Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 94.3% implied probability against any coup attempt in China before 2027, driven by President Xi Jinping's sustained power consolidation through PLA purges absent verified challenges. Unsubstantiated rumors in late January 2026 alleged a failed plot involving senior general Zhang Youxia, Xi's close ally, amid his investigation for corruption and nuclear secrets leaks, but official Ministry of National Defense statements framed it as anti-corruption enforcement, with no evidence of broader military revolt. March 2026 reports detailed renewed sweeps of PLA leadership, reinforcing central authority. No fresh developments in the past 30 days signal instability, though economic pressures or elite defections could shift dynamics ahead of key 2026 policy deadlines.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
$111,769 Vol.
$111,769 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$111,769 Vol.
$111,769 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 94.3% implied probability against any coup attempt in China before 2027, driven by President Xi Jinping's sustained power consolidation through PLA purges absent verified challenges. Unsubstantiated rumors in late January 2026 alleged a failed plot involving senior general Zhang Youxia, Xi's close ally, amid his investigation for corruption and nuclear secrets leaks, but official Ministry of National Defense statements framed it as anti-corruption enforcement, with no evidence of broader military revolt. March 2026 reports detailed renewed sweeps of PLA leadership, reinforcing central authority. No fresh developments in the past 30 days signal instability, though economic pressures or elite defections could shift dynamics ahead of key 2026 policy deadlines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
音量
$111,769終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 94.3% implied probability against any coup attempt in China before 2027, driven by President Xi Jinping's sustained power consolidation through PLA purges absent verified challenges. Unsubstantiated rumors in late January 2026 alleged a failed plot involving senior general Zhang Youxia, Xi's close ally, amid his investigation for corruption and nuclear secrets leaks, but official Ministry of National Defense statements framed it as anti-corruption enforcement, with no evidence of broader military revolt. March 2026 reports detailed renewed sweeps of PLA leadership, reinforcing central authority. No fresh developments in the past 30 days signal instability, though economic pressures or elite defections could shift dynamics ahead of key 2026 policy deadlines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$111,769終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 94.3% implied probability against any coup attempt in China before 2027, driven by President Xi Jinping's sustained power consolidation through PLA purges absent verified challenges. Unsubstantiated rumors in late January 2026 alleged a failed plot involving senior general Zhang Youxia, Xi's close ally, amid his investigation for corruption and nuclear secrets leaks, but official Ministry of National Defense statements framed it as anti-corruption enforcement, with no evidence of broader military revolt. March 2026 reports detailed renewed sweeps of PLA leadership, reinforcing central authority. No fresh developments in the past 30 days signal instability, though economic pressures or elite defections could shift dynamics ahead of key 2026 policy deadlines.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問