Traders' 96.2% consensus on "No" stems from Russia's ironclad control of Crimea since its 2014 annexation, bolstered by massive fortifications, tunnel networks, and relocated Black Sea Fleet assets amid Ukraine's long-range strikes. In the past month, Ukrainian drone attacks damaged Sevastopol infrastructure and airfields, but inflicted no territorial changes, while Russian forces reversed Kyiv's Kursk incursion and advanced in Donbas, highlighting Ukraine's manpower shortages and frontline stalemate. Through mid-2026, an amphibious recapture faces huge logistical barriers without direct NATO intervention. Potential shifters include sudden Russian collapse, unrestricted Western long-range weapons, or ceasefire concessions returning territory, though traders deem these improbable.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
$51,659 Vol.
$51,659 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
はい
$51,659 Vol.
$51,659 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Traders' 96.2% consensus on "No" stems from Russia's ironclad control of Crimea since its 2014 annexation, bolstered by massive fortifications, tunnel networks, and relocated Black Sea Fleet assets amid Ukraine's long-range strikes. In the past month, Ukrainian drone attacks damaged Sevastopol infrastructure and airfields, but inflicted no territorial changes, while Russian forces reversed Kyiv's Kursk incursion and advanced in Donbas, highlighting Ukraine's manpower shortages and frontline stalemate. Through mid-2026, an amphibious recapture faces huge logistical barriers without direct NATO intervention. Potential shifters include sudden Russian collapse, unrestricted Western long-range weapons, or ceasefire concessions returning territory, though traders deem these improbable.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Sep 23, 2025, 7:10 PM ET
音量
$51,659終了日
Jun 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Sep 23, 2025, 7:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Traders' 96.2% consensus on "No" stems from Russia's ironclad control of Crimea since its 2014 annexation, bolstered by massive fortifications, tunnel networks, and relocated Black Sea Fleet assets amid Ukraine's long-range strikes. In the past month, Ukrainian drone attacks damaged Sevastopol infrastructure and airfields, but inflicted no territorial changes, while Russian forces reversed Kyiv's Kursk incursion and advanced in Donbas, highlighting Ukraine's manpower shortages and frontline stalemate. Through mid-2026, an amphibious recapture faces huge logistical barriers without direct NATO intervention. Potential shifters include sudden Russian collapse, unrestricted Western long-range weapons, or ceasefire concessions returning territory, though traders deem these improbable.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
音量
$51,659終了日
Jun 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Sep 23, 2025, 7:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders' 96.2% consensus on "No" stems from Russia's ironclad control of Crimea since its 2014 annexation, bolstered by massive fortifications, tunnel networks, and relocated Black Sea Fleet assets amid Ukraine's long-range strikes. In the past month, Ukrainian drone attacks damaged Sevastopol infrastructure and airfields, but inflicted no territorial changes, while Russian forces reversed Kyiv's Kursk incursion and advanced in Donbas, highlighting Ukraine's manpower shortages and frontline stalemate. Through mid-2026, an amphibious recapture faces huge logistical barriers without direct NATO intervention. Potential shifters include sudden Russian collapse, unrestricted Western long-range weapons, or ceasefire concessions returning territory, though traders deem these improbable.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問