Elevated euro-area inflation, which reached 3.0% in April 2026 amid Middle East energy price shocks, has anchored trader consensus around a 25 basis point ECB deposit facility rate hike at the June 11 meeting from the current 2.00% level. Recent Governing Council communications and April meeting minutes underscore upside risks to price stability and the need for policy tightening to prevent second-round effects, aligning with market-implied rate paths that price additional hikes later in 2026. This positioning reflects real-capital bets on persistent inflationary pressures outweighing growth concerns. A swift resolution to the regional conflict that eases energy costs, or incoming data showing faster disinflation and sharper economic contraction, could still alter the outlook ahead of the decision.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日25ベーシスポイントの利上げ 95%
No change 4.7%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利上げ <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$491,508 Vol.
$491,508 Vol.
2026/06/11
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
5%
25ベーシスポイントの利上げ
95%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利上げ
<1%
25ベーシスポイントの利上げ 95%
No change 4.7%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利上げ <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$491,508 Vol.
$491,508 Vol.
2026/06/11
50+ bps decrease
$98,708 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$100,389 Vol.
<1%
No change
$98,393 Vol.
5%
25ベーシスポイントの利上げ
$113,582 Vol.
95%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利上げ
$80,546 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Elevated euro-area inflation, which reached 3.0% in April 2026 amid Middle East energy price shocks, has anchored trader consensus around a 25 basis point ECB deposit facility rate hike at the June 11 meeting from the current 2.00% level. Recent Governing Council communications and April meeting minutes underscore upside risks to price stability and the need for policy tightening to prevent second-round effects, aligning with market-implied rate paths that price additional hikes later in 2026. This positioning reflects real-capital bets on persistent inflationary pressures outweighing growth concerns. A swift resolution to the regional conflict that eases energy costs, or incoming data showing faster disinflation and sharper economic contraction, could still alter the outlook ahead of the decision.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
マーケット開始日： Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
音量
$491,508終了日
2026/06/11マーケット開始日
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Elevated euro-area inflation, which reached 3.0% in April 2026 amid Middle East energy price shocks, has anchored trader consensus around a 25 basis point ECB deposit facility rate hike at the June 11 meeting from the current 2.00% level. Recent Governing Council communications and April meeting minutes underscore upside risks to price stability and the need for policy tightening to prevent second-round effects, aligning with market-implied rate paths that price additional hikes later in 2026. This positioning reflects real-capital bets on persistent inflationary pressures outweighing growth concerns. A swift resolution to the regional conflict that eases energy costs, or incoming data showing faster disinflation and sharper economic contraction, could still alter the outlook ahead of the decision.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
音量
$491,508終了日
2026/06/11マーケット開始日
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated euro-area inflation, which reached 3.0% in April 2026 amid Middle East energy price shocks, has anchored trader consensus around a 25 basis point ECB deposit facility rate hike at the June 11 meeting from the current 2.00% level. Recent Governing Council communications and April meeting minutes underscore upside risks to price stability and the need for policy tightening to prevent second-round effects, aligning with market-implied rate paths that price additional hikes later in 2026. This positioning reflects real-capital bets on persistent inflationary pressures outweighing growth concerns. A swift resolution to the regional conflict that eases energy costs, or incoming data showing faster disinflation and sharper economic contraction, could still alter the outlook ahead of the decision.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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