Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 87% implied probability to a SELIC rate decrease at the Banco Central do Brasil's June 2026 Copom meeting, reflecting the March 17-18 decision to initiate easing with a cautious 25-basis-point cut to 14.75%—the first in two years after prolonged holds at 15% amid oil shocks from Middle East tensions. Despite March IPCA inflation accelerating to 4.14% year-over-year, the highest for the month since 2022, Focus survey economists project year-end SELIC at 12.5%, implying ~225 basis points of further cuts, supported by 2026 GDP growth forecasts of 1.6% and stabilizing inflation expectations near 4.4%. No-change (10%) and hike (3.5%) odds remain slim barring renewed inflationary surges, with the April 28-29 meeting as the next key catalyst.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日引き下げ 87%
変更なし 10%
引き上げ 3.5%
$23,643 Vol.
$23,643 Vol.
2026/06/16
引き上げ
4%
変更なし
10%
引き下げ
87%
引き下げ 87%
変更なし 10%
引き上げ 3.5%
$23,643 Vol.
$23,643 Vol.
2026/06/16
引き上げ
$12,661 Vol.
4%
変更なし
$4,063 Vol.
10%
引き下げ
$6,919 Vol.
87%
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the Selic rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Brazil's June 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its June 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for June 15-16, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 87% implied probability to a SELIC rate decrease at the Banco Central do Brasil's June 2026 Copom meeting, reflecting the March 17-18 decision to initiate easing with a cautious 25-basis-point cut to 14.75%—the first in two years after prolonged holds at 15% amid oil shocks from Middle East tensions. Despite March IPCA inflation accelerating to 4.14% year-over-year, the highest for the month since 2022, Focus survey economists project year-end SELIC at 12.5%, implying ~225 basis points of further cuts, supported by 2026 GDP growth forecasts of 1.6% and stabilizing inflation expectations near 4.4%. No-change (10%) and hike (3.5%) odds remain slim barring renewed inflationary surges, with the April 28-29 meeting as the next key catalyst.
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the Selic rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Brazil's June 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its June 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for June 15-16, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its June 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for June 15-16, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
マーケット開始日： Mar 24, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
音量
$23,643終了日
2026/06/16マーケット開始日
Mar 24, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the Selic rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Brazil's June 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its June 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for June 15-16, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 87% implied probability to a SELIC rate decrease at the Banco Central do Brasil's June 2026 Copom meeting, reflecting the March 17-18 decision to initiate easing with a cautious 25-basis-point cut to 14.75%—the first in two years after prolonged holds at 15% amid oil shocks from Middle East tensions. Despite March IPCA inflation accelerating to 4.14% year-over-year, the highest for the month since 2022, Focus survey economists project year-end SELIC at 12.5%, implying ~225 basis points of further cuts, supported by 2026 GDP growth forecasts of 1.6% and stabilizing inflation expectations near 4.4%. No-change (10%) and hike (3.5%) odds remain slim barring renewed inflationary surges, with the April 28-29 meeting as the next key catalyst.
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the Selic rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Brazil's June 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its June 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for June 15-16, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its June 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for June 15-16, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
音量
$23,643終了日
2026/06/16マーケット開始日
Mar 24, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 87% implied probability to a SELIC rate decrease at the Banco Central do Brasil's June 2026 Copom meeting, reflecting the March 17-18 decision to initiate easing with a cautious 25-basis-point cut to 14.75%—the first in two years after prolonged holds at 15% amid oil shocks from Middle East tensions. Despite March IPCA inflation accelerating to 4.14% year-over-year, the highest for the month since 2022, Focus survey economists project year-end SELIC at 12.5%, implying ~225 basis points of further cuts, supported by 2026 GDP growth forecasts of 1.6% and stabilizing inflation expectations near 4.4%. No-change (10%) and hike (3.5%) odds remain slim barring renewed inflationary surges, with the April 28-29 meeting as the next key catalyst.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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