Traders assign a 96.3% probability to no Iranian nuclear test before 2027 primarily because extensive U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged key enrichment sites, centrifuge production, and weapons-related facilities such as Minzadayi, leaving much of the program inoperable or requiring extensive reconstruction. Recent satellite imagery shows cleanup and vehicle activity at struck sites, while Iran retains a stockpile of uranium enriched to 60% and some underground assets, yet IAEA inspectors have lacked access since mid-2025 and no verified weaponization steps or test preparations have been confirmed. Iranian officials continue to affirm commitments under the NPT and deny weapons ambitions, though domestic debate has surfaced. A test within the remaining months would demand rapid, undetected reconstitution amid heightened scrutiny, a scenario viewed as improbable by the market consensus. Potential shifts could stem from accelerated underground work at locations like Pickaxe Mountain or a sudden policy reversal amid regional tensions.