Polymarket traders price a 64% implied probability for a 25 basis point hike in the Bank of Japan's policy rate at the April 25-26 meeting—the leading outcome—reflecting persistent inflation pressures, with March core CPI at 2.8% year-over-year exceeding the 2% target, alongside record 5.3% shunto wage gains signaling stronger labor market dynamics. The 32.5% no-change odds capture caution over yen weakness near 153 per dollar and subdued global demand, tempering aggressive normalization bets despite Governor Ueda's data-dependent rhetoric and rising 40-year JGB yields above 2.5%. Low probabilities for larger hikes (0.9%) or cuts (0.7%) underscore consensus around gradual tightening, with resolution imminent next week.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日25ベーシスポイント引き上げ 64%
変更なし 32%
50bps以上の利上げ <1%
金利引き下げ <1%
$219,102 Vol.
$219,102 Vol.
Apr 28, 2026
金利引き下げ
1%
変更なし
32%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ
64%
50bps以上の利上げ
1%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ 64%
変更なし 32%
50bps以上の利上げ <1%
金利引き下げ <1%
$219,102 Vol.
$219,102 Vol.
Apr 28, 2026
金利引き下げ
$67,138 Vol.
1%
変更なし
$39,958 Vol.
32%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ
$52,665 Vol.
64%
50bps以上の利上げ
$59,341 Vol.
1%
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for April is scheduled to be released on April 28, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's April 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders price a 64% implied probability for a 25 basis point hike in the Bank of Japan's policy rate at the April 25-26 meeting—the leading outcome—reflecting persistent inflation pressures, with March core CPI at 2.8% year-over-year exceeding the 2% target, alongside record 5.3% shunto wage gains signaling stronger labor market dynamics. The 32.5% no-change odds capture caution over yen weakness near 153 per dollar and subdued global demand, tempering aggressive normalization bets despite Governor Ueda's data-dependent rhetoric and rising 40-year JGB yields above 2.5%. Low probabilities for larger hikes (0.9%) or cuts (0.7%) underscore consensus around gradual tightening, with resolution imminent next week.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for April is scheduled to be released on April 28, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's April 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's April 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
マーケット開始日： Jan 23, 2026, 6:22 PM ET
音量
$219,102終了日
Apr 28, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 23, 2026, 6:22 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for April is scheduled to be released on April 28, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's April 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders price a 64% implied probability for a 25 basis point hike in the Bank of Japan's policy rate at the April 25-26 meeting—the leading outcome—reflecting persistent inflation pressures, with March core CPI at 2.8% year-over-year exceeding the 2% target, alongside record 5.3% shunto wage gains signaling stronger labor market dynamics. The 32.5% no-change odds capture caution over yen weakness near 153 per dollar and subdued global demand, tempering aggressive normalization bets despite Governor Ueda's data-dependent rhetoric and rising 40-year JGB yields above 2.5%. Low probabilities for larger hikes (0.9%) or cuts (0.7%) underscore consensus around gradual tightening, with resolution imminent next week.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for April is scheduled to be released on April 28, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's April 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's April 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
音量
$219,102終了日
Apr 28, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 23, 2026, 6:22 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price a 64% implied probability for a 25 basis point hike in the Bank of Japan's policy rate at the April 25-26 meeting—the leading outcome—reflecting persistent inflation pressures, with March core CPI at 2.8% year-over-year exceeding the 2% target, alongside record 5.3% shunto wage gains signaling stronger labor market dynamics. The 32.5% no-change odds capture caution over yen weakness near 153 per dollar and subdued global demand, tempering aggressive normalization bets despite Governor Ueda's data-dependent rhetoric and rising 40-year JGB yields above 2.5%. Low probabilities for larger hikes (0.9%) or cuts (0.7%) underscore consensus around gradual tightening, with resolution imminent next week.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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