Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects low implied probability for President-elect Trump authorizing Tomahawk missile transfers to Ukraine by the specified deadline, primarily driven by his campaign pledges to swiftly end the Russia-Ukraine war through direct negotiations with Moscow and Kyiv, avoiding escalation via advanced U.S. weaponry. Recent developments include Trump's post-election team signaling a pivot from Biden-era aid packages—no official commitments to new arms like Navy Tomahawks have emerged, despite Ukraine's requests for long-range strikes. Incoming national security appointees show mixed hawkishness on Russia, but peace talks take precedence. Key upcoming events: January 20 inauguration and potential early Zelensky-Trump summit, which could clarify U.S. policy trajectory.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$591,841 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
2026年3月31日
1%
$591,841 Vol.
2026年3月31日
$91,419 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Trump administration or the U.S. government announces that it is sending, has sent, or will send Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine by March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying statement within the specified timeframe will suffice regardless of when the missiles are sent.
For the purposes of this market, official policy announcements from the Trump administration or the U.S. government will qualify. Informal statements, leaks, or speculative remarks will not be sufficient.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, the U.S. government, or the government of Ukraine. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used if no direct official statement is available.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Trump administration or the U.S. government announces that it is sending, has sent, or will send Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine by October 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying statement within the specified timeframe will suffice regardless of when the missiles are sent.
For the purposes of this market, official policy announcements from the Trump administration or the U.S. government will qualify. Informal statements, leaks, or speculative remarks will not be sufficient.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, the U.S. government, or the government of Ukraine. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used if no direct official statement is available.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Trump administration or the U.S. government announces that it is sending, has sent, or will send Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine by November 30, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying statement within the specified timeframe will suffice regardless of when the missiles are sent.
For the purposes of this market, official policy announcements from the Trump administration or the U.S. government will qualify. Informal statements, leaks, or speculative remarks will not be sufficient.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, the U.S. government, or the government of Ukraine. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used if no direct official statement is available.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Trump administration or the U.S. government announces that it is sending, has sent, or will send Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying statement within the specified timeframe will suffice regardless of when the missiles are sent.
For the purposes of this market, official policy announcements from the Trump administration or the U.S. government will qualify. Informal statements, leaks, or speculative remarks will not be sufficient.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, the U.S. government, or the government of Ukraine. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used if no direct official statement is available.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Trump administration or the U.S. government announces that it is sending, has sent, or will send Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine by March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying statement within the specified timeframe will suffice regardless of when the missiles are sent.
For the purposes of this market, official policy announcements from the Trump administration or the U.S. government will qualify. Informal statements, leaks, or speculative remarks will not be sufficient.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, the U.S. government, or the government of Ukraine. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used if no direct official statement is available.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Trump administration or the U.S. government announces that it is sending, has sent, or will send Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine by March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying statement within the specified timeframe will suffice regardless of when the missiles are sent.
For the purposes of this market, official policy announcements from the Trump administration or the U.S. government will qualify. Informal statements, leaks, or speculative remarks will not be sufficient.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, the U.S. government, or the government of Ukraine. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used if no direct official statement is available.
A qualifying statement within the specified timeframe will suffice regardless of when the missiles are sent.
For the purposes of this market, official policy announcements from the Trump administration or the U.S. government will qualify. Informal statements, leaks, or speculative remarks will not be sufficient.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, the U.S. government, or the government of Ukraine. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used if no direct official statement is available.
マーケット開始日： Nov 13, 2025, 5:50 PM ET
音量
$591,841終了日
Dec 31, 2025マーケット開始日
Nov 13, 2025, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Trump administration or the U.S. government announces that it is sending, has sent, or will send Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine by March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying statement within the specified timeframe will suffice regardless of when the missiles are sent.
For the purposes of this market, official policy announcements from the Trump administration or the U.S. government will qualify. Informal statements, leaks, or speculative remarks will not be sufficient.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, the U.S. government, or the government of Ukraine. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used if no direct official statement is available.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Trump administration or the U.S. government announces that it is sending, has sent, or will send Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine by October 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying statement within the specified timeframe will suffice regardless of when the missiles are sent.
For the purposes of this market, official policy announcements from the Trump administration or the U.S. government will qualify. Informal statements, leaks, or speculative remarks will not be sufficient.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, the U.S. government, or the government of Ukraine. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used if no direct official statement is available.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Trump administration or the U.S. government announces that it is sending, has sent, or will send Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine by November 30, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying statement within the specified timeframe will suffice regardless of when the missiles are sent.
For the purposes of this market, official policy announcements from the Trump administration or the U.S. government will qualify. Informal statements, leaks, or speculative remarks will not be sufficient.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, the U.S. government, or the government of Ukraine. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used if no direct official statement is available.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Trump administration or the U.S. government announces that it is sending, has sent, or will send Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying statement within the specified timeframe will suffice regardless of when the missiles are sent.
For the purposes of this market, official policy announcements from the Trump administration or the U.S. government will qualify. Informal statements, leaks, or speculative remarks will not be sufficient.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, the U.S. government, or the government of Ukraine. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used if no direct official statement is available.
音量
$591,841終了日
Dec 31, 2025マーケット開始日
Nov 13, 2025, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects low implied probability for President-elect Trump authorizing Tomahawk missile transfers to Ukraine by the specified deadline, primarily driven by his campaign pledges to swiftly end the Russia-Ukraine war through direct negotiations with Moscow and Kyiv, avoiding escalation via advanced U.S. weaponry. Recent developments include Trump's post-election team signaling a pivot from Biden-era aid packages—no official commitments to new arms like Navy Tomahawks have emerged, despite Ukraine's requests for long-range strikes. Incoming national security appointees show mixed hawkishness on Russia, but peace talks take precedence. Key upcoming events: January 20 inauguration and potential early Zelensky-Trump summit, which could clarify U.S. policy trajectory.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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