Xi Jinping’s extensive consolidation of authority through the Communist Party and Central Military Commission has produced a tightly controlled leadership structure with minimal visible signs of elite fragmentation or organized opposition. Traders reflect this stability in the 96.7 percent implied probability assigned to no coup attempt before 2027, viewing the current power arrangement as resilient against internal challenges. Recent leadership selections and ongoing anti-corruption mechanisms have further reinforced elite cohesion, consistent with historical patterns of long-term authoritarian continuity in China. Even so, low-probability shifts could still emerge from sudden health events affecting senior figures, abrupt economic disruptions that erode military or party loyalty, or unforeseen external crises that expose latent divisions.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$128,651 Vol.
$128,651 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$128,651 Vol.
$128,651 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s extensive consolidation of authority through the Communist Party and Central Military Commission has produced a tightly controlled leadership structure with minimal visible signs of elite fragmentation or organized opposition. Traders reflect this stability in the 96.7 percent implied probability assigned to no coup attempt before 2027, viewing the current power arrangement as resilient against internal challenges. Recent leadership selections and ongoing anti-corruption mechanisms have further reinforced elite cohesion, consistent with historical patterns of long-term authoritarian continuity in China. Even so, low-probability shifts could still emerge from sudden health events affecting senior figures, abrupt economic disruptions that erode military or party loyalty, or unforeseen external crises that expose latent divisions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
音量
$128,651終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s extensive consolidation of authority through the Communist Party and Central Military Commission has produced a tightly controlled leadership structure with minimal visible signs of elite fragmentation or organized opposition. Traders reflect this stability in the 96.7 percent implied probability assigned to no coup attempt before 2027, viewing the current power arrangement as resilient against internal challenges. Recent leadership selections and ongoing anti-corruption mechanisms have further reinforced elite cohesion, consistent with historical patterns of long-term authoritarian continuity in China. Even so, low-probability shifts could still emerge from sudden health events affecting senior figures, abrupt economic disruptions that erode military or party loyalty, or unforeseen external crises that expose latent divisions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$128,651終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Xi Jinping’s extensive consolidation of authority through the Communist Party and Central Military Commission has produced a tightly controlled leadership structure with minimal visible signs of elite fragmentation or organized opposition. Traders reflect this stability in the 96.7 percent implied probability assigned to no coup attempt before 2027, viewing the current power arrangement as resilient against internal challenges. Recent leadership selections and ongoing anti-corruption mechanisms have further reinforced elite cohesion, consistent with historical patterns of long-term authoritarian continuity in China. Even so, low-probability shifts could still emerge from sudden health events affecting senior figures, abrupt economic disruptions that erode military or party loyalty, or unforeseen external crises that expose latent divisions.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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