Israeli strikes on March 27, 2026, targeted Iranian nuclear infrastructure, including uranium fuel cycle facilities, plutonium production sites, and weaponization-related locations near Isfahan, with no radiation leaks reported by the IAEA. These attacks, following U.S. and Israeli operations in 2025 that damaged key enrichment and missile sites, have significantly degraded Tehran's capabilities, as confirmed in recent IAEA reports highlighting unresolved verification issues but no evidence of nuclear testing. Despite hardliner calls for doctrinal shifts amid escalating regional tensions, official statements affirm no immediate bomb pursuit, reinforcing trader consensus at 90.5% for "No" test before 2027—barring covert breakthroughs or de-escalation failures—given sanctions, monitoring, and reconstruction hurdles.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
$145,163 Vol.
$145,163 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$145,163 Vol.
$145,163 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Israeli strikes on March 27, 2026, targeted Iranian nuclear infrastructure, including uranium fuel cycle facilities, plutonium production sites, and weaponization-related locations near Isfahan, with no radiation leaks reported by the IAEA. These attacks, following U.S. and Israeli operations in 2025 that damaged key enrichment and missile sites, have significantly degraded Tehran's capabilities, as confirmed in recent IAEA reports highlighting unresolved verification issues but no evidence of nuclear testing. Despite hardliner calls for doctrinal shifts amid escalating regional tensions, official statements affirm no immediate bomb pursuit, reinforcing trader consensus at 90.5% for "No" test before 2027—barring covert breakthroughs or de-escalation failures—given sanctions, monitoring, and reconstruction hurdles.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
音量
$145,163終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Israeli strikes on March 27, 2026, targeted Iranian nuclear infrastructure, including uranium fuel cycle facilities, plutonium production sites, and weaponization-related locations near Isfahan, with no radiation leaks reported by the IAEA. These attacks, following U.S. and Israeli operations in 2025 that damaged key enrichment and missile sites, have significantly degraded Tehran's capabilities, as confirmed in recent IAEA reports highlighting unresolved verification issues but no evidence of nuclear testing. Despite hardliner calls for doctrinal shifts amid escalating regional tensions, official statements affirm no immediate bomb pursuit, reinforcing trader consensus at 90.5% for "No" test before 2027—barring covert breakthroughs or de-escalation failures—given sanctions, monitoring, and reconstruction hurdles.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$145,163終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Israeli strikes on March 27, 2026, targeted Iranian nuclear infrastructure, including uranium fuel cycle facilities, plutonium production sites, and weaponization-related locations near Isfahan, with no radiation leaks reported by the IAEA. These attacks, following U.S. and Israeli operations in 2025 that damaged key enrichment and missile sites, have significantly degraded Tehran's capabilities, as confirmed in recent IAEA reports highlighting unresolved verification issues but no evidence of nuclear testing. Despite hardliner calls for doctrinal shifts amid escalating regional tensions, official statements affirm no immediate bomb pursuit, reinforcing trader consensus at 90.5% for "No" test before 2027—barring covert breakthroughs or de-escalation failures—given sanctions, monitoring, and reconstruction hurdles.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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