Peace talks between Ukraine, Russia, and US mediators have stalled since mid-March amid Russia's spring offensive and distractions like the Iran conflict, diminishing prospects for a deal by the US-imposed June deadline. Although President Zelenskyy floated dropping NATO membership ambitions in December 2025 for security guarantees, no public agreement has emerged, with recent Zelenskyy remarks tying security to NATO or nuclear options. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte's March 26 statements positioned Ukraine within the alliance's defense ecosystem without formal membership commitments. Traders' 88% "No" consensus reflects these diplomatic impasses and lack of verifiable progress on neutrality pledges.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
$14,699 Vol.
$14,699 Vol.
2026/06/30
はい
$14,699 Vol.
$14,699 Vol.
2026/06/30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.Peace talks between Ukraine, Russia, and US mediators have stalled since mid-March amid Russia's spring offensive and distractions like the Iran conflict, diminishing prospects for a deal by the US-imposed June deadline. Although President Zelenskyy floated dropping NATO membership ambitions in December 2025 for security guarantees, no public agreement has emerged, with recent Zelenskyy remarks tying security to NATO or nuclear options. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte's March 26 statements positioned Ukraine within the alliance's defense ecosystem without formal membership commitments. Traders' 88% "No" consensus reflects these diplomatic impasses and lack of verifiable progress on neutrality pledges.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
マーケット開始日： Dec 17, 2025, 5:46 PM ET
音量
$14,699終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Dec 17, 2025, 5:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.Peace talks between Ukraine, Russia, and US mediators have stalled since mid-March amid Russia's spring offensive and distractions like the Iran conflict, diminishing prospects for a deal by the US-imposed June deadline. Although President Zelenskyy floated dropping NATO membership ambitions in December 2025 for security guarantees, no public agreement has emerged, with recent Zelenskyy remarks tying security to NATO or nuclear options. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte's March 26 statements positioned Ukraine within the alliance's defense ecosystem without formal membership commitments. Traders' 88% "No" consensus reflects these diplomatic impasses and lack of verifiable progress on neutrality pledges.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
音量
$14,699終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Dec 17, 2025, 5:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Peace talks between Ukraine, Russia, and US mediators have stalled since mid-March amid Russia's spring offensive and distractions like the Iran conflict, diminishing prospects for a deal by the US-imposed June deadline. Although President Zelenskyy floated dropping NATO membership ambitions in December 2025 for security guarantees, no public agreement has emerged, with recent Zelenskyy remarks tying security to NATO or nuclear options. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte's March 26 statements positioned Ukraine within the alliance's defense ecosystem without formal membership commitments. Traders' 88% "No" consensus reflects these diplomatic impasses and lack of verifiable progress on neutrality pledges.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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