Russia's potential nuclear test hinges on escalating rhetoric and preparations amid the Ukraine war, with no full-scale detonation since 1990. President Putin revoked ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) in November 2023, removing legal barriers, while recent U.S. intelligence from October 2024 detected unusual activity at the Novaya Zemlya test site, including missile transports and construction, fueling speculation of subcritical or full tests. Diplomatic tensions persist, with NATO warnings of escalation risks and Russia's suspension of New START inspections. Trader consensus reflects restraint signals from Moscow alongside proxy war dynamics; upcoming Ukraine ceasefire talks or battlefield shifts could sway odds before any resolution deadline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$1,301,609 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
2026年3月31日
<1%
$1,301,609 Vol.
2026年3月31日
$1,191,123 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Russia's potential nuclear test hinges on escalating rhetoric and preparations amid the Ukraine war, with no full-scale detonation since 1990. President Putin revoked ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) in November 2023, removing legal barriers, while recent U.S. intelligence from October 2024 detected unusual activity at the Novaya Zemlya test site, including missile transports and construction, fueling speculation of subcritical or full tests. Diplomatic tensions persist, with NATO warnings of escalation risks and Russia's suspension of New START inspections. Trader consensus reflects restraint signals from Moscow alongside proxy war dynamics; upcoming Ukraine ceasefire talks or battlefield shifts could sway odds before any resolution deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Nov 5, 2025, 1:13 PM ET
音量
$1,301,609終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Russia's potential nuclear test hinges on escalating rhetoric and preparations amid the Ukraine war, with no full-scale detonation since 1990. President Putin revoked ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) in November 2023, removing legal barriers, while recent U.S. intelligence from October 2024 detected unusual activity at the Novaya Zemlya test site, including missile transports and construction, fueling speculation of subcritical or full tests. Diplomatic tensions persist, with NATO warnings of escalation risks and Russia's suspension of New START inspections. Trader consensus reflects restraint signals from Moscow alongside proxy war dynamics; upcoming Ukraine ceasefire talks or battlefield shifts could sway odds before any resolution deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$1,301,609終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russia's potential nuclear test hinges on escalating rhetoric and preparations amid the Ukraine war, with no full-scale detonation since 1990. President Putin revoked ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) in November 2023, removing legal barriers, while recent U.S. intelligence from October 2024 detected unusual activity at the Novaya Zemlya test site, including missile transports and construction, fueling speculation of subcritical or full tests. Diplomatic tensions persist, with NATO warnings of escalation risks and Russia's suspension of New START inspections. Trader consensus reflects restraint signals from Moscow alongside proxy war dynamics; upcoming Ukraine ceasefire talks or battlefield shifts could sway odds before any resolution deadline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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