Xi Jinping’s consolidated personalistic rule over the Chinese Communist Party and People’s Liberation Army underpins the 95.8% trader consensus against a coup attempt before 2027. Extensive anti-corruption purges targeting senior military figures, including multiple Central Military Commission members through 2025 and into 2026, have reinforced loyalty to the central leadership rather than signaling vulnerability. No verified elite factions or institutional mechanisms currently threaten this structure. Uncertainties around the 2027 Party Congress succession process or sudden health developments could still introduce volatility, though such shifts remain low-probability events under current conditions.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$129,704 Vol.
$129,704 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$129,704 Vol.
$129,704 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s consolidated personalistic rule over the Chinese Communist Party and People’s Liberation Army underpins the 95.8% trader consensus against a coup attempt before 2027. Extensive anti-corruption purges targeting senior military figures, including multiple Central Military Commission members through 2025 and into 2026, have reinforced loyalty to the central leadership rather than signaling vulnerability. No verified elite factions or institutional mechanisms currently threaten this structure. Uncertainties around the 2027 Party Congress succession process or sudden health developments could still introduce volatility, though such shifts remain low-probability events under current conditions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
音量
$129,704終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s consolidated personalistic rule over the Chinese Communist Party and People’s Liberation Army underpins the 95.8% trader consensus against a coup attempt before 2027. Extensive anti-corruption purges targeting senior military figures, including multiple Central Military Commission members through 2025 and into 2026, have reinforced loyalty to the central leadership rather than signaling vulnerability. No verified elite factions or institutional mechanisms currently threaten this structure. Uncertainties around the 2027 Party Congress succession process or sudden health developments could still introduce volatility, though such shifts remain low-probability events under current conditions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$129,704終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Xi Jinping’s consolidated personalistic rule over the Chinese Communist Party and People’s Liberation Army underpins the 95.8% trader consensus against a coup attempt before 2027. Extensive anti-corruption purges targeting senior military figures, including multiple Central Military Commission members through 2025 and into 2026, have reinforced loyalty to the central leadership rather than signaling vulnerability. No verified elite factions or institutional mechanisms currently threaten this structure. Uncertainties around the 2027 Party Congress succession process or sudden health developments could still introduce volatility, though such shifts remain low-probability events under current conditions.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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