Xi Jinping’s long-term consolidation of power, including repeated leadership purges and the elevation of loyalists in the People’s Liberation Army and Central Military Commission, has produced an unusually centralized command structure with few visible internal rivals. This pattern, reinforced by the absence of major factional challenges or public elite discord ahead of the 2027 Party Congress, underpins the market’s strong consensus against any coup attempt. Historical precedents of one-man rule in modern China further align with current trader assessments of low risk. Still, developments such as an abrupt leadership health event, sharp economic contraction, or unexpected foreign-policy reversal could introduce new variables capable of shifting internal dynamics before 2027.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$128,057 Vol.
$128,057 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$128,057 Vol.
$128,057 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s long-term consolidation of power, including repeated leadership purges and the elevation of loyalists in the People’s Liberation Army and Central Military Commission, has produced an unusually centralized command structure with few visible internal rivals. This pattern, reinforced by the absence of major factional challenges or public elite discord ahead of the 2027 Party Congress, underpins the market’s strong consensus against any coup attempt. Historical precedents of one-man rule in modern China further align with current trader assessments of low risk. Still, developments such as an abrupt leadership health event, sharp economic contraction, or unexpected foreign-policy reversal could introduce new variables capable of shifting internal dynamics before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
音量
$128,057終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s long-term consolidation of power, including repeated leadership purges and the elevation of loyalists in the People’s Liberation Army and Central Military Commission, has produced an unusually centralized command structure with few visible internal rivals. This pattern, reinforced by the absence of major factional challenges or public elite discord ahead of the 2027 Party Congress, underpins the market’s strong consensus against any coup attempt. Historical precedents of one-man rule in modern China further align with current trader assessments of low risk. Still, developments such as an abrupt leadership health event, sharp economic contraction, or unexpected foreign-policy reversal could introduce new variables capable of shifting internal dynamics before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$128,057終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Xi Jinping’s long-term consolidation of power, including repeated leadership purges and the elevation of loyalists in the People’s Liberation Army and Central Military Commission, has produced an unusually centralized command structure with few visible internal rivals. This pattern, reinforced by the absence of major factional challenges or public elite discord ahead of the 2027 Party Congress, underpins the market’s strong consensus against any coup attempt. Historical precedents of one-man rule in modern China further align with current trader assessments of low risk. Still, developments such as an abrupt leadership health event, sharp economic contraction, or unexpected foreign-policy reversal could introduce new variables capable of shifting internal dynamics before 2027.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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