Trader consensus on Polymarket centers on Elon Musk posting 1160-1279 times in April 2026, with the 1240-1279 bin leading at 15.1% implied probability amid a tight cluster of mid-1200 outcomes, reflecting his consistent mid-40s daily posting pace through the first two weeks—mirroring March's resolved average above 42 posts per day and recent trackers logging 275-293 posts from April 7-14. This steady cadence, fueled by viral commentary on Grok AI benchmarks, Starlink expansions, and cultural flashpoints like South African tensions, underpins the fragmented leadership, as no single catalyst has spiked volume lately. With half the month remaining, swings could arise from Tesla earnings, SpaceX launches, or election-season engagement, keeping lower and higher bins viable for upset potential.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日1240〜1279 14.8%
1160～1199 12.8%
1200～1239 11.6%
1280～1319 10.8%
$7,479,933 Vol.
$7,479,933 Vol.
520〜539
<1%
540～559
<1%
560～579
<1%
580～599
<1%
600～619
<1%
620〜639
<1%
640〜659
<1%
660～679
<1%
680〜699
<1%
700〜719
<1%
720～739
<1%
740～759
<1%
760～779
<1%
780〜799
<1%
800〜839
<1%
840〜879
1%
880〜919
1%
920〜959
1%
960～999
1%
1000〜1039
2%
1040～1079
2%
1080～1119
3%
1120～1159
11%
1160～1199
13%
1200～1239
12%
1240〜1279
15%
1280～1319
11%
1320〜1359
7%
1360～1399
4%
1400〜1439
4%
1440〜1479
3%
1480～1519
2%
1520〜1559
1%
1560〜1599
1%
1600〜1679
1%
1,680〜1,759
1%
1,760〜1,839
<1%
1840〜1919
<1%
1920-1999
<1%
2000件以上
<1%
1240〜1279 14.8%
1160～1199 12.8%
1200～1239 11.6%
1280～1319 10.8%
$7,479,933 Vol.
$7,479,933 Vol.
520〜539
<1%
540～559
<1%
560～579
<1%
580～599
<1%
600～619
<1%
620〜639
<1%
640〜659
<1%
660～679
<1%
680〜699
<1%
700〜719
<1%
720～739
<1%
740～759
<1%
760～779
<1%
780〜799
<1%
800〜839
<1%
840〜879
1%
880〜919
1%
920〜959
1%
960～999
1%
1000〜1039
2%
1040～1079
2%
1080～1119
3%
1120～1159
11%
1160～1199
13%
1200～1239
12%
1240〜1279
15%
1280～1319
11%
1320〜1359
7%
1360～1399
4%
1400〜1439
4%
1440〜1479
3%
1480～1519
2%
1520〜1559
1%
1560〜1599
1%
1600〜1679
1%
1,680〜1,759
1%
1,760〜1,839
<1%
1840〜1919
<1%
1920-1999
<1%
2000件以上
<1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
マーケット開始日： Feb 24, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket centers on Elon Musk posting 1160-1279 times in April 2026, with the 1240-1279 bin leading at 15.1% implied probability amid a tight cluster of mid-1200 outcomes, reflecting his consistent mid-40s daily posting pace through the first two weeks—mirroring March's resolved average above 42 posts per day and recent trackers logging 275-293 posts from April 7-14. This steady cadence, fueled by viral commentary on Grok AI benchmarks, Starlink expansions, and cultural flashpoints like South African tensions, underpins the fragmented leadership, as no single catalyst has spiked volume lately. With half the month remaining, swings could arise from Tesla earnings, SpaceX launches, or election-season engagement, keeping lower and higher bins viable for upset potential.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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