Russian forces have conducted persistent offensive operations along the Pokrovsk axis in Donetsk Oblast but registered no confirmed advances in late March 2026, according to ISW assessments through March 28, maintaining Ukrainian control over Krasnoiarske per current maps. Nearby, marginal Russian gains occurred around Grishino and Kotlino amid active combat, yet Ukrainian defenses have repelled major breakthroughs despite attrition warfare. Trader consensus prices a slim 4% implied probability for Russian entry into Krasnoiarske (48.419117° N, 37.125165° E) by March 31, reflecting stalled momentum, fortified Ukrainian lines, and logistical strains on attackers. Escalation risks persist with potential spring pushes or aid shifts, though historical advance rates suggest significant barriers remain.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日新規
2026/03/31
3月31日
3%
4月30日
31%
$3,623 Vol.
3月31日
$3,623 Vol.
3%
4月30日
$0 Vol.
31%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Krasnoiarske, Donetsk Oblast, (48.419117° N, 37.125165° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces have conducted persistent offensive operations along the Pokrovsk axis in Donetsk Oblast but registered no confirmed advances in late March 2026, according to ISW assessments through March 28, maintaining Ukrainian control over Krasnoiarske per current maps. Nearby, marginal Russian gains occurred around Grishino and Kotlino amid active combat, yet Ukrainian defenses have repelled major breakthroughs despite attrition warfare. Trader consensus prices a slim 4% implied probability for Russian entry into Krasnoiarske (48.419117° N, 37.125165° E) by March 31, reflecting stalled momentum, fortified Ukrainian lines, and logistical strains on attackers. Escalation risks persist with potential spring pushes or aid shifts, though historical advance rates suggest significant barriers remain.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Krasnoiarske, Donetsk Oblast, (48.419117° N, 37.125165° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Mar 9, 2026, 11:13 PM ET
音量
$3,623終了日
2026/04/30マーケット開始日
Mar 9, 2026, 11:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Krasnoiarske, Donetsk Oblast, (48.419117° N, 37.125165° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces have conducted persistent offensive operations along the Pokrovsk axis in Donetsk Oblast but registered no confirmed advances in late March 2026, according to ISW assessments through March 28, maintaining Ukrainian control over Krasnoiarske per current maps. Nearby, marginal Russian gains occurred around Grishino and Kotlino amid active combat, yet Ukrainian defenses have repelled major breakthroughs despite attrition warfare. Trader consensus prices a slim 4% implied probability for Russian entry into Krasnoiarske (48.419117° N, 37.125165° E) by March 31, reflecting stalled momentum, fortified Ukrainian lines, and logistical strains on attackers. Escalation risks persist with potential spring pushes or aid shifts, though historical advance rates suggest significant barriers remain.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Krasnoiarske, Donetsk Oblast, (48.419117° N, 37.125165° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
音量
$3,623終了日
2026/04/30マーケット開始日
Mar 9, 2026, 11:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russian forces have conducted persistent offensive operations along the Pokrovsk axis in Donetsk Oblast but registered no confirmed advances in late March 2026, according to ISW assessments through March 28, maintaining Ukrainian control over Krasnoiarske per current maps. Nearby, marginal Russian gains occurred around Grishino and Kotlino amid active combat, yet Ukrainian defenses have repelled major breakthroughs despite attrition warfare. Trader consensus prices a slim 4% implied probability for Russian entry into Krasnoiarske (48.419117° N, 37.125165° E) by March 31, reflecting stalled momentum, fortified Ukrainian lines, and logistical strains on attackers. Escalation risks persist with potential spring pushes or aid shifts, though historical advance rates suggest significant barriers remain.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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