Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 99.4% implied probability to "No" for a People's Bank of China (PBOC) cut to its 7-day reverse repo rate by March 31, 2026, reflecting the central bank's steady monetary policy amid cooling deflation risks and stable funding conditions. The PBOC's March 20 decision to hold benchmark loan prime rates (LPRs) unchanged for a 10th consecutive month—1-year LPR at 3.0%—signaled no near-term easing, aligning with market expectations and recent liquidity withdrawal operations. This high confidence stems from absent announcements or operational hints in the final days before resolution, bolstered by supportive but restrained policy rhetoric. Tail risks include sudden weakness in March economic data, such as industrial production or property metrics, or escalated global tensions prompting an emergency adjustment.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
$114,636 Vol.
$114,636 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
はい
$114,636 Vol.
$114,636 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) cuts the 7-day reverse repo rate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time (CST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “cut” refers to any lowering of the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level lower than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
An official announcement of a cut to the PBoC 7-day Reverse Repo Rate within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of when the rate cut is stated to go into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the People’s Bank of China, including PBoC Open Market Operations announcements (https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting on a cut to the 7-day reverse repo rate may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 99.4% implied probability to "No" for a People's Bank of China (PBOC) cut to its 7-day reverse repo rate by March 31, 2026, reflecting the central bank's steady monetary policy amid cooling deflation risks and stable funding conditions. The PBOC's March 20 decision to hold benchmark loan prime rates (LPRs) unchanged for a 10th consecutive month—1-year LPR at 3.0%—signaled no near-term easing, aligning with market expectations and recent liquidity withdrawal operations. This high confidence stems from absent announcements or operational hints in the final days before resolution, bolstered by supportive but restrained policy rhetoric. Tail risks include sudden weakness in March economic data, such as industrial production or property metrics, or escalated global tensions prompting an emergency adjustment.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) cuts the 7-day reverse repo rate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time (CST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “cut” refers to any lowering of the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level lower than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
An official announcement of a cut to the PBoC 7-day Reverse Repo Rate within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of when the rate cut is stated to go into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the People’s Bank of China, including PBoC Open Market Operations announcements (https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting on a cut to the 7-day reverse repo rate may also be used.
A “cut” refers to any lowering of the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level lower than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
An official announcement of a cut to the PBoC 7-day Reverse Repo Rate within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of when the rate cut is stated to go into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the People’s Bank of China, including PBoC Open Market Operations announcements (https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting on a cut to the 7-day reverse repo rate may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Feb 20, 2026, 4:38 PM ET
音量
$114,636終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Feb 20, 2026, 4:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) cuts the 7-day reverse repo rate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time (CST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “cut” refers to any lowering of the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level lower than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
An official announcement of a cut to the PBoC 7-day Reverse Repo Rate within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of when the rate cut is stated to go into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the People’s Bank of China, including PBoC Open Market Operations announcements (https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting on a cut to the 7-day reverse repo rate may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 99.4% implied probability to "No" for a People's Bank of China (PBOC) cut to its 7-day reverse repo rate by March 31, 2026, reflecting the central bank's steady monetary policy amid cooling deflation risks and stable funding conditions. The PBOC's March 20 decision to hold benchmark loan prime rates (LPRs) unchanged for a 10th consecutive month—1-year LPR at 3.0%—signaled no near-term easing, aligning with market expectations and recent liquidity withdrawal operations. This high confidence stems from absent announcements or operational hints in the final days before resolution, bolstered by supportive but restrained policy rhetoric. Tail risks include sudden weakness in March economic data, such as industrial production or property metrics, or escalated global tensions prompting an emergency adjustment.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) cuts the 7-day reverse repo rate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time (CST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “cut” refers to any lowering of the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level lower than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
An official announcement of a cut to the PBoC 7-day Reverse Repo Rate within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of when the rate cut is stated to go into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the People’s Bank of China, including PBoC Open Market Operations announcements (https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting on a cut to the 7-day reverse repo rate may also be used.
A “cut” refers to any lowering of the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level lower than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
An official announcement of a cut to the PBoC 7-day Reverse Repo Rate within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of when the rate cut is stated to go into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the People’s Bank of China, including PBoC Open Market Operations announcements (https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting on a cut to the 7-day reverse repo rate may also be used.
音量
$114,636終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Feb 20, 2026, 4:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 99.4% implied probability to "No" for a People's Bank of China (PBOC) cut to its 7-day reverse repo rate by March 31, 2026, reflecting the central bank's steady monetary policy amid cooling deflation risks and stable funding conditions. The PBOC's March 20 decision to hold benchmark loan prime rates (LPRs) unchanged for a 10th consecutive month—1-year LPR at 3.0%—signaled no near-term easing, aligning with market expectations and recent liquidity withdrawal operations. This high confidence stems from absent announcements or operational hints in the final days before resolution, bolstered by supportive but restrained policy rhetoric. Tail risks include sudden weakness in March economic data, such as industrial production or property metrics, or escalated global tensions prompting an emergency adjustment.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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