Despite aggressive rhetoric from the Trump administration, including Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's March 2026 calls at the Americas Counter Cartel Conference for military action against narco-terrorists, no US strikes on Mexican soil have materialized. Mexico's February 22 operation killing Jalisco New Generation Cartel leader El Mencho—supported by a new US military-led intelligence task force—highlights deepening bilateral cooperation on border security and cartel disruption. President Sheinbaum has pushed for joint efforts amid threats of unilateral US action, easing tensions. Trader consensus reflects low implied probabilities due to sovereignty risks, effective intel-sharing, and Mexican military gains, though escalating cartel drone threats or fentanyl flows could prompt shifts ahead of policy deadlines like debt ceiling talks or mid-year summits.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$3,244,608 Vol.
2026/12/31
3月31日
<1%
12月31日
24%
$3,244,608 Vol.
3月31日
$1,450,820 Vol.
<1%
12月31日
$531,595 Vol.
24%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Mexico is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Despite aggressive rhetoric from the Trump administration, including Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's March 2026 calls at the Americas Counter Cartel Conference for military action against narco-terrorists, no US strikes on Mexican soil have materialized. Mexico's February 22 operation killing Jalisco New Generation Cartel leader El Mencho—supported by a new US military-led intelligence task force—highlights deepening bilateral cooperation on border security and cartel disruption. President Sheinbaum has pushed for joint efforts amid threats of unilateral US action, easing tensions. Trader consensus reflects low implied probabilities due to sovereignty risks, effective intel-sharing, and Mexican military gains, though escalating cartel drone threats or fentanyl flows could prompt shifts ahead of policy deadlines like debt ceiling talks or mid-year summits.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Mexico is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
マーケット開始日： Jan 4, 2026, 2:52 PM ET
音量
$3,244,608終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 4, 2026, 2:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Mexico is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Despite aggressive rhetoric from the Trump administration, including Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's March 2026 calls at the Americas Counter Cartel Conference for military action against narco-terrorists, no US strikes on Mexican soil have materialized. Mexico's February 22 operation killing Jalisco New Generation Cartel leader El Mencho—supported by a new US military-led intelligence task force—highlights deepening bilateral cooperation on border security and cartel disruption. President Sheinbaum has pushed for joint efforts amid threats of unilateral US action, easing tensions. Trader consensus reflects low implied probabilities due to sovereignty risks, effective intel-sharing, and Mexican military gains, though escalating cartel drone threats or fentanyl flows could prompt shifts ahead of policy deadlines like debt ceiling talks or mid-year summits.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Mexico is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
音量
$3,244,608終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 4, 2026, 2:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Despite aggressive rhetoric from the Trump administration, including Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's March 2026 calls at the Americas Counter Cartel Conference for military action against narco-terrorists, no US strikes on Mexican soil have materialized. Mexico's February 22 operation killing Jalisco New Generation Cartel leader El Mencho—supported by a new US military-led intelligence task force—highlights deepening bilateral cooperation on border security and cartel disruption. President Sheinbaum has pushed for joint efforts amid threats of unilateral US action, easing tensions. Trader consensus reflects low implied probabilities due to sovereignty risks, effective intel-sharing, and Mexican military gains, though escalating cartel drone threats or fentanyl flows could prompt shifts ahead of policy deadlines like debt ceiling talks or mid-year summits.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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