Market icon
地政学·中東

マスード・ペゼシュキアンが... ？

Market icon
地政学·中東

マスード・ペゼシュキアンが... ？

$490,698 Vol.

Mar 31, 2026
Polymarket

$490,698 Vol.

Polymarket

3月31日

$276,900 Vol.

4%

4月30日

$1,457 Vol.

11%

6月30日

$101,853 Vol.

32%

12月31日

$110,489 Vol.

39%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Masoud Pezeshkian ceases to be President of Iran for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Masoud Pezeshkian's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Masoud Pezeshkian and the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Iran's political landscape remains highly unstable following the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in late February 2026, leading to the formation of an interim leadership council on March 1 that includes President Masoud Pezeshkian, judiciary head Alireza Arafi, and others to manage the transition. Pezeshkian, a reformist elected in 2024, continues public duties—appointing a defense ministry caretaker on March 2, proposing de-escalation conditions amid the US-Israel conflict on March 12, and vowing revenge after security chief Ali Larijani's killing by Israel on March 17—but faces intensifying pressure from the IRGC, economic crises, and protests. Rumors of resignation attempts circulate unconfirmed, while Supreme Leader succession and potential ceasefire talks loom as key catalysts. Trader consensus reflects this volatility in a power vacuum where hardliners could sideline him.

Iran's political landscape remains highly unstable following the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in late February 2026, leading to the formation of an interim leadership council on March 1 that includes President Masoud Pezeshkian, judiciary head Alireza Arafi, and others to manage the transition. Pezeshkian, a reformist elected in 2024, continues public duties—appointing a defense ministry caretaker on March 2, proposing de-escalation conditions amid the US-Israel conflict on March 12, and vowing revenge after security chief Ali Larijani's killing by Israel on March 17—but faces intensifying pressure from the IRGC, economic crises, and protests. Rumors of resignation attempts circulate unconfirmed, while Supreme Leader succession and potential ceasefire talks loom as key catalysts. Trader consensus reflects this volatility in a power vacuum where hardliners could sideline him.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Masoud Pezeshkian ceases to be President of Iran for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Masoud Pezeshkian's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Masoud Pezeshkian and the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Iran's political landscape remains highly unstable following the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in late February 2026, leading to the formation of an interim leadership council on March 1 that includes President Masoud Pezeshkian, judiciary head Alireza Arafi, and others to manage the transition. Pezeshkian, a reformist elected in 2024, continues public duties—appointing a defense ministry caretaker on March 2, proposing de-escalation conditions amid the US-Israel conflict on March 12, and vowing revenge after security chief Ali Larijani's killing by Israel on March 17—but faces intensifying pressure from the IRGC, economic crises, and protests. Rumors of resignation attempts circulate unconfirmed, while Supreme Leader succession and potential ceasefire talks loom as key catalysts. Trader consensus reflects this volatility in a power vacuum where hardliners could sideline him.

Iran's political landscape remains highly unstable following the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in late February 2026, leading to the formation of an interim leadership council on March 1 that includes President Masoud Pezeshkian, judiciary head Alireza Arafi, and others to manage the transition. Pezeshkian, a reformist elected in 2024, continues public duties—appointing a defense ministry caretaker on March 2, proposing de-escalation conditions amid the US-Israel conflict on March 12, and vowing revenge after security chief Ali Larijani's killing by Israel on March 17—but faces intensifying pressure from the IRGC, economic crises, and protests. Rumors of resignation attempts circulate unconfirmed, while Supreme Leader succession and potential ceasefire talks loom as key catalysts. Trader consensus reflects this volatility in a power vacuum where hardliners could sideline him.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

外部リンクに注意してください。

よくある質問

「マスード・ペゼシュキアンが... ？」はPolymarket上の4個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「12月31日」で39%、次いで「6月30日」が32%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、39¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に39%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「マスード・ペゼシュキアンが... ？」は$490.7Kの総取引量を生み出しています（Jan 8, 2026のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「マスード・ペゼシュキアンが... ？」で取引するには、このページに記載されている4個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「マスード・ペゼシュキアンが... ？」の現在のフロントランナーは「12月31日」で39%であり、市場がこの結果に39%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「6月30日」で32%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「マスード・ペゼシュキアンが... ？」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。