Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a tight contest for China Q1 2026 GDP growth year-over-year, with 5.0-5.5% holding a 47.5% implied probability edge over 4.5-5.0% at 39.5%, reflecting robust January-February industrial output surging 6.3%—beating Reuters poll forecasts of 5%—and exports jumping 19.2% on global demand, offset by modest 2.8% retail sales growth and fixed asset investment stabilizing at just 1.8% amid property weakness. March manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) at 50.4 signals continued expansion, differentiating upside potential from annual growth target of 4.5-5%. Q1 GDP data release, expected mid-April, remains the key catalyst amid trade risks.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日4.5～5.0％ 40%
5.0〜5.5％ 36%
5.5〜6.0％ 2.0%
4.0～4.5% <1%
$207,256 Vol.
$207,256 Vol.
2026/04/17
3.5％未満
<1%
3.5～4.0％
<1%
4.0～4.5%
1%
4.5～5.0％
40%
5.0〜5.5％
48%
5.5〜6.0％
2%
6.0%以上
<1%
4.5～5.0％ 40%
5.0〜5.5％ 36%
5.5〜6.0％ 2.0%
4.0～4.5% <1%
$207,256 Vol.
$207,256 Vol.
2026/04/17
3.5％未満
$12,924 Vol.
<1%
3.5～4.0％
$49,834 Vol.
<1%
4.0～4.5%
$32,512 Vol.
1%
4.5～5.0％
$19,631 Vol.
40%
5.0〜5.5％
$19,387 Vol.
48%
5.5〜6.0％
$50,940 Vol.
2%
6.0%以上
$22,029 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 17, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a tight contest for China Q1 2026 GDP growth year-over-year, with 5.0-5.5% holding a 47.5% implied probability edge over 4.5-5.0% at 39.5%, reflecting robust January-February industrial output surging 6.3%—beating Reuters poll forecasts of 5%—and exports jumping 19.2% on global demand, offset by modest 2.8% retail sales growth and fixed asset investment stabilizing at just 1.8% amid property weakness. March manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) at 50.4 signals continued expansion, differentiating upside potential from annual growth target of 4.5-5%. Q1 GDP data release, expected mid-April, remains the key catalyst amid trade risks.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 17, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
マーケット開始日： Jan 21, 2026, 7:11 PM ET
音量
$207,256終了日
2026/04/17マーケット開始日
Jan 21, 2026, 7:11 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 17, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a tight contest for China Q1 2026 GDP growth year-over-year, with 5.0-5.5% holding a 47.5% implied probability edge over 4.5-5.0% at 39.5%, reflecting robust January-February industrial output surging 6.3%—beating Reuters poll forecasts of 5%—and exports jumping 19.2% on global demand, offset by modest 2.8% retail sales growth and fixed asset investment stabilizing at just 1.8% amid property weakness. March manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) at 50.4 signals continued expansion, differentiating upside potential from annual growth target of 4.5-5%. Q1 GDP data release, expected mid-April, remains the key catalyst amid trade risks.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 17, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
音量
$207,256終了日
2026/04/17マーケット開始日
Jan 21, 2026, 7:11 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a tight contest for China Q1 2026 GDP growth year-over-year, with 5.0-5.5% holding a 47.5% implied probability edge over 4.5-5.0% at 39.5%, reflecting robust January-February industrial output surging 6.3%—beating Reuters poll forecasts of 5%—and exports jumping 19.2% on global demand, offset by modest 2.8% retail sales growth and fixed asset investment stabilizing at just 1.8% amid property weakness. March manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) at 50.4 signals continued expansion, differentiating upside potential from annual growth target of 4.5-5%. Q1 GDP data release, expected mid-April, remains the key catalyst amid trade risks.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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