U.S. intelligence community's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment determined China lacks plans for a Taiwan invasion by 2027, preferring cross-strait unification without force if feasible, anchoring trader consensus at 82.5% for "No" amid absent escalation signals. Recent diplomatic moves, including President Xi Jinping's April meeting with Kuomintang chairwoman Cheng Li-wun and Beijing's package of 10 economic incentives for Taiwan, underscore restraint ahead of 2028 elections. China's April 17 defense of routine military exercises around the Taiwan Strait as "reasonable and justified"—blaming Taipei—reflects ongoing coercion without invasion rehearsals. Bolstered U.S. deterrence, Taiwan defenses, and distractions like Middle East tensions further diminish short-term risks.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$301,363 Vol.
$301,363 Vol.
はい
$301,363 Vol.
$301,363 Vol.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
マーケット開始日： Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
リゾルバー
0x65070BE91...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
リゾルバー
0x65070BE91...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
U.S. intelligence community's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment determined China lacks plans for a Taiwan invasion by 2027, preferring cross-strait unification without force if feasible, anchoring trader consensus at 82.5% for "No" amid absent escalation signals. Recent diplomatic moves, including President Xi Jinping's April meeting with Kuomintang chairwoman Cheng Li-wun and Beijing's package of 10 economic incentives for Taiwan, underscore restraint ahead of 2028 elections. China's April 17 defense of routine military exercises around the Taiwan Strait as "reasonable and justified"—blaming Taipei—reflects ongoing coercion without invasion rehearsals. Bolstered U.S. deterrence, Taiwan defenses, and distractions like Middle East tensions further diminish short-term risks.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問