Trader consensus favors "No" at 80.5% implied probability that no country will expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31, reflecting the rarity of such escalatory diplomatic actions amid ongoing global tensions. In late March 2026, amid Middle East flare-ups—including suspected Iranian drone strikes on U.S. facilities in Riyadh and partial evacuations from consulates in Turkey and Saudi Arabia—Arab states like Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar expelled Iranian envoys, but none targeted U.S. ambassadors. South Africa summoned its U.S. ambassador over criticisms but stopped short of declaring persona non grata, echoing 2025 bilateral strains without further rupture. With no verified expulsions in 2026 and high economic costs for most nations, traders see limited catalysts for change despite flashpoints like sanctions or territorial disputes.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/12/31
新規
新規
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus favors "No" at 80.5% implied probability that no country will expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31, reflecting the rarity of such escalatory diplomatic actions amid ongoing global tensions. In late March 2026, amid Middle East flare-ups—including suspected Iranian drone strikes on U.S. facilities in Riyadh and partial evacuations from consulates in Turkey and Saudi Arabia—Arab states like Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar expelled Iranian envoys, but none targeted U.S. ambassadors. South Africa summoned its U.S. ambassador over criticisms but stopped short of declaring persona non grata, echoing 2025 bilateral strains without further rupture. With no verified expulsions in 2026 and high economic costs for most nations, traders see limited catalysts for change despite flashpoints like sanctions or territorial disputes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ET
音量
$3終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus favors "No" at 80.5% implied probability that no country will expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31, reflecting the rarity of such escalatory diplomatic actions amid ongoing global tensions. In late March 2026, amid Middle East flare-ups—including suspected Iranian drone strikes on U.S. facilities in Riyadh and partial evacuations from consulates in Turkey and Saudi Arabia—Arab states like Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar expelled Iranian envoys, but none targeted U.S. ambassadors. South Africa summoned its U.S. ambassador over criticisms but stopped short of declaring persona non grata, echoing 2025 bilateral strains without further rupture. With no verified expulsions in 2026 and high economic costs for most nations, traders see limited catalysts for change despite flashpoints like sanctions or territorial disputes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$3終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favors "No" at 80.5% implied probability that no country will expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31, reflecting the rarity of such escalatory diplomatic actions amid ongoing global tensions. In late March 2026, amid Middle East flare-ups—including suspected Iranian drone strikes on U.S. facilities in Riyadh and partial evacuations from consulates in Turkey and Saudi Arabia—Arab states like Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar expelled Iranian envoys, but none targeted U.S. ambassadors. South Africa summoned its U.S. ambassador over criticisms but stopped short of declaring persona non grata, echoing 2025 bilateral strains without further rupture. With no verified expulsions in 2026 and high economic costs for most nations, traders see limited catalysts for change despite flashpoints like sanctions or territorial disputes.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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