US and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 damaged or destroyed key Iranian enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, with IAEA inspectors withdrawn and no verified resumption of uranium enrichment as of March 2026 assessments. Iranian officials have stated their enriched uranium stockpiles remain under rubble with no recovery plans, while intelligence reports indicate no structured weapons program or active weaponization efforts. Satellite imagery shows limited reconstruction at sites like Pickaxe Mountain and Taleghan 2, focused on concealment rather than testing infrastructure. These verified setbacks, combined with ongoing diplomatic pressures and lack of detectable preparations for a nuclear explosion, underpin trader consensus that no test will occur before 2027, though undetected advances or shifts in Iranian policy remain potential variables.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$200,361 Vol.
$200,361 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$200,361 Vol.
$200,361 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 damaged or destroyed key Iranian enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, with IAEA inspectors withdrawn and no verified resumption of uranium enrichment as of March 2026 assessments. Iranian officials have stated their enriched uranium stockpiles remain under rubble with no recovery plans, while intelligence reports indicate no structured weapons program or active weaponization efforts. Satellite imagery shows limited reconstruction at sites like Pickaxe Mountain and Taleghan 2, focused on concealment rather than testing infrastructure. These verified setbacks, combined with ongoing diplomatic pressures and lack of detectable preparations for a nuclear explosion, underpin trader consensus that no test will occur before 2027, though undetected advances or shifts in Iranian policy remain potential variables.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
音量
$200,361終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 damaged or destroyed key Iranian enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, with IAEA inspectors withdrawn and no verified resumption of uranium enrichment as of March 2026 assessments. Iranian officials have stated their enriched uranium stockpiles remain under rubble with no recovery plans, while intelligence reports indicate no structured weapons program or active weaponization efforts. Satellite imagery shows limited reconstruction at sites like Pickaxe Mountain and Taleghan 2, focused on concealment rather than testing infrastructure. These verified setbacks, combined with ongoing diplomatic pressures and lack of detectable preparations for a nuclear explosion, underpin trader consensus that no test will occur before 2027, though undetected advances or shifts in Iranian policy remain potential variables.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$200,361終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 damaged or destroyed key Iranian enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, with IAEA inspectors withdrawn and no verified resumption of uranium enrichment as of March 2026 assessments. Iranian officials have stated their enriched uranium stockpiles remain under rubble with no recovery plans, while intelligence reports indicate no structured weapons program or active weaponization efforts. Satellite imagery shows limited reconstruction at sites like Pickaxe Mountain and Taleghan 2, focused on concealment rather than testing infrastructure. These verified setbacks, combined with ongoing diplomatic pressures and lack of detectable preparations for a nuclear explosion, underpin trader consensus that no test will occur before 2027, though undetected advances or shifts in Iranian policy remain potential variables.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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