Market icon

GTA VIの前に何が起こりますか?

$17,548,387 Vol.

Jul 31, 2026
Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.

For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.

The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.

To qualify, GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.

GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-4 to GPT-5. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.

The primary resolution source for the release of GPT-6 will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$17,548,387
終了日
Jul 31, 2026
作成日時
Aug 7, 2025, 10:20 AM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count. The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive. To qualify, GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-4 to GPT-5. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for the release of GPT-6 will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

外部リンクに注意してください。

Frequently Asked Questions

"GTA VIの前に何が起こりますか?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "ドレイクが『Iceman』をリリース" at 92%, followed by "ロシア・ウクライナ停戦" at 59%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 92¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 92% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "GTA VIの前に何が起こりますか?" has generated $17.5 million in total trading volume since the market launched on May 2, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "GTA VIの前に何が起こりますか?," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "GTA VIの前に何が起こりますか?" is "ドレイクが『Iceman』をリリース" at 92%, meaning the market assigns a 92% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "ロシア・ウクライナ停戦" at 59%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "GTA VIの前に何が起こりますか?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.
Market icon

GTA VIの前に何が起こりますか?

$17,548,387 Vol.

Polymarket

ドレイクが『Iceman』をリリース

$57,810 Vol.

92%

ロシア・ウクライナ停戦

$1,336,971 Vol.

59%

GPT-6のリリース

$270,664 Vol.

59%

新しいPlayboi Cartiのアルバム

$675,160 Vol.

58%

新しいリアーナのアルバム

$639,525 Vol.

52%

トランプ大統領退任

$513,364 Vol.

52%

中国が台湾に侵攻

$1,413,981 Vol.

52%

イエス・キリストの再臨

$9,477,080 Vol.

49%

ビットコインが100万ドルに到達

$3,163,857 Vol.

49%

外部リンクに注意してください。

Frequently Asked Questions

"GTA VIの前に何が起こりますか?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "ドレイクが『Iceman』をリリース" at 92%, followed by "ロシア・ウクライナ停戦" at 59%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 92¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 92% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "GTA VIの前に何が起こりますか?" has generated $17.5 million in total trading volume since the market launched on May 2, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "GTA VIの前に何が起こりますか?," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "GTA VIの前に何が起こりますか?" is "ドレイクが『Iceman』をリリース" at 92%, meaning the market assigns a 92% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "ロシア・ウクライナ停戦" at 59%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "GTA VIの前に何が起こりますか?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.