Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty that U.S. inflation will peak above 3% in 2026, with 99% implied probability for that threshold and 88% for above 3.5%, amid the Federal Reserve's March 18 dot plot lifting median year-end PCE inflation projections to 2.7%—up 30 basis points from December—due to sticky core services and potential tariff impacts. February 2026 CPI remained steady at 2.4% year-over-year, but J.P. Morgan forecasts 3.2% core CPI amid oil volatility and supply risks, contrasting Cleveland Fed's 2.26% 10-year expectations. Watch March CPI (due ~April 10) and April 28-29 FOMC for shifts in rate path pricing.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$392,917 Vol.
3%超
100%
3.5%超
91%
4%超
59%
5%超
34%
6%超
20%
8%超
10%
10%超
7%
$392,917 Vol.
3%超
100%
3.5%超
91%
4%超
59%
5%超
34%
6%超
20%
8%超
10%
10%超
7%
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
マーケット開始日: Nov 13, 2025, 4:31 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty that U.S. inflation will peak above 3% in 2026, with 99% implied probability for that threshold and 88% for above 3.5%, amid the Federal Reserve's March 18 dot plot lifting median year-end PCE inflation projections to 2.7%—up 30 basis points from December—due to sticky core services and potential tariff impacts. February 2026 CPI remained steady at 2.4% year-over-year, but J.P. Morgan forecasts 3.2% core CPI amid oil volatility and supply risks, contrasting Cleveland Fed's 2.26% 10-year expectations. Watch March CPI (due ~April 10) and April 28-29 FOMC for shifts in rate path pricing.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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