Following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran in late February 2026, which prompted Iranian missile and drone retaliation—including an attack on a British base in Cyprus—France, Germany, and the United Kingdom issued joint statements condemning Tehran's "indiscriminate attacks" and opening the door to defensive measures against Iranian launchers. However, the E3 nations have emphasized diplomacy, urging Iran to curb its nuclear program and ballistic missiles through negotiations, while facilitating U.S. operations via bases without launching offensive strikes themselves. A March 19 joint statement focused on securing the Strait of Hormuz amid ongoing tensions. With no further direct provocations and domestic reluctance for escalation, trader consensus reflects low risk of these countries striking Iran by June 30.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
$522,142 Vol.
$522,142 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
はい
$522,142 Vol.
$522,142 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran in late February 2026, which prompted Iranian missile and drone retaliation—including an attack on a British base in Cyprus—France, Germany, and the United Kingdom issued joint statements condemning Tehran's "indiscriminate attacks" and opening the door to defensive measures against Iranian launchers. However, the E3 nations have emphasized diplomacy, urging Iran to curb its nuclear program and ballistic missiles through negotiations, while facilitating U.S. operations via bases without launching offensive strikes themselves. A March 19 joint statement focused on securing the Strait of Hormuz amid ongoing tensions. With no further direct provocations and domestic reluctance for escalation, trader consensus reflects low risk of these countries striking Iran by June 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Feb 16, 2026, 11:42 AM ET
音量
$522,142終了日
Jun 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Feb 16, 2026, 11:42 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran in late February 2026, which prompted Iranian missile and drone retaliation—including an attack on a British base in Cyprus—France, Germany, and the United Kingdom issued joint statements condemning Tehran's "indiscriminate attacks" and opening the door to defensive measures against Iranian launchers. However, the E3 nations have emphasized diplomacy, urging Iran to curb its nuclear program and ballistic missiles through negotiations, while facilitating U.S. operations via bases without launching offensive strikes themselves. A March 19 joint statement focused on securing the Strait of Hormuz amid ongoing tensions. With no further direct provocations and domestic reluctance for escalation, trader consensus reflects low risk of these countries striking Iran by June 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$522,142終了日
Jun 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Feb 16, 2026, 11:42 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran in late February 2026, which prompted Iranian missile and drone retaliation—including an attack on a British base in Cyprus—France, Germany, and the United Kingdom issued joint statements condemning Tehran's "indiscriminate attacks" and opening the door to defensive measures against Iranian launchers. However, the E3 nations have emphasized diplomacy, urging Iran to curb its nuclear program and ballistic missiles through negotiations, while facilitating U.S. operations via bases without launching offensive strikes themselves. A March 19 joint statement focused on securing the Strait of Hormuz amid ongoing tensions. With no further direct provocations and domestic reluctance for escalation, trader consensus reflects low risk of these countries striking Iran by June 30.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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