Ukrainian forces maintain control over much of Prymorske in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, with ISW assessments showing Russian elements limited to infiltration attempts via the Kakhovka Reservoir bed and southern fringes as of late September 2026. Ukrainian counteractions have reversed earlier Russian positions, restoring northern and central sections while pressuring logistics along the Konka River corridor. Russian operations in the sector rely on units from the 58th Combined Arms Army that appear stretched amid Moscow’s priority focus on Donetsk advances. Broader Ukrainian battlefield momentum, including gains from Operation Vivaldi in Donetsk, has reinforced defensive postures in Zaporizhzhia and kept implied probabilities for full Russian capture low across 2026 resolution windows. Scheduled winter strike campaigns and any shifts in frontline resources remain the main variables that could alter the contested status before deadlines.