Trader consensus prices a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, at just 8.5% likelihood, driven by the absence of concrete military preparations like amphibious force buildups or blockades, alongside China's economic headwinds including sluggish growth and property sector woes. Recent PLA exercises, such as Joint Sword-2024B in October following Taiwan President Lai Ching-te's National Day speech affirming sovereignty, remain calibrated responses without escalation signals. US arms sales totaling $2 billion in October bolster Taiwan's defenses, while alliances like AUKUS enhance deterrence. These factors, absent aggressive shifts, anchor the high "No" odds, though US election outcomes could influence cross-strait dynamics.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
はい
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
マーケット開始日： Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ET
音量
$3,269終了日
Sep 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
音量
$3,269終了日
Sep 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, at just 8.5% likelihood, driven by the absence of concrete military preparations like amphibious force buildups or blockades, alongside China's economic headwinds including sluggish growth and property sector woes. Recent PLA exercises, such as Joint Sword-2024B in October following Taiwan President Lai Ching-te's National Day speech affirming sovereignty, remain calibrated responses without escalation signals. US arms sales totaling $2 billion in October bolster Taiwan's defenses, while alliances like AUKUS enhance deterrence. These factors, absent aggressive shifts, anchor the high "No" odds, though US election outcomes could influence cross-strait dynamics.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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