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エコノミー·経済政策

2026年末までに米国の景気後退は？

Market icon
エコノミー·経済政策

2026年末までに米国の景気後退は？

はい

36% chance
Polymarket

$904,180 Vol.

はい

36% chance
Polymarket

$904,180 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met: 1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). 2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then. The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-productTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a 64% implied probability against a US recession by end-2026, driven by the Federal Reserve's March 18 projections showing moderately higher GDP growth, stable unemployment at 4.4% in Q4 2026, and inflation expectations ticking up modestly but remaining contained. The New York Fed's DSGE model echoes this at 35.8% recession odds, while its Q1 nowcast holds at 2.1% GDP expansion despite softening Conference Board LEI signals. Recent oil price surges from geopolitical tensions prompted Goldman Sachs to raise its 12-month risk to 30%, yet traders bet on resilient labor markets and policy accommodation to avert contraction. Key catalysts ahead include April Q1 GDP release and May FOMC meeting.

Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 64% implied probability against a US recession by end-2026, driven by the Federal Reserve's March 18 projections showing moderately higher GDP growth, stable unemployment at 4.4% in Q4 2026, and inflation expectations ticking up modestly but remaining contained. The New York Fed's DSGE model echoes this at 35.8% recession odds, while its Q1 nowcast holds at 2.1% GDP expansion despite softening Conference Board LEI signals. Recent oil price surges from geopolitical tensions prompted Goldman Sachs to raise its 12-month risk to 30%, yet traders bet on resilient labor markets and policy accommodation to avert contraction. Key catalysts ahead include April Q1 GDP release and May FOMC meeting.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met: 1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). 2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then. The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-productTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a 64% implied probability against a US recession by end-2026, driven by the Federal Reserve's March 18 projections showing moderately higher GDP growth, stable unemployment at 4.4% in Q4 2026, and inflation expectations ticking up modestly but remaining contained. The New York Fed's DSGE model echoes this at 35.8% recession odds, while its Q1 nowcast holds at 2.1% GDP expansion despite softening Conference Board LEI signals. Recent oil price surges from geopolitical tensions prompted Goldman Sachs to raise its 12-month risk to 30%, yet traders bet on resilient labor markets and policy accommodation to avert contraction. Key catalysts ahead include April Q1 GDP release and May FOMC meeting.

Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 64% implied probability against a US recession by end-2026, driven by the Federal Reserve's March 18 projections showing moderately higher GDP growth, stable unemployment at 4.4% in Q4 2026, and inflation expectations ticking up modestly but remaining contained. The New York Fed's DSGE model echoes this at 35.8% recession odds, while its Q1 nowcast holds at 2.1% GDP expansion despite softening Conference Board LEI signals. Recent oil price surges from geopolitical tensions prompted Goldman Sachs to raise its 12-month risk to 30%, yet traders bet on resilient labor markets and policy accommodation to avert contraction. Key catalysts ahead include April Q1 GDP release and May FOMC meeting.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

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よくある質問

「2026年末までに米国の景気後退は？」はPolymarket上の2個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「2026年末までに米国の景気後退はあるか？」で36%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、36¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に36%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「2026年末までに米国の景気後退は？」は$904.2Kの総取引量を生み出しています（Sep 29, 2025のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「2026年末までに米国の景気後退は？」で取引するには、このページに記載されている2個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「2026年末までに米国の景気後退は？」の現在のフロントランナーは「2026年末までに米国の景気後退はあるか？」で36%であり、市場がこの結果に36%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

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