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エコノミー·GDP

2026年第1四半期の中国のGDP成長率（ Y/Y ）は？

Market icon
エコノミー·GDP

2026年第1四半期の中国のGDP成長率（ Y/Y ）は？

Apr 17

Apr 17

4.5～5.0％ 71%

5.0〜5.5％ 24%

5.5〜6.0％ 7.1%

4.0～4.5% <1%

Polymarket

$203,260 Vol.

4.5～5.0％ 71%

5.0〜5.5％ 24%

5.5〜6.0％ 7.1%

4.0～4.5% <1%

Polymarket

$203,260 Vol.

3.5％未満

$12,785 Vol.

<1%

3.5～4.0％

$49,795 Vol.

<1%

4.0～4.5%

$32,507 Vol.

1%

4.5～5.0％

$17,001 Vol.

71%

5.0〜5.5％

$18,967 Vol.

24%

5.5〜6.0％

$50,534 Vol.

7%

6.0%以上

$21,672 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 17, 2026. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a 70.5% implied probability for China Q1 2026 year-over-year GDP growth in the 4.5-5.0% range, closely mirroring the government's freshly set 2026 target announced March 5 amid modest fiscal stimulus via a record budget deficit near 4% of GDP. This positioning stems from robust January-February data released March 16, showing industrial production accelerating to 6.3% year-over-year—beating 5.3% estimates—and retail sales rising 2.8% versus 2.5% expected, fueled by surging exports and a record trade surplus offsetting persistent property sector weakness with February new home prices down 3.2%. Upcoming Q1 GDP release, slated for mid-April, remains the key catalyst amid moderating PMI readings.

Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 70.5% implied probability for China Q1 2026 year-over-year GDP growth in the 4.5-5.0% range, closely mirroring the government's freshly set 2026 target announced March 5 amid modest fiscal stimulus via a record budget deficit near 4% of GDP. This positioning stems from robust January-February data released March 16, showing industrial production accelerating to 6.3% year-over-year—beating 5.3% estimates—and retail sales rising 2.8% versus 2.5% expected, fueled by surging exports and a record trade surplus offsetting persistent property sector weakness with February new home prices down 3.2%. Upcoming Q1 GDP release, slated for mid-April, remains the key catalyst amid moderating PMI readings.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 17, 2026. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a 70.5% implied probability for China Q1 2026 year-over-year GDP growth in the 4.5-5.0% range, closely mirroring the government's freshly set 2026 target announced March 5 amid modest fiscal stimulus via a record budget deficit near 4% of GDP. This positioning stems from robust January-February data released March 16, showing industrial production accelerating to 6.3% year-over-year—beating 5.3% estimates—and retail sales rising 2.8% versus 2.5% expected, fueled by surging exports and a record trade surplus offsetting persistent property sector weakness with February new home prices down 3.2%. Upcoming Q1 GDP release, slated for mid-April, remains the key catalyst amid moderating PMI readings.

Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 70.5% implied probability for China Q1 2026 year-over-year GDP growth in the 4.5-5.0% range, closely mirroring the government's freshly set 2026 target announced March 5 amid modest fiscal stimulus via a record budget deficit near 4% of GDP. This positioning stems from robust January-February data released March 16, showing industrial production accelerating to 6.3% year-over-year—beating 5.3% estimates—and retail sales rising 2.8% versus 2.5% expected, fueled by surging exports and a record trade surplus offsetting persistent property sector weakness with February new home prices down 3.2%. Upcoming Q1 GDP release, slated for mid-April, remains the key catalyst amid moderating PMI readings.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

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よくある質問

「2026年第1四半期の中国のGDP成長率（ Y/Y ）は？」はPolymarket上の7個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「4.5～5.0％」で71%、次いで「5.0〜5.5％」が24%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、71¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に71%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「2026年第1四半期の中国のGDP成長率（ Y/Y ）は？」は$203.3Kの総取引量を生み出しています（Jan 22, 2026のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「2026年第1四半期の中国のGDP成長率（ Y/Y ）は？」で取引するには、このページに記載されている7個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「2026年第1四半期の中国のGDP成長率（ Y/Y ）は？」の現在のフロントランナーは「4.5～5.0％」で71%であり、市場がこの結果に71%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「5.0〜5.5％」で24%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「2026年第1四半期の中国のGDP成長率（ Y/Y ）は？」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。