Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns over 98% implied probability to fewer than 20 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on any March day, per IMF Portwatch data, reflecting severe disruptions from the ongoing Iran-U.S. conflict that slashed daily transits by 95% for much of the month. Brent crude surged past $118 per barrel by March 31 amid fears of prolonged chokepoint closure—handling 20% of global oil flows—while VLCC tanker rates from the Middle East to Asia hit multi-decade highs exceeding $400,000 daily, compounded by soaring war-risk insurance premiums. Late-March upticks, including 20+ vessels post-March 28 and Chinese transits, failed to breach thresholds, with final IMF Portwatch releases for March 31 poised to resolve the market.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$634,288 Vol.
2026/03/31
20以上
3%
40隻以上
<1%
60隻以上
<1%
80隻以上
<1%
$634,288 Vol.
20以上
$292,079 Vol.
3%
40隻以上
$105,665 Vol.
<1%
60隻以上
$90,771 Vol.
<1%
80隻以上
$145,773 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above __ for any date between market creation and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns over 98% implied probability to fewer than 20 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on any March day, per IMF Portwatch data, reflecting severe disruptions from the ongoing Iran-U.S. conflict that slashed daily transits by 95% for much of the month. Brent crude surged past $118 per barrel by March 31 amid fears of prolonged chokepoint closure—handling 20% of global oil flows—while VLCC tanker rates from the Middle East to Asia hit multi-decade highs exceeding $400,000 daily, compounded by soaring war-risk insurance premiums. Late-March upticks, including 20+ vessels post-March 28 and Chinese transits, failed to breach thresholds, with final IMF Portwatch releases for March 31 poised to resolve the market.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above __ for any date between market creation and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
マーケット開始日： Mar 9, 2026, 2:21 PM ET
音量
$634,288終了日
2026/03/31マーケット開始日
Mar 9, 2026, 2:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above __ for any date between market creation and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns over 98% implied probability to fewer than 20 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on any March day, per IMF Portwatch data, reflecting severe disruptions from the ongoing Iran-U.S. conflict that slashed daily transits by 95% for much of the month. Brent crude surged past $118 per barrel by March 31 amid fears of prolonged chokepoint closure—handling 20% of global oil flows—while VLCC tanker rates from the Middle East to Asia hit multi-decade highs exceeding $400,000 daily, compounded by soaring war-risk insurance premiums. Late-March upticks, including 20+ vessels post-March 28 and Chinese transits, failed to breach thresholds, with final IMF Portwatch releases for March 31 poised to resolve the market.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above __ for any date between market creation and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
音量
$634,288終了日
2026/03/31マーケット開始日
Mar 9, 2026, 2:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns over 98% implied probability to fewer than 20 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on any March day, per IMF Portwatch data, reflecting severe disruptions from the ongoing Iran-U.S. conflict that slashed daily transits by 95% for much of the month. Brent crude surged past $118 per barrel by March 31 amid fears of prolonged chokepoint closure—handling 20% of global oil flows—while VLCC tanker rates from the Middle East to Asia hit multi-decade highs exceeding $400,000 daily, compounded by soaring war-risk insurance premiums. Late-March upticks, including 20+ vessels post-March 28 and Chinese transits, failed to breach thresholds, with final IMF Portwatch releases for March 31 poised to resolve the market.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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