Recent June CPI data, which printed a sharp -0.4% month-over-month decline—well below the -0.2% consensus—has shaped expectations for a modest rebound in July amid typical seasonal patterns and easing but still-elevated energy components. Bloomberg economist consensus currently centers near +0.14% MoM and 3.42% YoY, supporting the 62% market-implied probability on outcomes of +0.1% or higher as traders position ahead of the August 12 release. Persistent moderation in shelter costs and goods prices continues to anchor downside risks, while tariff pass-through and services stickiness introduce upside skew that keeps the 0.0% bucket at 33.5%. These odds reflect real-capital aggregation of incoming data, labor-market trends, and Fed communications rather than point forecasts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日0.1%以上 62%
0.0% 34%
-0.1% 5.4%
-0.2% <1%
$192,830 Vol.
$192,830 Vol.
≤-0.7%
<1%
-0.6%
<1%
-0.5%
<1%
-0.4%
<1%
-0.3%
<1%
-0.2%
1%
-0.1%
5%
0.0%
34%
0.1%以上
62%
0.1%以上 62%
0.0% 34%
-0.1% 5.4%
-0.2% <1%
$192,830 Vol.
$192,830 Vol.
≤-0.7%
<1%
-0.6%
<1%
-0.5%
<1%
-0.4%
<1%
-0.3%
<1%
-0.2%
1%
-0.1%
5%
0.0%
34%
0.1%以上
62%
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in July 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for July 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on August 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
マーケット開始日: Jul 14, 2026, 1:39 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in July 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for July 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on August 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent June CPI data, which printed a sharp -0.4% month-over-month decline—well below the -0.2% consensus—has shaped expectations for a modest rebound in July amid typical seasonal patterns and easing but still-elevated energy components. Bloomberg economist consensus currently centers near +0.14% MoM and 3.42% YoY, supporting the 62% market-implied probability on outcomes of +0.1% or higher as traders position ahead of the August 12 release. Persistent moderation in shelter costs and goods prices continues to anchor downside risks, while tariff pass-through and services stickiness introduce upside skew that keeps the 0.0% bucket at 33.5%. These odds reflect real-capital aggregation of incoming data, labor-market trends, and Fed communications rather than point forecasts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日

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