President Trump’s April 2026 naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, imposed after U.S.-Iran talks in Islamabad collapsed, remains in force as of mid-May amid a fragile ceasefire. Recent developments include the brief launch and subsequent pause of “Project Freedom,” an operation to escort stranded commercial vessels, halted at Pakistan’s request to allow time for finalizing a broader war-ending agreement. Iran continues to assert control through the IRGC, coordinating limited transits while rejecting full reopening until the blockade lifts. Ongoing bilateral negotiations, potential breakthroughs on nuclear issues or energy access, and any resumption of direct diplomacy represent the main catalysts that could prompt Trump to announce the blockade’s end, directly shaping trader assessments of resolution timing.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Iran's envoy urges UN to condemn US blockade and attacks on Iranian oil tankers
Iran's envoy called on the UN to condemn US actions in the Persian Gulf, highlighting international legal concerns about the blockade.
US stocks rise to records after solid jobs report
A strong jobs report boosted US stocks, providing economic relief amid ongoing war and blockade, but did not affect the market resolution.
Brent crude falls to $101, market hopes for Hormuz reopening wane
A modest price drop in oil did not translate into optimism about the blockade, as traders still expected the U.S. to keep pressure, leading to the lowest Yes price for all outcomes.
Iran announces willingness to reopen Hormuz if blockade lifted
May 22 drops to 4%10%
Iran’s public statement that it would consider reopening the strait once the U.S. blockade ends sparked a rapid decline in market confidence that the blockade would be lifted by the near‑term dates.
Iran threatens to halt regional trade if U.S. blockade continues
Iran’s joint military command warned that continued U.S. naval actions would force Tehran to stop all regional trade, signaling no imminent concession on the Hormuz blockade.
U.S. Navy continues blockade, no ships allowed through
Continued enforcement without any indication of a lift reinforced bearish sentiment, keeping prices low.
Trump reiterates blockade will stay until Iran agrees to deal
May 31 dips to 20%3%
Trump’s reaffirmation that the blockade remains tied to a diplomatic deal reinforced traders’ belief that a lift was unlikely before the end of May, pushing Yes prices down further.
UK gathers 40 countries to press Iran to reopen Strait of Hormuz
May 15 drops to 8%13%
Britain convened a virtual summit of 40+ nations urging Iran to reopen the strait. Although the U.S. did not attend, the diplomatic pressure raised expectations of a negotiated lift, briefly lifting market odds.
UK hosts multinational summit urging Iran to reopen Hormuz
The diplomatic push by over 40 countries highlighted continued international pressure on Iran, but without a US announcement of lifting the blockade, market sentiment remained low for a lift by any of the target dates.
US stocks rise as jobs report overshadows oil price concerns
A strong jobs report lifted broader market sentiment, temporarily offsetting war‑related risks and causing a modest rebound in the Yes probability for later dates.
Trump hints at possible future lift but offers no concrete date
Trump made a vague comment about a potential future lift without specifying a date, which failed to restore market confidence, keeping prices low.
Oil prices rise as market fears of prolonged Hormuz closure grow
Higher oil prices reflected renewed concerns that the blockade would persist, pushing Yes prices down again.
Oil prices dip as markets hope for Hormuz reopening
May 31 plunges to 23%17%
A modest fall in oil prices reflected fleeting optimism that the blockade might ease, briefly lifting Yes odds before the next escalation.
Trump posts on Truth Social that blockade will stay until deal
May 31 drops to 22%6%
Trump’s direct social‑media post reaffirmed the blockade’s permanence, pushing odds back up despite earlier declines.
UK leads international talks to press Iran to reopen Strait of Hormuz
June 30 dips to 52%3%
Britain convened diplomats from over 40 countries to discuss ways to pressure Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, highlighting international concern over the blockade's economic impact. The US did not attend, reflecting ongoing US-Iran tensions and uncertainty about blockade resolution.
Trump reiterates blockade will stay in force on Truth Social
May 22 plunges to 12%18%
Trump posted on Truth Social that the blockade would stay until Tehran accepts a U.S. deal, removing any speculation of a near‑term lift and pulling the market sharply down.
Trump reiterates blockade will stay until Iran agrees to deal
In a Truth Social post, Trump again stated the blockade would remain until Tehran meets U.S. demands, reinforcing the market’s view that a lift is unlikely before the end of May.
Trump says war with Iran ‘terminated’ under ceasefire
The administration’s claim that the war was terminated suggested a possible de‑escalation, briefly lifting market pessimism and causing a modest price rise.
US stocks rise as jobs report overshadows oil price concerns
May 15 dips to 9%2%
Strong US economic data temporarily eased market fears about the blockade’s impact, nudging Yes prices slightly higher for the earliest dates before they fell again later in the week.
Trump rejects Iran’s latest proposal and reaffirms blockade
Trump publicly stated he was not satisfied with Iran’s peace proposal and that the US blockade would remain in full force, dampening hopes of a quick resolution and pushing prices lower.
Trump rejects Iran’s latest proposal to end the war
Trump’s public dismissal of Iran’s peace proposal signaled continued US pressure and no imminent end to the blockade, pushing prices lower for all outcome dates.
US stocks hit records as jobs report overshadows higher oil prices, but oil remains elevated
A strong jobs report temporarily lifted market optimism, but persistent high oil prices tied to the blockade limited the rally, contributing to a modest price rebound before the next decline.
U.S. Senate debates War Powers Resolution, no change to blockade
May 31 drops to 40%9%
Legislative inaction signaled the blockade would persist, keeping Yes probabilities low for all dates.
U.S. Treasury yields ease as oil prices dip modestly
A modest easing of oil prices reduced immediate pressure but did not change the underlying blockade narrative, leading to a small price rebound.
Trump orders "shoot and kill" of small boats in Hormuz
Trump announced a more aggressive posture, authorising U.S. forces to engage small Iranian vessels, signaling no imminent de‑escalation and driving the market further down.
Trump announces 3-day Russia-Ukraine ceasefire and US disables Iranian tankers
May 31 jumps to 31%11%
Trump announced a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire while US forces disabled Iranian tankers attempting to breach the blockade, showing continued military pressure on Iran.
US Navy seizes Iranian‑flagged cargo ship near the strait
The seizure marked the first interception since the blockade began, reinforcing the perception that the US would not lift the blockade soon, further depressing prices.
Trump announces 3-day Russia-Ukraine ceasefire
Trump announced a 3-day Russia-Ukraine ceasefire, a separate diplomatic event that did not directly affect the Hormuz blockade market.
US forces disable two Iranian tankers attempting to breach blockade
June 30 rises to 44%4%
On May 8, 2026, US forces fired on and disabled two Iranian oil tankers trying to breach the American blockade of Iran’s ports, reinforcing the blockade's enforcement and maintaining pressure on Iran to reopen the strait.
US fires on and disables two Iranian tankers amid rising Strait of Hormuz tensions
May 31 dips to 41%1%
US forces fired on and disabled two Iranian oil tankers attempting to breach the blockade, escalating military tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. This action reinforced the US commitment to the blockade and diminished market hopes for an imminent lifting by May 31.
US fires on and disables two Iranian tankers in Strait of Hormuz
May 15 drops to 14%10%
US forces disabled two Iranian oil tankers attempting to breach the blockade, escalating military tensions and signaling the US's commitment to maintaining the blockade, which further reduced market optimism for lifting it by May deadlines.
U.S. Navy disables two Iranian tankers breaching Hormuz blockade
May 22 plunges to 37%24%
U.S. forces disabled two Iranian tankers attempting to breach the blockade; the action reinforced the blockade’s enforcement and drove the market lower as prospects for reopening dimmed.
US disables two Iranian tankers attempting to breach blockade amid ceasefire talks
May 31 jumps to 40%12%
US forces fired on and disabled two Iranian oil tankers trying to breach the blockade, signaling continued enforcement despite ongoing ceasefire talks. This action maintained pressure on Iran and indicated the blockade would not be lifted imminently, contributing to market declines.
Trump says U.S. blockade stays in place as forces disable two Iranian tankers
May 31 drops to 27%14%
During a live‑updates briefing, Trump reiterated that the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports remained in effect while also noting the disabling of two Iranian tankers trying to breach it. The reaffirmation kept “Yes” odds high despite earlier market softening.
US fires on and disables two Iranian tankers amid Strait of Hormuz tensions
May 22 drops to 29%6%
US forces disabled two Iranian oil tankers attempting to breach the blockade, escalating military tensions and undermining hopes for an early blockade lift. This action contributed to market declines in the probability of the blockade ending by May dates.
US forces fire on and disable two Iranian tankers in Hormuz
U.S. forces engaged Iranian tankers, underscoring ongoing hostilities and reducing market confidence that the blockade would be lifted by any of the listed dates.
US disables two Iranian tankers attempting to breach blockade
May 22 plunges to 35%25%
US forces fired on and disabled two Iranian oil tankers trying to breach the blockade, reinforcing the ongoing enforcement and signaling no imminent lifting of the blockade.
Iran fires on ships after U.S. blockade continues
May 31 surges to 49%21%
Renewed Iranian attacks reinforced the perception that the blockade would not be lifted soon, further depressing Yes prices.
Oil prices dip as analysts hope for renewed US‑Iran talks
A modest fall in Brent crude after reports of possible diplomatic engagement briefly lifted optimism that the blockade might be eased, causing a short‑term price rebound.
Iran fires on India‑flagged ships, summons ambassador
Escalation by Iran increased regional tension and suggested the U.S. would keep its blockade to maintain leverage, keeping market sentiment bearish.
U.S. Navy seizes Iranian‑flagged cargo ship near Hormuz
June 30 rises to 51%3%
The seizure reinforced the active enforcement of the blockade, briefly restoring confidence in its continuation and causing a modest price rebound.
Trump administration says war in Iran has been 'terminated'
June 30 rises to 64%3%
The administration claimed the war ended due to the April ceasefire, potentially allowing them to avoid congressional approval, but the blockade continued.
Trump hints at possible “Project Freedom” to guide ships out of Hormuz
Trump announced a new initiative to facilitate ship movements, sparking a brief market rally as traders saw a potential path to lifting the blockade.
U.S. forces fire on and disable two Iranian tankers in the Strait
U.S. Navy action against Iranian tankers underscored the ongoing enforcement of the blockade, further reducing confidence that the blockade would be lifted soon.
Iran's reported plan to create agency to control Strait of Hormuz is 'unacceptable'
Rubio criticized Iran's plan to create a government agency to vet and tax vessels seeking passage through the strait, raising concerns about international law.
US forces fire on and disable two Iranian tankers in the strait
U.S. Navy engaged Iranian tankers, disabling them and underscoring that the US blockade remained active, causing a sharp drop in market confidence for a near‑term lift.
Trump announces ‘Project Freedom’ to guide ships out of Hormuz, then pauses it
The brief hope of a lift followed by an abrupt pause signaled uncertainty and reinforced expectations that the blockade would not be lifted soon, further depressing prices.
US forces fire on and disable two Iranian tankers in the Strait of Hormuz
Continued US military engagement kept the blockade in effect and underscored the lack of any imminent de‑escalation, driving prices lower.
Trump announces “Project Freedom” to guide ships out of Hormuz
May 15 drops to 20%14%
Trump unveiled a plan to allow limited ship movements, creating brief optimism that the blockade might be eased, which temporarily lifted Yes prices for the nearer dates.
Trump announces ‘Project Freedom’ to guide ships out of Hormuz, then pauses it
May 31 drops to 28%13%
The brief hope of a guided exit raised Yes odds briefly, but the sudden pause reversed optimism, driving the price down sharply.
Trump hints at possible pause in Project Freedom
May 31 plunges to 28%60%
A brief statement suggested the U.S. might pause its “Project Freedom” escort effort, raising speculation that the blockade could be eased, which coincided with a sharp drop in market odds.
U.S. Central Command reports no ships passed blockade in first 24 hours
U.S. Central Command confirmed that no vessels had transited the strait since the blockade began, confirming the blockade’s effectiveness and further reducing lift expectations for May 22.
U.S. Navy fires on two Iranian tankers in Hormuz
Direct military engagement reinforced the perception that the blockade would stay in place, pushing Yes prices sharply lower.
U.S. forces fire on and disable two Iranian tankers in Hormuz
May 31 drops to 41%7%
The escalation demonstrated the blockade’s active enforcement, causing another drop in Yes probabilities for a near‑term lift.
Iran fully closes Strait of Hormuz and fires on ships amid US blockade
May 22 plunges to 34%26%
Iran's Revolutionary Guard declared the Strait of Hormuz fully closed and fired on ships attempting to pass, in retaliation to the US blockade. This escalation heightened global energy concerns and diminished prospects for the blockade being lifted soon, negatively affecting market prices.
UK hosts virtual meeting of 40+ countries to press Iran to reopen Strait of Hormuz
May 31 plunges to 44%16%
Britain convened a virtual meeting of over 40 countries to increase diplomatic pressure on Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, highlighting international concern but no direct US involvement or lifting of blockade.
U.S. Navy seizes Iranian‑flagged cargo ship near Hormuz
The U.S. Navy’s seizure of an Iranian‑flagged vessel heightened tensions and underscored the active enforcement of the blockade, pushing market sentiment toward a lower chance of lift.
U.S. stocks hit records despite higher oil prices
While equities rallied, the underlying oil‑price pressure from the blockade kept market participants skeptical about a lift, contributing to a modest price dip.
Trump announces temporary pause to Hormuz blockade – ‘Project Freedom’
June 30 jumps to 74%9%
Trump announced a 3‑day pause to the blockade to allow “Project Freedom” to guide ships through the strait, giving traders hope of a near‑term reopening and moving the market sharply higher.
Iran’s foreign minister returns to Pakistan, Trump urges phone talks
The back‑and‑forth signaled stalled negotiations and no clear path to lifting the blockade, keeping market sentiment bearish.
Trump says no envoys will travel to Pakistan for talks
Trump announced he had told envoys not to go to Islamabad, indicating a stall in diplomatic efforts and suggesting the blockade would continue, causing another price drop.
Iran’s foreign minister returns briefly to Pakistan; Trump suggests phone talks
May 31 rises to 56%3%
Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi briefly returned to Pakistan amid efforts to restart talks, but President Trump indicated the sides could talk by phone instead of sending envoys, reflecting ongoing diplomatic uncertainty and no clear path to lifting the blockade soon.
Iran’s foreign minister returns briefly to Pakistan amid stalled talks
May 22 drops to 28%5%
Iran’s foreign minister made a brief return to Pakistan as mediators tried to revive ceasefire negotiations, but President Trump suggested talks could happen by phone instead, indicating ongoing diplomatic uncertainty and no clear progress toward lifting the blockade.
Talks between U.S. and Iran stumble as Trump cancels envoys' trip to Pakistan
May 22 plunges to 33%27%
Iran’s top diplomat left Pakistan and President Trump announced he had told envoys not to travel for further talks, signaling stalled negotiations. This development reduced market optimism about a near-term resolution and lifting of the blockade.
Trump cancels envoy trip to Pakistan for Iran talks amid blockade tensions
May 31 drops to 54%6%
President Trump announced he told envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner not to travel to Pakistan for planned Iran talks, signaling a breakdown in diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict and lift the blockade. This diminished hopes for a near-term resolution and contributed to market declines.
Trump tells envoys not to travel to Pakistan for Iran talks
June 30 jumps to 74%11%
Trump’s reversal on sending senior negotiators to Pakistan signaled a stall in diplomatic progress, reducing optimism that the blockade might be lifted soon and contributing to a price rise.
Trump says he told envoys not to go to Pakistan for Iran talks
May 31 plunges to 28%52%
Trump announced he had told envoys not to travel to Pakistan for Iran talks, signaling stalled negotiations and continued US pressure on Iran.
Trump says he told envoys not to go to Pakistan for Iran talks
May 22 plunges to 28%32%
Trump announced he had told envoys not to travel to Pakistan for ceasefire talks, signaling stalled negotiations and continued blockade enforcement.
Trump cancels envoys' trip to Pakistan for Iran talks amid blockade tensions
May 31 plunges to 41%19%
President Trump announced he told envoys not to travel to Pakistan for further Iran ceasefire talks, reflecting stalled diplomacy amid the ongoing blockade. This reduced hopes for a quick resolution and blockade lifting, causing market prices for May 31 and May 22 outcomes to fall sharply.
Trump says he told envoys not to go to Pakistan for Iran talks
Trump announced he had told his envoys not to travel to Pakistan for ceasefire talks, signaling a breakdown in negotiations and reinforcing the blockade.
Trump cancels envoy trip to Pakistan, says no travel needed
By halting diplomatic envoys, Trump reduced prospects for a negotiated end to the blockade, causing another decline in Yes prices.
Trump says he’s no longer sending Witkoff and Kushner to Pakistan for Iran talks
June 30 surges to 81%17%
Trump announced he had told envoys not to travel to Islamabad for further talks, effectively stalling diplomatic progress and keeping the blockade in place. The market’s confidence in a “Yes” outcome rose sharply after the statement.
Trump cancels US envoys' trip to Pakistan for Iran talks amid blockade tensions
May 31 drops to 64%11%
President Trump announced he told US envoys not to travel to Pakistan for further Iran talks, citing wasted time and lack of progress. This move reflected stalled diplomatic efforts to resolve the blockade and war, reducing market optimism for an imminent lifting of the blockade.
Trump cancels envoy trip to Pakistan, halts diplomatic push
June 30 dips to 73%1%
By pulling back diplomatic engagement, Trump reinforced the stance that the blockade would stay in place, further depressing the market’s Yes outlook.
President Trump rejects Iran’s latest proposal to end the war
Trump’s public dismissal of Iran’s offer removed a potential diplomatic pathway to lifting the blockade, reinforcing bearish sentiment.
U.S. Central Command: 23 ships turned back in first day of blockade
May 31 drops to 64%13%
A U.S. Central Command briefing reported that 23 Iranian‑flagged ships had been turned back in the first 24 hours of the blockade, confirming the operational intensity of the blockade and causing a temporary market bounce.
Trump cancels envoys' trip to Pakistan for Iran talks amid blockade tensions
May 31 drops to 63%13%
President Trump announced he told envoys not to travel to Pakistan for follow-up talks with Iran, citing lack of progress and maintaining the blockade. This signaled stalled diplomacy and sustained blockade enforcement, lowering market expectations for a near-term blockade lift.
Trump cancels envoys' trip to Pakistan for Iran talks amid blockade tensions
May 22 plunges to 34%26%
President Trump announced he told envoys not to travel to Pakistan for further ceasefire talks with Iran, citing lack of progress and ongoing US naval blockade. This signaled stalled diplomacy and maintained blockade enforcement, lowering market expectations for lifting the blockade by May 22.
Trump unveils “Project Freedom” to guide ships through Hormuz
June 30 drops to 59%14%
In a televised address, Trump announced “Project Freedom,” a plan to guide civilian ships through the Strait of Hormuz under U.S. protection. The news briefly lifted market optimism for a quick resolution, prompting a dip in “Yes” prices before the subsequent rise due to later hard‑line statements.
Trump rejects Iran’s latest proposal to end war
May 31 jumps to 90%7%
President Trump publicly rejected Iran’s latest peace proposal, expressing dissatisfaction and blaming Iran’s fractured leadership. This rejection signaled no imminent agreement to lift the blockade, contributing to declining market prices for early resolution.
Trump cancels envoys' trip to Pakistan for Iran talks
May 31 dips to 60%4%
President Trump announced he told envoys not to travel to Pakistan for further talks with Iran, signaling stalled negotiations and continued uncertainty over the blockade's future.
U.S. seizes Iranian‑flagged cargo ship near Hormuz
The U.S. Navy seized an Iranian‑flagged vessel attempting to evade the blockade, reinforcing the enforcement of the blockade and further lowering market confidence in a near‑term lift.
U.S. Central Command reports 23 ships turned back by blockade
The operational report showed the blockade actively preventing vessels from transiting, confirming that the U.S. was not moving toward lifting it, which weighed on market sentiment.
Trump says U.S. blockade will stay in force despite cease‑fire talks
During a press briefing Trump reiterated that the blockade remains active while diplomatic talks continue, reinforcing market belief that a lift is unlikely in the short term.
Trump rejects Iran’s latest proposal to end the war
Trump’s public dismissal of Iran’s peace offer signaled continued US pressure and no imminent end to the blockade, keeping market sentiment bearish for a lift.
Trump posts on Truth Social that blockade remains in full force
May 31 surges to 85%17%
Trump posted on Truth Social that the blockade would stay “in full force” and that he would not send envoys to Pakistan, reinforcing the expectation that the blockade would continue and pushing the market further down.
Trump rejects Iran’s latest proposal to end the war
June 30 dips to 74%1%
Trump’s public dismissal signaled continued U.S. pressure and no imminent end to the blockade, keeping Yes probabilities low.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard closes Strait of Hormuz and fires on ships
Iran’s IRGC announced the strait was closed again and began firing on vessels, linking the closure directly to the U.S. blockade and removing any optimism of a quick lift.
Trump rejects Iran’s latest peace proposal
Trump’s public rejection signaled no imminent diplomatic breakthrough, reinforcing expectations that the blockade would stay in force and pushing Yes prices down further.
US Navy seizes Iranian‑flagged cargo ship near the Strait of Hormuz
The first interception since the blockade began signaled a hardening US stance, prompting a further drop in market confidence that the blockade would end soon.
US seizes Iranian-flagged cargo ship near Strait of Hormuz
May 31 jumps to 82%7%
The US Navy attacked and seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship attempting to evade the blockade near the Strait of Hormuz, marking the first interception since the blockade began. This event heightened tensions and diminished prospects for lifting the blockade soon.
US Navy seizes Iranian-flagged cargo ship near Strait of Hormuz
May 31 drops to 78%10%
The US Navy intercepted and seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship attempting to evade the blockade near the Strait of Hormuz, escalating tensions and casting doubt on the fragile ceasefire. This military action reinforced the blockade's enforcement and reduced market optimism for an early lifting.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard closes Strait of Hormuz and fires on ships
June 30 rises to 75%4%
Iran’s retaliation underscored the blockade’s persistence, prompting a sharp rise in Yes prices as traders saw little chance of an early lift.
U.S. Navy seizes Iranian‑flagged cargo ship near Hormuz
June 30 surges to 74%18%
The U.S. Navy seized an Iranian‑flagged cargo vessel near the Strait of Hormuz, the first interception since the blockade began. Iran called the act piracy, heightening tensions and pushing the market toward a “Yes” view that the blockade would persist.
U.S. Navy seizes Iranian-flagged cargo ship near Strait of Hormuz
May 31 plunges to 56%21%
The U.S. Navy attacked and seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship attempting to evade the naval blockade, marking the first such interception since the blockade began. This action heightened tensions and cast doubt on the fragile ceasefire, impacting market perceptions of the blockade's continuation.
Trump says he’s ‘not satisfied’ with Iran’s proposal to end the war
June 30 jumps to 73%9%
Trump publicly rejected Iran’s latest proposal to end the war, saying he was “not satisfied.” The refusal signaled that the blockade would continue, reinforcing market expectations of a “Yes” outcome.
Iran fully closes Strait and fires on ships after U.S. blockade
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard announced a full closure of the strait and fired on vessels, underscoring that the U.S. blockade was still active and making a lift unlikely, pushing prices lower.
Iran Revolutionary Guard fully closes Strait of Hormuz and fires on ships
June 30 surges to 71%18%
The IRGC announced it had fully closed the Strait of Hormuz and would fire on any vessel attempting to pass, directly counter‑acting the U.S. blockade and sharply lowering market confidence that the waterway would reopen soon.
Iran fully closes Strait of Hormuz and fires on ships
May 31 plunges to 44%36%
Iran reversed its reopening of the strait, closing it to all vessels and firing on ships attempting to pass, deepening the blockade and causing oil prices to spike.
Administration argues war‑powers deadline paused, keeping blockade legally viable
May 31 jumps to 44%7%
A senior administration official cited the War Powers Resolution to argue that the 60‑day congressional approval deadline was paused by the ceasefire, implying the blockade could continue without new congressional authorization. The legal argument sparked a brief rally in “Yes” prices.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard closes Hormuz and fires on ships
Iran’s retaliation by fully closing the strait and firing on vessels highlighted the ongoing conflict and made a lift of the U.S. blockade seem unlikely, further depressing market prices.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard declares the Strait of Hormuz fully closed and fires on ships
In retaliation for the US blockade, Iran’s IRGC announced the strait was closed and engaged vessels attempting passage, further reducing expectations of a quick lift.
Iran Revolutionary Guard fully closes Strait of Hormuz and fires on ships attempting passage
May 31 drops to 77%11%
On April 18, 2026, Iran's Revolutionary Guard announced the full closure of the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation to the US blockade and fired on ships trying to pass. This escalated tensions and underscored Iran's control over the strait, complicating prospects for lifting the blockade.
Iran fully closes Strait of Hormuz and fires on ships
June 30 jumps to 74%9%
Iran reversed its reopening of the strait and fired on ships attempting to pass, in retaliation for the US blockade. This escalated tensions and confirmed the blockade was in effect.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard fully closes the Strait and fires on ships
Iran announced a complete closure of the strait and began firing on vessels, tying the reopening directly to the U.S. blockade and pushing market odds of a lift even lower.
Iran fully closes Strait of Hormuz and fires on ships in retaliation
May 22 plunges to 25%35%
Iran's Revolutionary Guard declared the Strait of Hormuz closed until the US blockade is lifted and fired on ships attempting to pass, escalating the conflict and signaling no immediate end to the blockade. This action further diminished market expectations for a blockade lift by the near-term dates.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard closes Strait of Hormuz and fires on ships
June 30 jumps to 63%7%
Iran responded to the U.S. blockade by fully closing the strait and attacking vessels, reinforcing the perception that the blockade would not be lifted soon, keeping market odds high.
Iran fires on ships attempting to transit the strait
Following the closure, IRGC gunboats opened fire on commercial vessels, confirming that the strait remained closed and reinforcing market pessimism about a lift of the blockade.
US Navy seizes Iranian-flagged cargo ship near Strait of Hormuz
May 31 drops to 77%7%
The US Navy intercepted and seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship attempting to evade the US naval blockade near the Strait of Hormuz, escalating tensions and signaling the blockade's enforcement. This action reinforced the US commitment to maintaining the blockade, reducing market confidence in an imminent lifting.
Trump rejects Iran’s latest proposal to end the war
Trump publicly said he was not satisfied with Iran’s offer, reaffirming the blockade and lowering expectations that the U.S. would lift it soon, further depressing the market.
Trump says blockade will remain in full force
Two days after the initial announcement, Trump reiterated that the blockade would stay "in full force" despite Iran’s tentative reopening of the strait, reinforcing market expectations that the lift was unlikely.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard closes Strait of Hormuz in retaliation
The IRGC announced a full closure of the Strait of Hormuz and warned that any vessel approaching would be considered hostile, directly countering the US blockade and heightening the risk of continued closure.
Trump rejects Iran’s proposal, says blockade will stay
Trump publicly rejected Iran’s latest peace proposal, emphasizing that the blockade would remain until Tehran meets U.S. demands, further depressing market expectations for a lift by May 31.
U.S. Navy seizes Iranian‑flagged cargo ship near Hormuz
The seizure was the first interception since the blockade began, underscoring the enforcement of the blockade and raising fears of continued restrictions, which pushed Yes prices lower.
Pakistani delegation meets Iranian officials amid ceasefire talks and blockade tensions
May 31 rises to 88%4%
On April 15, 2026, Pakistani officials met with Iranian representatives to facilitate diplomacy amid the US blockade and ongoing ceasefire talks. Reports indicated progress toward extending the ceasefire, but the US blockade remained in place, maintaining pressure on Iran.
Trump declares U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports
May 31 surges to 86%38%
President Donald Trump announced that the United States had begun a naval blockade of Iranian ports, signalling that the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed until a deal was reached. This initial announcement drove the market’s sharp rise in early April as traders priced in a longer‑term blockade.
Trump announces US naval blockade of Iranian ports
President Trump publicly declared a full naval blockade of Iran’s ports, signalling that the US would not allow Iranian shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The announcement raised expectations that the blockade would remain in force, pushing the market up.
President Trump announces US military blockade of Iranian ports
President Donald Trump declared a US naval blockade of all Iranian ports to pressure Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and accept a deal to end the war. This announcement marked the start of the blockade and set the stage for heightened tensions and market uncertainty about the blockade's duration.
Trump announces U.S. military blockade of Iranian ports
President Trump declared a full‑scale naval blockade of Iran’s ports, signalling that the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed until a deal is reached, boosting market confidence in a continued blockade.
Trump announces US blockade of Iranian ports begins
June 30 jumps to 64%8%
President Trump declared a US naval blockade of all Iranian ports as part of pressure to force Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz. This triggered Iran's retaliation by closing the strait and firing on ships attempting to transit, setting the stage for the market's resolution.
Trump announces U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports
President Donald Trump declared a full‑scale naval blockade of Iran’s ports, signalling that the Strait of Hormuz would stay closed. The announcement caused the market to tumble as traders saw little chance of a lift before June 30.
President Trump announces U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports
Trump declared a full‑scale blockade of Iran’s ports, signalling that the Strait of Hormuz would stay closed until Tehran agrees to a deal. The announcement spiked market confidence that the blockade would not be lifted, causing a sharp drop in Yes prices for all dates.
Trump declares U.S. blockade of Iranian ports will stay in full force
President Trump announced on April 13 that the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports, which underpins the Hormuz blockade, would remain until Tehran agrees to a deal, signaling no imminent lift of the Hormuz blockade.
Trump declares U.S. blockade of Iran’s ports and the Strait of Hormuz
June 30 surges to 73%17%
President Donald Trump announced a U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports and the Strait of Hormuz, stating the blockade would remain until Tehran agrees to a U.S. deal. The announcement sparked the market’s initial surge toward a “Yes” outcome as traders priced in the possibility of a permanent blockade.
President Trump announces US naval blockade of Iranian ports and the Strait of Hormuz
Trump declared a full‑scale blockade on Monday, signalling that the US would not allow Iranian vessels to transit the strait until a deal is reached, intensifying market fears of a prolonged closure.
Trump announces US military blockade of Iranian ports near Strait of Hormuz
May 31 surges to 84%36%
President Donald Trump declared a US naval blockade of all Iranian ports to pressure Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and accept a deal to end the war. This announcement marked the start of the blockade and heightened tensions, impacting market expectations for the blockade's duration.
President Trump announces U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports
June 30 dips to 53%3%
Trump declared a full‑scale blockade of Iran’s ports to pressure Tehran to end the war, signaling no imminent lift of the Hormuz blockade and pushing Yes probabilities lower for all dates.
President Trump announces U.S. blockade of Iranian ports near Strait of Hormuz
May 31 surges to 87%39%
President Donald Trump declared a naval blockade of all Iranian ports to pressure Iran into reopening the Strait of Hormuz and accepting a deal to end the ongoing conflict. This announcement marked the start of the blockade and set the stage for heightened tensions and economic impacts globally.
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