With the March 31, 2026 deadline expired, traders price "No" at 100% as Ukraine issued no public agreement renouncing NATO membership, despite earlier signals from President Zelenskyy in December 2025 offering to forgo it for security guarantees. Stalled US-mediated peace talks—paused amid Russia's spring offensive and distractions like the Iran conflict—failed to produce any deal, while NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte reiterated alliance support for Ukraine's Euro-Atlantic integration without setting membership as an immediate priority. This skin-in-the-game consensus reflects the absence of diplomatic breakthroughs, with slim odds of post-deadline reversal barring unforeseen late announcements or reinterpretations of commitments.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
$104,038 Vol.
$104,038 Vol.
2026/03/31
はい
$104,038 Vol.
$104,038 Vol.
2026/03/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.With the March 31, 2026 deadline expired, traders price "No" at 100% as Ukraine issued no public agreement renouncing NATO membership, despite earlier signals from President Zelenskyy in December 2025 offering to forgo it for security guarantees. Stalled US-mediated peace talks—paused amid Russia's spring offensive and distractions like the Iran conflict—failed to produce any deal, while NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte reiterated alliance support for Ukraine's Euro-Atlantic integration without setting membership as an immediate priority. This skin-in-the-game consensus reflects the absence of diplomatic breakthroughs, with slim odds of post-deadline reversal barring unforeseen late announcements or reinterpretations of commitments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
マーケット開始日： Dec 17, 2025, 5:41 PM ET
音量
$104,038終了日
2026/03/31マーケット開始日
Dec 17, 2025, 5:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てウィンドウ
最終
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.With the March 31, 2026 deadline expired, traders price "No" at 100% as Ukraine issued no public agreement renouncing NATO membership, despite earlier signals from President Zelenskyy in December 2025 offering to forgo it for security guarantees. Stalled US-mediated peace talks—paused amid Russia's spring offensive and distractions like the Iran conflict—failed to produce any deal, while NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte reiterated alliance support for Ukraine's Euro-Atlantic integration without setting membership as an immediate priority. This skin-in-the-game consensus reflects the absence of diplomatic breakthroughs, with slim odds of post-deadline reversal barring unforeseen late announcements or reinterpretations of commitments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
音量
$104,038終了日
2026/03/31マーケット開始日
Dec 17, 2025, 5:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てウィンドウ
最終
With the March 31, 2026 deadline expired, traders price "No" at 100% as Ukraine issued no public agreement renouncing NATO membership, despite earlier signals from President Zelenskyy in December 2025 offering to forgo it for security guarantees. Stalled US-mediated peace talks—paused amid Russia's spring offensive and distractions like the Iran conflict—failed to produce any deal, while NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte reiterated alliance support for Ukraine's Euro-Atlantic integration without setting membership as an immediate priority. This skin-in-the-game consensus reflects the absence of diplomatic breakthroughs, with slim odds of post-deadline reversal barring unforeseen late announcements or reinterpretations of commitments.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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