Recent June CPI data surprised to the downside at 3.5% year-over-year, below the 3.8% consensus, as energy prices fell sharply amid a US-Iran ceasefire and a 0.4% monthly decline—the largest since 2020. Cleveland Fed nowcasts point to further moderation around 3.32% for July, supporting trader focus on the 3.3-3.4% outcomes that together exceed 75% implied probability. Core measures eased to 2.6% but remain sticky, with shelter and services providing a floor while tariff pass-through and wage trends introduce upside risks ahead of the August 12 release. These developments have anchored market-implied odds near recent prints rather than earlier 2026 peaks.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日3.4% 44%
3.3% 32%
3.5% 17%
3.2% 6.8%
$394,104 Vol.
$394,104 Vol.
3.1%以下
3%
3.2%
7%
3.3%
32%
3.4%
44%
3.5%
17%
3.6%
1%
3.7%
<1%
3.8%
<1%
3.9%
<1%
4.0%
<1%
4.1%
<1%
4.2%以上
<1%
3.4% 44%
3.3% 32%
3.5% 17%
3.2% 6.8%
$394,104 Vol.
$394,104 Vol.
3.1%以下
3%
3.2%
7%
3.3%
32%
3.4%
44%
3.5%
17%
3.6%
1%
3.7%
<1%
3.8%
<1%
3.9%
<1%
4.0%
<1%
4.1%
<1%
4.2%以上
<1%
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for July 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on August 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
マーケット開始日: Jul 14, 2026, 1:35 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for July 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on August 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent June CPI data surprised to the downside at 3.5% year-over-year, below the 3.8% consensus, as energy prices fell sharply amid a US-Iran ceasefire and a 0.4% monthly decline—the largest since 2020. Cleveland Fed nowcasts point to further moderation around 3.32% for July, supporting trader focus on the 3.3-3.4% outcomes that together exceed 75% implied probability. Core measures eased to 2.6% but remain sticky, with shelter and services providing a floor while tariff pass-through and wage trends introduce upside risks ahead of the August 12 release. These developments have anchored market-implied odds near recent prints rather than earlier 2026 peaks.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日

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