Trader consensus on Polymarket prices negligible implied probability for 20 or more ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on any March day, reflecting IMF Portwatch data showing daily arrivals peaking at 18 on March 1 before plummeting to 0-6 amid the 2026 crisis. Iran's IRGC-imposed tolls and selective approvals for non-hostile vessels—such as Pakistani and Japanese ships—have sustained single-digit flows through chokepoint accounting for 20% of seaborne oil trade, spiking Brent crude to $116/bbl intramonth highs and VLCC charter rates above $200,000/day with over 150 tankers anchored. Upcoming IMF final tallies for March 31 and U.S.-extended deadlines for Iranian reopening could trigger volatility if strikes target energy infrastructure.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$635,351 Vol.
2026/03/31
20以上
2%
40隻以上
<1%
60隻以上
<1%
80隻以上
<1%
$635,351 Vol.
20以上
$292,147 Vol.
2%
40隻以上
$106,348 Vol.
<1%
60隻以上
$90,976 Vol.
<1%
80隻以上
$145,880 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above __ for any date between market creation and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices negligible implied probability for 20 or more ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on any March day, reflecting IMF Portwatch data showing daily arrivals peaking at 18 on March 1 before plummeting to 0-6 amid the 2026 crisis. Iran's IRGC-imposed tolls and selective approvals for non-hostile vessels—such as Pakistani and Japanese ships—have sustained single-digit flows through chokepoint accounting for 20% of seaborne oil trade, spiking Brent crude to $116/bbl intramonth highs and VLCC charter rates above $200,000/day with over 150 tankers anchored. Upcoming IMF final tallies for March 31 and U.S.-extended deadlines for Iranian reopening could trigger volatility if strikes target energy infrastructure.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above __ for any date between market creation and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
マーケット開始日： Mar 9, 2026, 2:21 PM ET
音量
$635,351終了日
2026/03/31マーケット開始日
Mar 9, 2026, 2:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above __ for any date between market creation and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices negligible implied probability for 20 or more ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on any March day, reflecting IMF Portwatch data showing daily arrivals peaking at 18 on March 1 before plummeting to 0-6 amid the 2026 crisis. Iran's IRGC-imposed tolls and selective approvals for non-hostile vessels—such as Pakistani and Japanese ships—have sustained single-digit flows through chokepoint accounting for 20% of seaborne oil trade, spiking Brent crude to $116/bbl intramonth highs and VLCC charter rates above $200,000/day with over 150 tankers anchored. Upcoming IMF final tallies for March 31 and U.S.-extended deadlines for Iranian reopening could trigger volatility if strikes target energy infrastructure.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above __ for any date between market creation and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
音量
$635,351終了日
2026/03/31マーケット開始日
Mar 9, 2026, 2:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices negligible implied probability for 20 or more ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on any March day, reflecting IMF Portwatch data showing daily arrivals peaking at 18 on March 1 before plummeting to 0-6 amid the 2026 crisis. Iran's IRGC-imposed tolls and selective approvals for non-hostile vessels—such as Pakistani and Japanese ships—have sustained single-digit flows through chokepoint accounting for 20% of seaborne oil trade, spiking Brent crude to $116/bbl intramonth highs and VLCC charter rates above $200,000/day with over 150 tankers anchored. Upcoming IMF final tallies for March 31 and U.S.-extended deadlines for Iranian reopening could trigger volatility if strikes target energy infrastructure.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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