Recent June 2026 core CPI data, which printed at 2.6% year-over-year against a 2.8% consensus, established the baseline for July expectations by showing faster-than-anticipated moderation in shelter and goods prices. Cleveland Fed nowcasts currently point to a modest 0.19–0.21% month-over-month rise, consistent with trader positioning that places roughly 80% implied probability on 2.4–2.5% outcomes for the year-over-year figure. The Federal Reserve’s 3.50–3.75% funds-rate range and subdued energy costs have reinforced views of contained underlying pressures, while the August 12 BLS release remains the immediate catalyst that could shift odds if services inflation or base effects deviate from recent trends.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日2.5% 50%
2.4% 30%
2.6% 11.1%
2.7% 8.6%
$59,486 Vol.
$59,486 Vol.
2.2%以下
4%
2.3%
4%
2.4%
30%
2.5%
50%
2.6%
11%
2.7%
9%
2.8%
3%
2.9%
3%
3.0%
1%
3.1%以上
3%
2.5% 50%
2.4% 30%
2.6% 11.1%
2.7% 8.6%
$59,486 Vol.
$59,486 Vol.
2.2%以下
4%
2.3%
4%
2.4%
30%
2.5%
50%
2.6%
11%
2.7%
9%
2.8%
3%
2.9%
3%
3.0%
1%
3.1%以上
3%
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for July 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on August 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
マーケット開始日: Jul 14, 2026, 1:43 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for July 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on August 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent June 2026 core CPI data, which printed at 2.6% year-over-year against a 2.8% consensus, established the baseline for July expectations by showing faster-than-anticipated moderation in shelter and goods prices. Cleveland Fed nowcasts currently point to a modest 0.19–0.21% month-over-month rise, consistent with trader positioning that places roughly 80% implied probability on 2.4–2.5% outcomes for the year-over-year figure. The Federal Reserve’s 3.50–3.75% funds-rate range and subdued energy costs have reinforced views of contained underlying pressures, while the August 12 BLS release remains the immediate catalyst that could shift odds if services inflation or base effects deviate from recent trends.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日


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