Recent moderation in South African CPI, falling to 4.3% year-over-year in July 2026 from a 5.0% June peak driven by transport costs, has tempered but not eliminated upside risks from Middle East oil shocks and El Niño-related food pressures. The South African Reserve Bank’s 7% policy rate and 3% inflation target anchor expectations, with analyst surveys holding 2026 headline forecasts at 4.4% despite weak Q2 GDP. Trader positioning on Polymarket, with >5.0% leading at 43.2% implied probability narrowly ahead of the 4.7-5.0% bucket, reflects ongoing uncertainty over whether persistent supply-side factors will keep the full-year average in the upper target band or allow convergence toward 4.4-4.7%. The September 23 MPC decision and August CPI release represent immediate swing factors that could shift the rate path priced into forward markets.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日>5.0％ 43.0%
4.7〜5.0％ 33.9%
4.4〜4.7％ 20.0%
3.5～3.8％ 2.6%
$55,319 Vol.
$55,319 Vol.
2027/01/19
2.6％未満
<1%
2.6～2.9％
1%
2.9～3.2％
2%
3.2～3.5％
1%
3.5～3.8％
3%
3.8〜4.1％
2%
4.1〜4.4％
2%
4.4〜4.7％
20%
4.7〜5.0％
34%
>5.0％
43%
>5.0％ 43.0%
4.7〜5.0％ 33.9%
4.4〜4.7％ 20.0%
3.5～3.8％ 2.6%
$55,319 Vol.
$55,319 Vol.
2027/01/19
2.6％未満
$1,381 Vol.
<1%
2.6～2.9％
$2,024 Vol.
1%
2.9～3.2％
$1,725 Vol.
2%
3.2～3.5％
$1,752 Vol.
1%
3.5～3.8％
$1,959 Vol.
3%
3.8〜4.1％
$3,604 Vol.
2%
4.1〜4.4％
$3,569 Vol.
2%
4.4〜4.7％
$20,136 Vol.
20%
4.7〜5.0％
$6,929 Vol.
34%
>5.0％
$12,242 Vol.
43%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Africa over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Y/Y, % change), as reported by Statistics South Africa.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874Recent moderation in South African CPI, falling to 4.3% year-over-year in July 2026 from a 5.0% June peak driven by transport costs, has tempered but not eliminated upside risks from Middle East oil shocks and El Niño-related food pressures. The South African Reserve Bank’s 7% policy rate and 3% inflation target anchor expectations, with analyst surveys holding 2026 headline forecasts at 4.4% despite weak Q2 GDP. Trader positioning on Polymarket, with >5.0% leading at 43.2% implied probability narrowly ahead of the 4.7-5.0% bucket, reflects ongoing uncertainty over whether persistent supply-side factors will keep the full-year average in the upper target band or allow convergence toward 4.4-4.7%. The September 23 MPC decision and August CPI release represent immediate swing factors that could shift the rate path priced into forward markets.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Africa over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Y/Y, % change), as reported by Statistics South Africa.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874
マーケット開始日： Jan 26, 2026, 5:50 PM ET
音量
$55,319終了日
2027/01/20マーケット開始日
Jan 26, 2026, 5:50 PM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Africa over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Y/Y, % change), as reported by Statistics South Africa.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874Recent moderation in South African CPI, falling to 4.3% year-over-year in July 2026 from a 5.0% June peak driven by transport costs, has tempered but not eliminated upside risks from Middle East oil shocks and El Niño-related food pressures. The South African Reserve Bank’s 7% policy rate and 3% inflation target anchor expectations, with analyst surveys holding 2026 headline forecasts at 4.4% despite weak Q2 GDP. Trader positioning on Polymarket, with >5.0% leading at 43.2% implied probability narrowly ahead of the 4.7-5.0% bucket, reflects ongoing uncertainty over whether persistent supply-side factors will keep the full-year average in the upper target band or allow convergence toward 4.4-4.7%. The September 23 MPC decision and August CPI release represent immediate swing factors that could shift the rate path priced into forward markets.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Africa over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Y/Y, % change), as reported by Statistics South Africa.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874
音量
$55,319終了日
2027/01/20マーケット開始日
Jan 26, 2026, 5:50 PM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...Recent moderation in South African CPI, falling to 4.3% year-over-year in July 2026 from a 5.0% June peak driven by transport costs, has tempered but not eliminated upside risks from Middle East oil shocks and El Niño-related food pressures. The South African Reserve Bank’s 7% policy rate and 3% inflation target anchor expectations, with analyst surveys holding 2026 headline forecasts at 4.4% despite weak Q2 GDP. Trader positioning on Polymarket, with >5.0% leading at 43.2% implied probability narrowly ahead of the 4.7-5.0% bucket, reflects ongoing uncertainty over whether persistent supply-side factors will keep the full-year average in the upper target band or allow convergence toward 4.4-4.7%. The September 23 MPC decision and August CPI release represent immediate swing factors that could shift the rate path priced into forward markets.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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