Market icon

4月の日本銀行の決定は?

Market icon

4月の日本銀行の決定は?

25ベーシスポイント引き上げ 64%

変更なし 37%

50bps以上の利上げ <1%

金利引き下げ <1%

Polymarket

$222,463 Vol.

25ベーシスポイント引き上げ 64%

変更なし 37%

50bps以上の利上げ <1%

金利引き下げ <1%

Polymarket

$222,463 Vol.

金利引き下げ

$67,372 Vol.

1%

変更なし

$40,352 Vol.

33%

25ベーシスポイント引き上げ

$53,104 Vol.

64%

50bps以上の利上げ

$61,635 Vol.

1%

The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for April is scheduled to be released on April 28, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's April 2026 meeting. If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 63.5% implied probability for a 25 basis point Bank of Japan rate hike to 1.00% at the April 26-27 meeting, driven by robust spring wage negotiations yielding a 5.26% average increase—the largest in 35 years—and the BOJ's March 26 gauge showing core CPI at 2.2% excluding special factors, exceeding the 2% target. The March 19 policy hold at 0.75% reflected caution over Middle East tensions elevating oil prices and growth risks, yet Governor Ueda affirmed gradual normalization if inflation sustains. No-change odds at 33% capture geopolitical uncertainty, while larger hikes remain negligible amid measured tapering of bond buys. Traders eye March CPI data and yen intervention risks near USD/JPY 160 ahead of resolution.

Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 63.5% implied probability for a 25 basis point Bank of Japan rate hike to 1.00% at the April 26-27 meeting, driven by robust spring wage negotiations yielding a 5.26% average increase—the largest in 35 years—and the BOJ's March 26 gauge showing core CPI at 2.2% excluding special factors, exceeding the 2% target. The March 19 policy hold at 0.75% reflected caution over Middle East tensions elevating oil prices and growth risks, yet Governor Ueda affirmed gradual normalization if inflation sustains. No-change odds at 33% capture geopolitical uncertainty, while larger hikes remain negligible amid measured tapering of bond buys. Traders eye March CPI data and yen intervention risks near USD/JPY 160 ahead of resolution.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for April is scheduled to be released on April 28, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's April 2026 meeting. If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 63.5% implied probability for a 25 basis point Bank of Japan rate hike to 1.00% at the April 26-27 meeting, driven by robust spring wage negotiations yielding a 5.26% average increase—the largest in 35 years—and the BOJ's March 26 gauge showing core CPI at 2.2% excluding special factors, exceeding the 2% target. The March 19 policy hold at 0.75% reflected caution over Middle East tensions elevating oil prices and growth risks, yet Governor Ueda affirmed gradual normalization if inflation sustains. No-change odds at 33% capture geopolitical uncertainty, while larger hikes remain negligible amid measured tapering of bond buys. Traders eye March CPI data and yen intervention risks near USD/JPY 160 ahead of resolution.

Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 63.5% implied probability for a 25 basis point Bank of Japan rate hike to 1.00% at the April 26-27 meeting, driven by robust spring wage negotiations yielding a 5.26% average increase—the largest in 35 years—and the BOJ's March 26 gauge showing core CPI at 2.2% excluding special factors, exceeding the 2% target. The March 19 policy hold at 0.75% reflected caution over Middle East tensions elevating oil prices and growth risks, yet Governor Ueda affirmed gradual normalization if inflation sustains. No-change odds at 33% capture geopolitical uncertainty, while larger hikes remain negligible amid measured tapering of bond buys. Traders eye March CPI data and yen intervention risks near USD/JPY 160 ahead of resolution.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

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よくある質問

「4月の日本銀行の決定は?」はPolymarket上の4個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「25ベーシスポイント引き上げ」で64%、次いで「変更なし」が33%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、64¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に64%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「4月の日本銀行の決定は?」は$222.5Kの総取引量を生み出しています(Jan 23, 2026のマーケット開始以来)。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「4月の日本銀行の決定は?」で取引するには、このページに記載されている4個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「4月の日本銀行の決定は?」の現在のフロントランナーは「25ベーシスポイント引き上げ」で64%であり、市場がこの結果に64%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「変更なし」で33%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「4月の日本銀行の決定は?」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。