Recent US-Israeli airstrikes beginning February 28, 2026, targeted Iran's nuclear facilities at Natanz, Isfahan, and elsewhere, causing significant damage per satellite imagery and IAEA assessments, with no radiation leaks detected and limited access granted for verification. IAEA's February-March 2026 reports confirm Iran's stockpile of 440kg uranium enriched to 60%—near weapons-grade—but no evidence of weaponization or testing activities, despite speculation from minor earthquakes ruled natural by seismologists. Ongoing 2025-2026 US-Iran negotiations and Tehran's public non-nuclear doctrine, amid regime pressures and sanctions, underpin trader consensus implying low likelihood of a test before 2027, as escalation risks outweigh strategic gains. Upcoming IAEA board meetings could shift sentiment.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
$143,452 Vol.
$143,452 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$143,452 Vol.
$143,452 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent US-Israeli airstrikes beginning February 28, 2026, targeted Iran's nuclear facilities at Natanz, Isfahan, and elsewhere, causing significant damage per satellite imagery and IAEA assessments, with no radiation leaks detected and limited access granted for verification. IAEA's February-March 2026 reports confirm Iran's stockpile of 440kg uranium enriched to 60%—near weapons-grade—but no evidence of weaponization or testing activities, despite speculation from minor earthquakes ruled natural by seismologists. Ongoing 2025-2026 US-Iran negotiations and Tehran's public non-nuclear doctrine, amid regime pressures and sanctions, underpin trader consensus implying low likelihood of a test before 2027, as escalation risks outweigh strategic gains. Upcoming IAEA board meetings could shift sentiment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
音量
$143,452終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent US-Israeli airstrikes beginning February 28, 2026, targeted Iran's nuclear facilities at Natanz, Isfahan, and elsewhere, causing significant damage per satellite imagery and IAEA assessments, with no radiation leaks detected and limited access granted for verification. IAEA's February-March 2026 reports confirm Iran's stockpile of 440kg uranium enriched to 60%—near weapons-grade—but no evidence of weaponization or testing activities, despite speculation from minor earthquakes ruled natural by seismologists. Ongoing 2025-2026 US-Iran negotiations and Tehran's public non-nuclear doctrine, amid regime pressures and sanctions, underpin trader consensus implying low likelihood of a test before 2027, as escalation risks outweigh strategic gains. Upcoming IAEA board meetings could shift sentiment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$143,452終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent US-Israeli airstrikes beginning February 28, 2026, targeted Iran's nuclear facilities at Natanz, Isfahan, and elsewhere, causing significant damage per satellite imagery and IAEA assessments, with no radiation leaks detected and limited access granted for verification. IAEA's February-March 2026 reports confirm Iran's stockpile of 440kg uranium enriched to 60%—near weapons-grade—but no evidence of weaponization or testing activities, despite speculation from minor earthquakes ruled natural by seismologists. Ongoing 2025-2026 US-Iran negotiations and Tehran's public non-nuclear doctrine, amid regime pressures and sanctions, underpin trader consensus implying low likelihood of a test before 2027, as escalation risks outweigh strategic gains. Upcoming IAEA board meetings could shift sentiment.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問