Polymarket traders price a razor-thin contest for March 2026 CPI year-over-year inflation, with ≥3.4% at 41% implied probability edging 3.3% at 38.1%, reflecting uncertainty over passthrough from February's surging producer prices (3.4% YoY, fastest in a year) and import prices (+1.3% MoM, largest since 2022). Cleveland Fed nowcasting pegs total CPI at 3.25% as of April 1, aligning with the cluster, while FOMC's March projections lifted 2026 inflation outlook amid geopolitical energy risks. February CPI held at 2.4% YoY, but wholesale pressures signal upside potential ahead of the April 10 release.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日3.4%以上 41.0%
3.3% 38.1%
3.2% 13%
3.1% 3.1%
$871,680 Vol.
$871,680 Vol.
2.6%以下
1%
2.7%
1%
2.8%
1%
2.9%
1%
3.0%
1%
3.1%
3%
3.2%
13%
3.3%
38%
3.4%以上
41%
3.4%以上 41.0%
3.3% 38.1%
3.2% 13%
3.1% 3.1%
$871,680 Vol.
$871,680 Vol.
2.6%以下
1%
2.7%
1%
2.8%
1%
2.9%
1%
3.0%
1%
3.1%
3%
3.2%
13%
3.3%
38%
3.4%以上
41%
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
マーケット開始日: Mar 11, 2026, 1:28 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders price a razor-thin contest for March 2026 CPI year-over-year inflation, with ≥3.4% at 41% implied probability edging 3.3% at 38.1%, reflecting uncertainty over passthrough from February's surging producer prices (3.4% YoY, fastest in a year) and import prices (+1.3% MoM, largest since 2022). Cleveland Fed nowcasting pegs total CPI at 3.25% as of April 1, aligning with the cluster, while FOMC's March projections lifted 2026 inflation outlook amid geopolitical energy risks. February CPI held at 2.4% YoY, but wholesale pressures signal upside potential ahead of the April 10 release.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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