Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 92%, driven by the persistent damage to Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines from the September 2022 Baltic Sea sabotage, with no repair or reactivation plans announced by Russia or Germany. Recent German investigations advanced in August 2024 with an arrest warrant for a Ukrainian diving company CEO suspected in the blasts, prolonging uncertainty without resolution. Europe's energy diversification—cutting Russian natural gas imports from 40% to under 10% via LNG terminals and renewables—has eroded political and economic incentives for restart amid ongoing sanctions and the Russia-Ukraine war. Absent diplomatic de-escalation or bilateral agreements, resumption before 2027 faces formidable barriers.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
はい
"Commercial quantities" refers to sustained, measurable flows of gas intended for end-user distribution. Test flows, pressure tests, or symbolic gas transfers not tied to actual supply operations will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日: Nov 5, 2025, 2:36 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91..."Commercial quantities" refers to sustained, measurable flows of gas intended for end-user distribution. Test flows, pressure tests, or symbolic gas transfers not tied to actual supply operations will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 92%, driven by the persistent damage to Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines from the September 2022 Baltic Sea sabotage, with no repair or reactivation plans announced by Russia or Germany. Recent German investigations advanced in August 2024 with an arrest warrant for a Ukrainian diving company CEO suspected in the blasts, prolonging uncertainty without resolution. Europe's energy diversification—cutting Russian natural gas imports from 40% to under 10% via LNG terminals and renewables—has eroded political and economic incentives for restart amid ongoing sanctions and the Russia-Ukraine war. Absent diplomatic de-escalation or bilateral agreements, resumption before 2027 faces formidable barriers.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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