US intelligence assessments from early May 2026 indicate Iran's timeline to produce a nuclear weapon remains unchanged at 9-12 months despite US and Israeli strikes on nuclear facilities since February, with limited new damage to its supply chain and enrichment capabilities. IAEA reports highlight ongoing access denials to sites but no evidence of weaponization or test preparations, amid stalled ceasefire talks and rejected US demands for program dismantlement. Traders' 90.5% "No" consensus reflects Iran's historical nuclear restraint under deterrence pressures, absent seismic or official signals of an explosion test before year-end 2027, though escalation, regime shifts, or covert advances could shift odds.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$190,521 Vol.
$190,521 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$190,521 Vol.
$190,521 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US intelligence assessments from early May 2026 indicate Iran's timeline to produce a nuclear weapon remains unchanged at 9-12 months despite US and Israeli strikes on nuclear facilities since February, with limited new damage to its supply chain and enrichment capabilities. IAEA reports highlight ongoing access denials to sites but no evidence of weaponization or test preparations, amid stalled ceasefire talks and rejected US demands for program dismantlement. Traders' 90.5% "No" consensus reflects Iran's historical nuclear restraint under deterrence pressures, absent seismic or official signals of an explosion test before year-end 2027, though escalation, regime shifts, or covert advances could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
音量
$190,521終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US intelligence assessments from early May 2026 indicate Iran's timeline to produce a nuclear weapon remains unchanged at 9-12 months despite US and Israeli strikes on nuclear facilities since February, with limited new damage to its supply chain and enrichment capabilities. IAEA reports highlight ongoing access denials to sites but no evidence of weaponization or test preparations, amid stalled ceasefire talks and rejected US demands for program dismantlement. Traders' 90.5% "No" consensus reflects Iran's historical nuclear restraint under deterrence pressures, absent seismic or official signals of an explosion test before year-end 2027, though escalation, regime shifts, or covert advances could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$190,521終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US intelligence assessments from early May 2026 indicate Iran's timeline to produce a nuclear weapon remains unchanged at 9-12 months despite US and Israeli strikes on nuclear facilities since February, with limited new damage to its supply chain and enrichment capabilities. IAEA reports highlight ongoing access denials to sites but no evidence of weaponization or test preparations, amid stalled ceasefire talks and rejected US demands for program dismantlement. Traders' 90.5% "No" consensus reflects Iran's historical nuclear restraint under deterrence pressures, absent seismic or official signals of an explosion test before year-end 2027, though escalation, regime shifts, or covert advances could shift odds.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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