Israeli and U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025 damaged enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, prompting the IAEA to withdraw inspectors and limiting verification of remaining stockpiles of uranium enriched up to 60 percent. Subsequent diplomatic talks through early 2026 have focused on demands for facility dismantlement and material removal, with limited progress reported. Iran has shown signs of reconstruction at some locations but faces ongoing constraints from damaged infrastructure and international scrutiny. These developments have reinforced trader consensus that a nuclear test remains unlikely before 2027, barring major shifts in negotiations or enforcement.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$200,361 Vol.
$200,361 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$200,361 Vol.
$200,361 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Israeli and U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025 damaged enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, prompting the IAEA to withdraw inspectors and limiting verification of remaining stockpiles of uranium enriched up to 60 percent. Subsequent diplomatic talks through early 2026 have focused on demands for facility dismantlement and material removal, with limited progress reported. Iran has shown signs of reconstruction at some locations but faces ongoing constraints from damaged infrastructure and international scrutiny. These developments have reinforced trader consensus that a nuclear test remains unlikely before 2027, barring major shifts in negotiations or enforcement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
音量
$200,361終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Israeli and U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025 damaged enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, prompting the IAEA to withdraw inspectors and limiting verification of remaining stockpiles of uranium enriched up to 60 percent. Subsequent diplomatic talks through early 2026 have focused on demands for facility dismantlement and material removal, with limited progress reported. Iran has shown signs of reconstruction at some locations but faces ongoing constraints from damaged infrastructure and international scrutiny. These developments have reinforced trader consensus that a nuclear test remains unlikely before 2027, barring major shifts in negotiations or enforcement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$200,361終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Israeli and U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025 damaged enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, prompting the IAEA to withdraw inspectors and limiting verification of remaining stockpiles of uranium enriched up to 60 percent. Subsequent diplomatic talks through early 2026 have focused on demands for facility dismantlement and material removal, with limited progress reported. Iran has shown signs of reconstruction at some locations but faces ongoing constraints from damaged infrastructure and international scrutiny. These developments have reinforced trader consensus that a nuclear test remains unlikely before 2027, barring major shifts in negotiations or enforcement.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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