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地政学·イラン

フランス、英国、ドイツは6月30日までにイランを攻撃しますか？

Market icon
地政学·イラン

フランス、英国、ドイツは6月30日までにイランを攻撃しますか？

Mar 31

Jun 30

Mar 31

Jun 30

はい

8% chance
Polymarket

$522,789 Vol.

はい

8% chance
Polymarket

$522,789 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.France, the UK, and Germany have maintained a defensive posture toward Iran amid regional escalation triggered by US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian targets in late February 2026, which prompted Iranian retaliatory missile and drone attacks on regional allies. Joint statements from their leaders on March 1 condemned Iran's actions and affirmed readiness for proportionate defensive measures to protect interests and counter Tehran's missile capabilities, including potential cooperation with the US, alongside embassy staff withdrawals and citizen evacuation advisories. However, no offensive strikes have materialized, with European emphasis on diplomacy, negotiations to curb Iran's nuclear and ballistic programs, and deployments of ships and planes for deterrence rather than attack. Traders' 92.5% consensus on "No" reflects this restraint, historical aversion to direct involvement in offensive operations absent imminent threats, and absence of further provocations in recent weeks, though sudden escalations like major Iranian strikes on European assets could shift odds before June 30.

France, the UK, and Germany have maintained a defensive posture toward Iran amid regional escalation triggered by US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian targets in late February 2026, which prompted Iranian retaliatory missile and drone attacks on regional allies. Joint statements from their leaders on March 1 condemned Iran's actions and affirmed readiness for proportionate defensive measures to protect interests and counter Tehran's missile capabilities, including potential cooperation with the US, alongside embassy staff withdrawals and citizen evacuation advisories. However, no offensive strikes have materialized, with European emphasis on diplomacy, negotiations to curb Iran's nuclear and ballistic programs, and deployments of ships and planes for deterrence rather than attack. Traders' 92.5% consensus on "No" reflects this restraint, historical aversion to direct involvement in offensive operations absent imminent threats, and absence of further provocations in recent weeks, though sudden escalations like major Iranian strikes on European assets could shift odds before June 30.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.France, the UK, and Germany have maintained a defensive posture toward Iran amid regional escalation triggered by US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian targets in late February 2026, which prompted Iranian retaliatory missile and drone attacks on regional allies. Joint statements from their leaders on March 1 condemned Iran's actions and affirmed readiness for proportionate defensive measures to protect interests and counter Tehran's missile capabilities, including potential cooperation with the US, alongside embassy staff withdrawals and citizen evacuation advisories. However, no offensive strikes have materialized, with European emphasis on diplomacy, negotiations to curb Iran's nuclear and ballistic programs, and deployments of ships and planes for deterrence rather than attack. Traders' 92.5% consensus on "No" reflects this restraint, historical aversion to direct involvement in offensive operations absent imminent threats, and absence of further provocations in recent weeks, though sudden escalations like major Iranian strikes on European assets could shift odds before June 30.

France, the UK, and Germany have maintained a defensive posture toward Iran amid regional escalation triggered by US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian targets in late February 2026, which prompted Iranian retaliatory missile and drone attacks on regional allies. Joint statements from their leaders on March 1 condemned Iran's actions and affirmed readiness for proportionate defensive measures to protect interests and counter Tehran's missile capabilities, including potential cooperation with the US, alongside embassy staff withdrawals and citizen evacuation advisories. However, no offensive strikes have materialized, with European emphasis on diplomacy, negotiations to curb Iran's nuclear and ballistic programs, and deployments of ships and planes for deterrence rather than attack. Traders' 92.5% consensus on "No" reflects this restraint, historical aversion to direct involvement in offensive operations absent imminent threats, and absence of further provocations in recent weeks, though sudden escalations like major Iranian strikes on European assets could shift odds before June 30.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

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よくある質問

「フランス、英国、ドイツは6月30日までにイランを攻撃しますか？」はPolymarket上の2個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「フランス、イギリス、またはドイツは6月30日までにイランを攻撃しますか？」で8%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、8¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に8%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「フランス、英国、ドイツは6月30日までにイランを攻撃しますか？」は$522.8Kの総取引量を生み出しています（Feb 16, 2026のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「フランス、英国、ドイツは6月30日までにイランを攻撃しますか？」で取引するには、このページに記載されている2個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

これは非常に拮抗した市場です。「フランス、英国、ドイツは6月30日までにイランを攻撃しますか？」の現在のリーダーは「フランス、イギリス、またはドイツは6月30日までにイランを攻撃しますか？」でわずか8%です。どの結果も強い多数派を占めていないため、トレーダーはこれを非常に不確実と見ており、独自の取引機会を提供する可能性があります。これらのオッズはリアルタイムで更新されますので、このページをブックマークしてください。

「フランス、英国、ドイツは6月30日までにイランを攻撃しますか？」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。