Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 63.5% implied probability for a 25 basis point Bank of Japan rate hike to 1.00% at the April 26-27 meeting, driven by robust spring wage negotiations yielding a 5.26% average increase—the largest in 35 years—and the BOJ's March 26 gauge showing core CPI at 2.2% excluding special factors, exceeding the 2% target. The March 19 policy hold at 0.75% reflected caution over Middle East tensions elevating oil prices and growth risks, yet Governor Ueda affirmed gradual normalization if inflation sustains. No-change odds at 33% capture geopolitical uncertainty, while larger hikes remain negligible amid measured tapering of bond buys. Traders eye March CPI data and yen intervention risks near USD/JPY 160 ahead of resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日25ベーシスポイント引き上げ 64%
変更なし 37%
50bps以上の利上げ <1%
金利引き下げ <1%
$222,463 Vol.
$222,463 Vol.
Apr 28, 2026
金利引き下げ
1%
変更なし
33%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ
64%
50bps以上の利上げ
1%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ 64%
変更なし 37%
50bps以上の利上げ <1%
金利引き下げ <1%
$222,463 Vol.
$222,463 Vol.
Apr 28, 2026
金利引き下げ
$67,372 Vol.
1%
変更なし
$40,352 Vol.
33%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ
$53,104 Vol.
64%
50bps以上の利上げ
$61,635 Vol.
1%
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for April is scheduled to be released on April 28, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's April 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 63.5% implied probability for a 25 basis point Bank of Japan rate hike to 1.00% at the April 26-27 meeting, driven by robust spring wage negotiations yielding a 5.26% average increase—the largest in 35 years—and the BOJ's March 26 gauge showing core CPI at 2.2% excluding special factors, exceeding the 2% target. The March 19 policy hold at 0.75% reflected caution over Middle East tensions elevating oil prices and growth risks, yet Governor Ueda affirmed gradual normalization if inflation sustains. No-change odds at 33% capture geopolitical uncertainty, while larger hikes remain negligible amid measured tapering of bond buys. Traders eye March CPI data and yen intervention risks near USD/JPY 160 ahead of resolution.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for April is scheduled to be released on April 28, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's April 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's April 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
マーケット開始日： Jan 23, 2026, 6:22 PM ET
音量
$222,463終了日
Apr 28, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 23, 2026, 6:22 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for April is scheduled to be released on April 28, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's April 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 63.5% implied probability for a 25 basis point Bank of Japan rate hike to 1.00% at the April 26-27 meeting, driven by robust spring wage negotiations yielding a 5.26% average increase—the largest in 35 years—and the BOJ's March 26 gauge showing core CPI at 2.2% excluding special factors, exceeding the 2% target. The March 19 policy hold at 0.75% reflected caution over Middle East tensions elevating oil prices and growth risks, yet Governor Ueda affirmed gradual normalization if inflation sustains. No-change odds at 33% capture geopolitical uncertainty, while larger hikes remain negligible amid measured tapering of bond buys. Traders eye March CPI data and yen intervention risks near USD/JPY 160 ahead of resolution.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for April is scheduled to be released on April 28, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's April 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's April 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
音量
$222,463終了日
Apr 28, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 23, 2026, 6:22 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 63.5% implied probability for a 25 basis point Bank of Japan rate hike to 1.00% at the April 26-27 meeting, driven by robust spring wage negotiations yielding a 5.26% average increase—the largest in 35 years—and the BOJ's March 26 gauge showing core CPI at 2.2% excluding special factors, exceeding the 2% target. The March 19 policy hold at 0.75% reflected caution over Middle East tensions elevating oil prices and growth risks, yet Governor Ueda affirmed gradual normalization if inflation sustains. No-change odds at 33% capture geopolitical uncertainty, while larger hikes remain negligible amid measured tapering of bond buys. Traders eye March CPI data and yen intervention risks near USD/JPY 160 ahead of resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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