Russia’s nuclear testing posture remains tied to U.S. actions, with Moscow repeatedly stating it will resume explosive tests only if Washington does so first. In late 2025, President Putin directed officials to prepare proposals after U.S. signals on resuming testing, and Russian ministers have since confirmed work on readiness at the Novaya Zemlya site. As of early October 2026, senior diplomats including Sergei Lavrov and Sergei Ryabkov reiterated that no tests will occur absent a U.S. move, while emphasizing full infrastructure preparedness and ongoing modernization of delivery systems such as Sarmat, Burevestnik, and Poseidon. These statements, coupled with the absence of any confirmed explosive test since 1990, shape trader assessments of near-term probabilities.