Polymarket traders price Mexico's 2026 annual inflation most likely in the 4.00%-4.49% band at 33.5% implied probability, with 3.00%-3.49% and 3.50%-3.99% outcomes nearly tied at 26% each, highlighting a competitive split amid sticky price pressures. October CPI rose 4.66% year-over-year—above Banxico's 3% target (±1%)—driven by elevated food and energy costs, though core inflation eased to 3.80%, signaling potential disinflation. Banxico's October economist survey forecasts 3.38% for 2026, but market-implied odds incorporate fiscal expansion risks from nearshoring demand and peso volatility near 20 per dollar. November CPI data and Banxico's December policy meeting represent key catalysts that could tip consensus toward sub-4% convergence or prolonged elevation above target.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日3.00%〜3.49% 44.5%
4.00%〜4.49% 39%
3.50%〜3.99% 27%
4.50%~4.99% 19%
$26,116 Vol.
$26,116 Vol.
2.50%未満
11%
2.50%から2.99%
3%
3.00%〜3.49%
27%
3.50%〜3.99%
27%
4.00%〜4.49%
34%
4.50%~4.99%
17%
5.00%から5.49%
11%
5.50%以上
16%
3.00%〜3.49% 44.5%
4.00%〜4.49% 39%
3.50%〜3.99% 27%
4.50%~4.99% 19%
$26,116 Vol.
$26,116 Vol.
2.50%未満
11%
2.50%から2.99%
3%
3.00%〜3.49%
27%
3.50%〜3.99%
27%
4.00%〜4.49%
34%
4.50%~4.99%
17%
5.00%から5.49%
11%
5.50%以上
16%
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
マーケット開始日: Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price Mexico's 2026 annual inflation most likely in the 4.00%-4.49% band at 33.5% implied probability, with 3.00%-3.49% and 3.50%-3.99% outcomes nearly tied at 26% each, highlighting a competitive split amid sticky price pressures. October CPI rose 4.66% year-over-year—above Banxico's 3% target (±1%)—driven by elevated food and energy costs, though core inflation eased to 3.80%, signaling potential disinflation. Banxico's October economist survey forecasts 3.38% for 2026, but market-implied odds incorporate fiscal expansion risks from nearshoring demand and peso volatility near 20 per dollar. November CPI data and Banxico's December policy meeting represent key catalysts that could tip consensus toward sub-4% convergence or prolonged elevation above target.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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