The expiration of the New START treaty on February 5, 2026, has eliminated the last major bilateral constraints on U.S. and Russian strategic nuclear forces, amplifying trader concerns over potential testing resumptions amid mutual accusations. Russia, which revoked its ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty in 2023, announced plans in January 2026 for tests of new solid-fuel ICBMs to replace aging Topol-M systems, though these involve delivery vehicles rather than nuclear detonations—the last of which occurred in 1990. A recent ICBM test failure on March 27 underscored technical challenges, while Foreign Minister Lavrov warned in February that U.S. tests could trigger a "domino effect." No nuclear explosive tests have materialized, with odds reflecting low baseline probability but sensitivity to U.S. actions or Ukraine escalation signals ahead of any resolution date.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$1,302,795 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
2026年3月31日
<1%
$1,302,795 Vol.
2026年3月31日
$1,192,309 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The expiration of the New START treaty on February 5, 2026, has eliminated the last major bilateral constraints on U.S. and Russian strategic nuclear forces, amplifying trader concerns over potential testing resumptions amid mutual accusations. Russia, which revoked its ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty in 2023, announced plans in January 2026 for tests of new solid-fuel ICBMs to replace aging Topol-M systems, though these involve delivery vehicles rather than nuclear detonations—the last of which occurred in 1990. A recent ICBM test failure on March 27 underscored technical challenges, while Foreign Minister Lavrov warned in February that U.S. tests could trigger a "domino effect." No nuclear explosive tests have materialized, with odds reflecting low baseline probability but sensitivity to U.S. actions or Ukraine escalation signals ahead of any resolution date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Nov 5, 2025, 1:13 PM ET
音量
$1,302,795終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The expiration of the New START treaty on February 5, 2026, has eliminated the last major bilateral constraints on U.S. and Russian strategic nuclear forces, amplifying trader concerns over potential testing resumptions amid mutual accusations. Russia, which revoked its ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty in 2023, announced plans in January 2026 for tests of new solid-fuel ICBMs to replace aging Topol-M systems, though these involve delivery vehicles rather than nuclear detonations—the last of which occurred in 1990. A recent ICBM test failure on March 27 underscored technical challenges, while Foreign Minister Lavrov warned in February that U.S. tests could trigger a "domino effect." No nuclear explosive tests have materialized, with odds reflecting low baseline probability but sensitivity to U.S. actions or Ukraine escalation signals ahead of any resolution date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$1,302,795終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The expiration of the New START treaty on February 5, 2026, has eliminated the last major bilateral constraints on U.S. and Russian strategic nuclear forces, amplifying trader concerns over potential testing resumptions amid mutual accusations. Russia, which revoked its ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty in 2023, announced plans in January 2026 for tests of new solid-fuel ICBMs to replace aging Topol-M systems, though these involve delivery vehicles rather than nuclear detonations—the last of which occurred in 1990. A recent ICBM test failure on March 27 underscored technical challenges, while Foreign Minister Lavrov warned in February that U.S. tests could trigger a "domino effect." No nuclear explosive tests have materialized, with odds reflecting low baseline probability but sensitivity to U.S. actions or Ukraine escalation signals ahead of any resolution date.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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