Polymarket traders are pricing a 62.5% implied probability of a Bank of Russia key rate cut at the June 7 meeting, driven primarily by moderating inflation pressures amid an overheating war-fueled economy. Annual CPI eased to 8.3% in May from 8.8% prior, with monthly gains slowing to 0.4%, signaling potential peak rate pressures despite 16% benchmark levels holding since December. Robust 5.4% Q1 GDP growth supports no-change odds at 28%, but ruble volatility and fiscal stimulus raise hike risks to just 16%. Traders eye Nabiullina's data-dependent stance, with resolution hinging on sustained CPI deceleration toward the 4% target.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Decrease 63%
No Change 28%
Increase 16%
NEW
NEW
Jun 19, 2026
Decrease
63%
No Change
28%
Increase
16%
Decrease 63%
No Change 28%
Increase 16%
NEW
NEW
Jun 19, 2026
Decrease
$8 Vol.
63%
No Change
$10 Vol.
28%
Increase
$314 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve according to the change in the key rate resulting from the Bank of Russia’s June meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its June 19, 2026 meeting as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Russia’s press release for their June 19, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the key rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.This market will resolve according to the change in the key rate resulting from the Bank of Russia’s June meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its June 19, 2026 meeting as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Russia’s press release for their June 19, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the key rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.This market will resolve according to the change in the key rate resulting from the Bank of Russia’s June meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its June 19, 2026 meeting as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Russia’s press release for their June 19, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the key rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve according to the change in the key rate resulting from the Bank of Russia’s June meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its June 19, 2026 meeting as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Russia’s press release for their June 19, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the key rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.This market will resolve according to the change in the key rate resulting from the Bank of Russia’s June meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its June 19, 2026 meeting as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Russia’s press release for their June 19, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the key rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its June 19, 2026 meeting as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Russia’s press release for their June 19, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the key rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
マーケット開始日： Mar 19, 2026, 8:04 PM ET
音量
$332終了日
Jun 19, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 19, 2026, 8:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in the key rate resulting from the Bank of Russia’s June meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its June 19, 2026 meeting as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Russia’s press release for their June 19, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the key rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.This market will resolve according to the change in the key rate resulting from the Bank of Russia’s June meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its June 19, 2026 meeting as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Russia’s press release for their June 19, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the key rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.This market will resolve according to the change in the key rate resulting from the Bank of Russia’s June meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its June 19, 2026 meeting as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Russia’s press release for their June 19, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the key rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
音量
$332終了日
Jun 19, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 19, 2026, 8:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders are pricing a 62.5% implied probability of a Bank of Russia key rate cut at the June 7 meeting, driven primarily by moderating inflation pressures amid an overheating war-fueled economy. Annual CPI eased to 8.3% in May from 8.8% prior, with monthly gains slowing to 0.4%, signaling potential peak rate pressures despite 16% benchmark levels holding since December. Robust 5.4% Q1 GDP growth supports no-change odds at 28%, but ruble volatility and fiscal stimulus raise hike risks to just 16%. Traders eye Nabiullina's data-dependent stance, with resolution hinging on sustained CPI deceleration toward the 4% target.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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