Trader consensus on Polymarket's Elon Musk X post volume for April 2026 remains tightly contested among 1200-1519 bins at 6.9-9.8% implied probabilities, driven by his consistent late-March pace of 25-40 daily posts—exemplified by 58 over March 26-28 (29/day average) and 120 so far in the March 24-31 window. Absent confirmed announcements of major Tesla launches, xAI updates, or political engagements that historically spike his activity, the lack of a clear frontrunner underscores competitive dynamics around variable posting patterns: routine replies and memes versus potential viral threads. Key differentiators include any unannounced April catalysts like earnings calls or controversies, with traders eyeing daily trackers for momentum shifts ahead of the month's close.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日1200～1239 9.6%
1400〜1439 9.2%
1360～1399 9.1%
1320〜1359 8.9%
$4,362,378 Vol.
$4,362,378 Vol.
20未満
<1%
20〜39
<1%
40～59
<1%
60〜79
<1%
80〜99
<1%
100～119
<1%
120〜139
<1%
140〜159
<1%
160～179
<1%
180〜199
<1%
200〜219
<1%
220～239
<1%
240〜259
<1%
260～279
<1%
280～299
<1%
300～319
<1%
320～339
<1%
340〜359
<1%
360〜379
<1%
380〜399
<1%
400〜419
<1%
420～439
<1%
440～459
<1%
460〜479
<1%
480〜499
<1%
500〜519
<1%
520〜539
<1%
540～559
<1%
560～579
<1%
580～599
<1%
600～619
<1%
620〜639
<1%
640〜659
<1%
660～679
<1%
680〜699
<1%
700〜719
<1%
720～739
<1%
740～759
<1%
760～779
<1%
780〜799
<1%
800〜839
2%
840〜879
<1%
880〜919
1%
920〜959
2%
960～999
1%
1000〜1039
3%
1040～1079
2%
1080～1119
3%
1120～1159
4%
1160～1199
4%
1200～1239
10%
1240〜1279
8%
1280～1319
8%
1320〜1359
9%
1360～1399
9%
1400〜1439
9%
1440〜1479
9%
1480～1519
7%
1520〜1559
5%
1560〜1599
4%
1600〜1679
3%
1,680〜1,759
2%
1,760〜1,839
2%
1840〜1919
3%
1920-1999
2%
2000件以上
2%
1200～1239 9.6%
1400〜1439 9.2%
1360～1399 9.1%
1320〜1359 8.9%
$4,362,378 Vol.
$4,362,378 Vol.
20未満
<1%
20〜39
<1%
40～59
<1%
60〜79
<1%
80〜99
<1%
100～119
<1%
120〜139
<1%
140〜159
<1%
160～179
<1%
180〜199
<1%
200〜219
<1%
220～239
<1%
240〜259
<1%
260～279
<1%
280～299
<1%
300～319
<1%
320～339
<1%
340〜359
<1%
360〜379
<1%
380〜399
<1%
400〜419
<1%
420～439
<1%
440～459
<1%
460〜479
<1%
480〜499
<1%
500〜519
<1%
520〜539
<1%
540～559
<1%
560～579
<1%
580～599
<1%
600～619
<1%
620〜639
<1%
640〜659
<1%
660～679
<1%
680〜699
<1%
700〜719
<1%
720～739
<1%
740～759
<1%
760～779
<1%
780〜799
<1%
800〜839
2%
840〜879
<1%
880〜919
1%
920〜959
2%
960～999
1%
1000〜1039
3%
1040～1079
2%
1080～1119
3%
1120～1159
4%
1160～1199
4%
1200～1239
10%
1240〜1279
8%
1280～1319
8%
1320〜1359
9%
1360～1399
9%
1400〜1439
9%
1440〜1479
9%
1480～1519
7%
1520〜1559
5%
1560〜1599
4%
1600〜1679
3%
1,680〜1,759
2%
1,760〜1,839
2%
1840〜1919
3%
1920-1999
2%
2000件以上
2%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
マーケット開始日： Feb 24, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket's Elon Musk X post volume for April 2026 remains tightly contested among 1200-1519 bins at 6.9-9.8% implied probabilities, driven by his consistent late-March pace of 25-40 daily posts—exemplified by 58 over March 26-28 (29/day average) and 120 so far in the March 24-31 window. Absent confirmed announcements of major Tesla launches, xAI updates, or political engagements that historically spike his activity, the lack of a clear frontrunner underscores competitive dynamics around variable posting patterns: routine replies and memes versus potential viral threads. Key differentiators include any unannounced April catalysts like earnings calls or controversies, with traders eyeing daily trackers for momentum shifts ahead of the month's close.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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