
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads first-round polls for Brazil's October 4 presidential election at around 46%, with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro trailing closely at 40% in the latest AtlasIntel survey (March 18-23), positioning both as frontrunners to advance to a potential October 25 runoff under Brazil's two-round system requiring over 50% to win outright. Trader consensus reflects a tightening race driven by Bolsonaro's rapid gains—up from 33-40% in February—amid opposition consolidation following Ratinho Júnior's withdrawal on March 23 and Lula's slightly declining approval amid economic pressures. Runoff simulations show a statistical tie (Flávio 47.6%, Lula 46.6%), underscoring uncertainty; upcoming debates, candidate registrations, and regional dynamics could shift voter blocs in this polarized contest.
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
マーケット開始日： Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ET
音量
$205,854終了日
Oct 4, 2026マーケット開始日
Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads first-round polls for Brazil's October 4 presidential election at around 46%, with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro trailing closely at 40% in the latest AtlasIntel survey (March 18-23), positioning both as frontrunners to advance to a potential October 25 runoff under Brazil's two-round system requiring over 50% to win outright. Trader consensus reflects a tightening race driven by Bolsonaro's rapid gains—up from 33-40% in February—amid opposition consolidation following Ratinho Júnior's withdrawal on March 23 and Lula's slightly declining approval amid economic pressures. Runoff simulations show a statistical tie (Flávio 47.6%, Lula 46.6%), underscoring uncertainty; upcoming debates, candidate registrations, and regional dynamics could shift voter blocs in this polarized contest.
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
音量
$205,854終了日
Oct 4, 2026マーケット開始日
Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads first-round polls for Brazil's October 4 presidential election at around 46%, with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro trailing closely at 40% in the latest AtlasIntel survey (March 18-23), positioning both as frontrunners to advance to a potential October 25 runoff under Brazil's two-round system requiring over 50% to win outright. Trader consensus reflects a tightening race driven by Bolsonaro's rapid gains—up from 33-40% in February—amid opposition consolidation following Ratinho Júnior's withdrawal on March 23 and Lula's slightly declining approval amid economic pressures. Runoff simulations show a statistical tie (Flávio 47.6%, Lula 46.6%), underscoring uncertainty; upcoming debates, candidate registrations, and regional dynamics could shift voter blocs in this polarized contest.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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