Recent military purges in the People’s Liberation Army, including the removal of senior Central Military Commission figures such as Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli over alleged corruption, factionalism, and disciplinary issues, have shaped trader views on internal stability. These actions, concentrated in 2026 and affecting navy, rocket force, and theater commands, are widely interpreted as Xi Jinping’s consolidation of authority ahead of leadership transitions and policy debates on Taiwan. No coordinated coup attempt by state actors has materialized or been credibly reported, consistent with the market’s low implied probability. Structural controls on the PLA, party oversight of the military, and the absence of visible factional mobilization or public signals of dissent reinforce the current pricing. The 21st National Congress scheduled for 2027 falls outside the primary resolution window but could test leadership cohesion if related tensions persist.
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