Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have driven sharp energy price increases, pushing April euro-area headline inflation to 3% and lifting 2026 projections toward 2.6% or higher, which has anchored the 87% market-implied probability of a 25-basis-point ECB deposit facility rate hike to 2.25% at the June 11 meeting. After holding rates steady at 2.00% on April 30, Governing Council members explicitly discussed tightening to contain second-round effects, shifting consensus from prior easing expectations. Residual 12.4% odds of no change reflect uncertainty around growth impacts and potential de-escalation. Incoming inflation data and energy trajectories through early June remain the key swing factors for resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日25ベーシスポイントの利上げ 87%
No change 12.4%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利上げ <1%
25 bps decrease <1%
$356,293 Vol.
$356,293 Vol.
2026/06/11
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
12%
25ベーシスポイントの利上げ
87%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利上げ
1%
25ベーシスポイントの利上げ 87%
No change 12.4%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利上げ <1%
25 bps decrease <1%
$356,293 Vol.
$356,293 Vol.
2026/06/11
50+ bps decrease
$60,661 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$65,996 Vol.
<1%
No change
$75,912 Vol.
12%
25ベーシスポイントの利上げ
$87,819 Vol.
87%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利上げ
$65,930 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have driven sharp energy price increases, pushing April euro-area headline inflation to 3% and lifting 2026 projections toward 2.6% or higher, which has anchored the 87% market-implied probability of a 25-basis-point ECB deposit facility rate hike to 2.25% at the June 11 meeting. After holding rates steady at 2.00% on April 30, Governing Council members explicitly discussed tightening to contain second-round effects, shifting consensus from prior easing expectations. Residual 12.4% odds of no change reflect uncertainty around growth impacts and potential de-escalation. Incoming inflation data and energy trajectories through early June remain the key swing factors for resolution.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
マーケット開始日： Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
音量
$356,293終了日
2026/06/11マーケット開始日
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have driven sharp energy price increases, pushing April euro-area headline inflation to 3% and lifting 2026 projections toward 2.6% or higher, which has anchored the 87% market-implied probability of a 25-basis-point ECB deposit facility rate hike to 2.25% at the June 11 meeting. After holding rates steady at 2.00% on April 30, Governing Council members explicitly discussed tightening to contain second-round effects, shifting consensus from prior easing expectations. Residual 12.4% odds of no change reflect uncertainty around growth impacts and potential de-escalation. Incoming inflation data and energy trajectories through early June remain the key swing factors for resolution.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
音量
$356,293終了日
2026/06/11マーケット開始日
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have driven sharp energy price increases, pushing April euro-area headline inflation to 3% and lifting 2026 projections toward 2.6% or higher, which has anchored the 87% market-implied probability of a 25-basis-point ECB deposit facility rate hike to 2.25% at the June 11 meeting. After holding rates steady at 2.00% on April 30, Governing Council members explicitly discussed tightening to contain second-round effects, shifting consensus from prior easing expectations. Residual 12.4% odds of no change reflect uncertainty around growth impacts and potential de-escalation. Incoming inflation data and energy trajectories through early June remain the key swing factors for resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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