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地政学·トランプ

予定されているウクライナ和平国民投票は... ？

Market icon
地政学·トランプ

予定されているウクライナ和平国民投票は... ？

$222,181 Vol.

Jan 31, 2026
Polymarket

$222,181 Vol.

Polymarket

3月31日

$18,859 Vol.

2%

6月30日

$57,992 Vol.

10%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a peace referendum on the Russo-Ukrainian war is officially scheduled in Ukraine by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A peace referendum for the Russo-Ukrainian war refers to any nationwide vote relating to peace in the Russo-Ukrainian war or over a peace deal to end the war. A qualifying referendum will be considered to be scheduled once a date for the referendum to take place has been officially scheduled and publicly announced by a relevant Ukrainian government authority with the legal jurisdiction to do so. Once a qualifying referendum has been scheduled, this market will resolve to “Yes.” Subsequent legal challenges or other challenges to the legitimacy of the referendum will not affect resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if a peace referendum on the Russo-Ukrainian war is officially scheduled in Ukraine by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A peace referendum for the Russo-Ukrainian war refers to any nationwide vote relating to peace in the Russo-Ukrainian war or over a peace deal to end the war. A qualifying referendum will be considered to be scheduled once a date for the referendum to take place has been officially scheduled and publicly announced by a relevant Ukrainian government authority with the legal jurisdiction to do so. Once a qualifying referendum has been scheduled, this market will resolve to “Yes.” Subsequent legal challenges or other challenges to the legitimacy of the referendum will not affect resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if a peace referendum on the Russo-Ukrainian war is officially scheduled in Ukraine by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A peace referendum for the Russo-Ukrainian war refers to any nationwide vote relating to peace in the Russo-Ukrainian war or over a peace deal to end the war. A qualifying referendum will be considered to be scheduled once a date for the referendum to take place has been officially scheduled and publicly announced by a relevant Ukrainian government authority with the legal jurisdiction to do so. Once a qualifying referendum has been scheduled, this market will resolve to “Yes.” Subsequent legal challenges or other challenges to the legitimacy of the referendum will not affect resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Amid US pressure for a Ukraine-Russia peace deal, President Zelenskyy has backed proposals requiring a national referendum on any territorial concessions, potentially tied to presidential elections by May 15 to secure American security guarantees. However, Ukraine's election commission insists on a prior ceasefire and six months of preparation under martial law, rendering scheduling infeasible without de-escalation. Recent KIIS polling indicates 61% public support for such a vote if linked to EU membership in 2027, reconstruction, and guarantees, yet February direct talks yielded no breakthrough. Traders weigh stalled diplomacy, ongoing frontline fighting, and constitutional hurdles against near-term resolution.

Amid US pressure for a Ukraine-Russia peace deal, President Zelenskyy has backed proposals requiring a national referendum on any territorial concessions, potentially tied to presidential elections by May 15 to secure American security guarantees. However, Ukraine's election commission insists on a prior ceasefire and six months of preparation under martial law, rendering scheduling infeasible without de-escalation. Recent KIIS polling indicates 61% public support for such a vote if linked to EU membership in 2027, reconstruction, and guarantees, yet February direct talks yielded no breakthrough. Traders weigh stalled diplomacy, ongoing frontline fighting, and constitutional hurdles against near-term resolution.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a peace referendum on the Russo-Ukrainian war is officially scheduled in Ukraine by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A peace referendum for the Russo-Ukrainian war refers to any nationwide vote relating to peace in the Russo-Ukrainian war or over a peace deal to end the war. A qualifying referendum will be considered to be scheduled once a date for the referendum to take place has been officially scheduled and publicly announced by a relevant Ukrainian government authority with the legal jurisdiction to do so. Once a qualifying referendum has been scheduled, this market will resolve to “Yes.” Subsequent legal challenges or other challenges to the legitimacy of the referendum will not affect resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if a peace referendum on the Russo-Ukrainian war is officially scheduled in Ukraine by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A peace referendum for the Russo-Ukrainian war refers to any nationwide vote relating to peace in the Russo-Ukrainian war or over a peace deal to end the war. A qualifying referendum will be considered to be scheduled once a date for the referendum to take place has been officially scheduled and publicly announced by a relevant Ukrainian government authority with the legal jurisdiction to do so. Once a qualifying referendum has been scheduled, this market will resolve to “Yes.” Subsequent legal challenges or other challenges to the legitimacy of the referendum will not affect resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if a peace referendum on the Russo-Ukrainian war is officially scheduled in Ukraine by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A peace referendum for the Russo-Ukrainian war refers to any nationwide vote relating to peace in the Russo-Ukrainian war or over a peace deal to end the war. A qualifying referendum will be considered to be scheduled once a date for the referendum to take place has been officially scheduled and publicly announced by a relevant Ukrainian government authority with the legal jurisdiction to do so. Once a qualifying referendum has been scheduled, this market will resolve to “Yes.” Subsequent legal challenges or other challenges to the legitimacy of the referendum will not affect resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Amid US pressure for a Ukraine-Russia peace deal, President Zelenskyy has backed proposals requiring a national referendum on any territorial concessions, potentially tied to presidential elections by May 15 to secure American security guarantees. However, Ukraine's election commission insists on a prior ceasefire and six months of preparation under martial law, rendering scheduling infeasible without de-escalation. Recent KIIS polling indicates 61% public support for such a vote if linked to EU membership in 2027, reconstruction, and guarantees, yet February direct talks yielded no breakthrough. Traders weigh stalled diplomacy, ongoing frontline fighting, and constitutional hurdles against near-term resolution.

Amid US pressure for a Ukraine-Russia peace deal, President Zelenskyy has backed proposals requiring a national referendum on any territorial concessions, potentially tied to presidential elections by May 15 to secure American security guarantees. However, Ukraine's election commission insists on a prior ceasefire and six months of preparation under martial law, rendering scheduling infeasible without de-escalation. Recent KIIS polling indicates 61% public support for such a vote if linked to EU membership in 2027, reconstruction, and guarantees, yet February direct talks yielded no breakthrough. Traders weigh stalled diplomacy, ongoing frontline fighting, and constitutional hurdles against near-term resolution.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

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よくある質問

「予定されているウクライナ和平国民投票は... ？」はPolymarket上の3個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「6月30日」で10%、次いで「3月31日」が2%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、10¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に10%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「予定されているウクライナ和平国民投票は... ？」は$222.2Kの総取引量を生み出しています（Dec 26, 2025のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「予定されているウクライナ和平国民投票は... ？」で取引するには、このページに記載されている3個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「予定されているウクライナ和平国民投票は... ？」の現在のフロントランナーは「6月30日」で10%であり、市場がこの結果に10%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「3月31日」で2%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「予定されているウクライナ和平国民投票は... ？」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。