President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in recent first-round polls for Brazil's October 4 presidential election, with the latest AtlasIntel survey (March 18-23) showing Lula at 46% and Bolsonaro at 40% among decided voters, far ahead of others in a fragmented field. No candidate nears the 50% threshold needed to avoid a runoff on October 25, making these two the consensus top-two advancees per multiple pollsters like Datafolha and Quaest. Flávio Bolsonaro's surge—tying or edging Lula in runoff simulations—stems from Jair Bolsonaro's endorsement and Ratinho Júnior's March 23 withdrawal, consolidating right-wing support. Traders eye party conventions through June, candidate registrations by August 15, and economic trends amid Lula's incumbency advantage in this two-round system.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$207,676 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ
87%
ルイス・イナシオ・ルラ・ダ・シルバ
75%
フェルナンド・ハダジ
10%
タルシジオ・デ・フレイタス
5%
ミシェル・ボルソナロ
4%
ジャイール・ボルソナーロ
4%
$207,676 Vol.
フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ
$15,094 Vol.
87%
ルイス・イナシオ・ルラ・ダ・シルバ
$96,949 Vol.
75%
フェルナンド・ハダジ
$29,950 Vol.
10%
タルシジオ・デ・フレイタス
$56,523 Vol.
5%
ミシェル・ボルソナロ
$0 Vol.
4%
ジャイール・ボルソナーロ
$9,161 Vol.
4%
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in recent first-round polls for Brazil's October 4 presidential election, with the latest AtlasIntel survey (March 18-23) showing Lula at 46% and Bolsonaro at 40% among decided voters, far ahead of others in a fragmented field. No candidate nears the 50% threshold needed to avoid a runoff on October 25, making these two the consensus top-two advancees per multiple pollsters like Datafolha and Quaest. Flávio Bolsonaro's surge—tying or edging Lula in runoff simulations—stems from Jair Bolsonaro's endorsement and Ratinho Júnior's March 23 withdrawal, consolidating right-wing support. Traders eye party conventions through June, candidate registrations by August 15, and economic trends amid Lula's incumbency advantage in this two-round system.
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
マーケット開始日： Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ET
音量
$207,676終了日
Oct 4, 2026マーケット開始日
Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in recent first-round polls for Brazil's October 4 presidential election, with the latest AtlasIntel survey (March 18-23) showing Lula at 46% and Bolsonaro at 40% among decided voters, far ahead of others in a fragmented field. No candidate nears the 50% threshold needed to avoid a runoff on October 25, making these two the consensus top-two advancees per multiple pollsters like Datafolha and Quaest. Flávio Bolsonaro's surge—tying or edging Lula in runoff simulations—stems from Jair Bolsonaro's endorsement and Ratinho Júnior's March 23 withdrawal, consolidating right-wing support. Traders eye party conventions through June, candidate registrations by August 15, and economic trends amid Lula's incumbency advantage in this two-round system.
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
音量
$207,676終了日
Oct 4, 2026マーケット開始日
Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in recent first-round polls for Brazil's October 4 presidential election, with the latest AtlasIntel survey (March 18-23) showing Lula at 46% and Bolsonaro at 40% among decided voters, far ahead of others in a fragmented field. No candidate nears the 50% threshold needed to avoid a runoff on October 25, making these two the consensus top-two advancees per multiple pollsters like Datafolha and Quaest. Flávio Bolsonaro's surge—tying or edging Lula in runoff simulations—stems from Jair Bolsonaro's endorsement and Ratinho Júnior's March 23 withdrawal, consolidating right-wing support. Traders eye party conventions through June, candidate registrations by August 15, and economic trends amid Lula's incumbency advantage in this two-round system.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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