Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 84.9% implied probability against negative U.S. GDP growth in 2026, reflecting resilient forecasts of 2.0-2.8% annual expansion from the CBO, Goldman Sachs, Vanguard, and FOMC median projections amid a solid starting point from 2.2% growth in 2025. Q4 2025 annualized growth slowed to 1.4%, but Atlanta Fed GDPNow holds Q1 2026 at 2.0% as of March 23; February nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell 92,000 with unemployment ticking to 4.4%, while CPI inflation steadied at 2.4% year-over-year. The Iran war's oil price surge past $120/barrel has elevated recession risks to 30-50% in models like NY Fed DSGE, yet traders see barriers to full-year contraction. Key catalysts: March CPI on April 10 and Q1 GDP advance estimate later this month.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
$15,875 Vol.
$15,875 Vol.
2027/01/29
はい
$15,875 Vol.
$15,875 Vol.
2027/01/29
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 84.9% implied probability against negative U.S. GDP growth in 2026, reflecting resilient forecasts of 2.0-2.8% annual expansion from the CBO, Goldman Sachs, Vanguard, and FOMC median projections amid a solid starting point from 2.2% growth in 2025. Q4 2025 annualized growth slowed to 1.4%, but Atlanta Fed GDPNow holds Q1 2026 at 2.0% as of March 23; February nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell 92,000 with unemployment ticking to 4.4%, while CPI inflation steadied at 2.4% year-over-year. The Iran war's oil price surge past $120/barrel has elevated recession risks to 30-50% in models like NY Fed DSGE, yet traders see barriers to full-year contraction. Key catalysts: March CPI on April 10 and Q1 GDP advance estimate later this month.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
音量
$15,875終了日
2027/01/29マーケット開始日
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 84.9% implied probability against negative U.S. GDP growth in 2026, reflecting resilient forecasts of 2.0-2.8% annual expansion from the CBO, Goldman Sachs, Vanguard, and FOMC median projections amid a solid starting point from 2.2% growth in 2025. Q4 2025 annualized growth slowed to 1.4%, but Atlanta Fed GDPNow holds Q1 2026 at 2.0% as of March 23; February nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell 92,000 with unemployment ticking to 4.4%, while CPI inflation steadied at 2.4% year-over-year. The Iran war's oil price surge past $120/barrel has elevated recession risks to 30-50% in models like NY Fed DSGE, yet traders see barriers to full-year contraction. Key catalysts: March CPI on April 10 and Q1 GDP advance estimate later this month.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
音量
$15,875終了日
2027/01/29マーケット開始日
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 84.9% implied probability against negative U.S. GDP growth in 2026, reflecting resilient forecasts of 2.0-2.8% annual expansion from the CBO, Goldman Sachs, Vanguard, and FOMC median projections amid a solid starting point from 2.2% growth in 2025. Q4 2025 annualized growth slowed to 1.4%, but Atlanta Fed GDPNow holds Q1 2026 at 2.0% as of March 23; February nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell 92,000 with unemployment ticking to 4.4%, while CPI inflation steadied at 2.4% year-over-year. The Iran war's oil price surge past $120/barrel has elevated recession risks to 30-50% in models like NY Fed DSGE, yet traders see barriers to full-year contraction. Key catalysts: March CPI on April 10 and Q1 GDP advance estimate later this month.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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