The Guardian reported the BJP’s surprise victory in the West Bengal state election, which, while a domestic political win, underscored Modi’s focus on electoral consolidation

The Guardian reported the BJP’s surprise victory in the West Bengal state election, which, while a domestic political win, underscored Modi’s focus on electoral consolidation rather than international peace efforts, keeping his Nobel‑peace prospects low

“Reuters reports Trump likely among the 287 candidates nominated for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize” – renewed nomination news revived optimism, nudging the

Donald Trump dips to 8%1%

“Reuters reports Trump likely among the 287 candidates nominated for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize” – renewed nomination news revived optimism, nudging the

Euromaidan Press reports that the Norwegian Nobel Committee logged 287 nominations, including Trump and Zelenskyy, reigniting debate over his chances

Volodymyr Zelenskyy dips to 6%3%

Euromaidan Press reports that the Norwegian Nobel Committee logged 287 nominations, including Trump and Zelenskyy, reigniting debate over his chances

A Reddit thread and several social‑media posts revive discussion of Zelenskyy’s nomination, briefly lifting his odds before the market settled back

Volodymyr Zelenskyy rises to 10%2%

A Reddit thread and several social‑media posts revive discussion of Zelenskyy’s nomination, briefly lifting his odds before the market settled back

Yulia Navalnaya visits Australia for first in-person conversation on democracy and human rights

Yulia Navalnaya dips to 8%2%

Her international advocacy tour, including a high-profile event in Melbourne, maintained her visibility but did not translate into significant market gains, reflecting tempered expectations.

Public debates and nominations intensify around other candidates such as Zelenskyy, overshadowing Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani’s prospects despite his diplomatic efforts, keeping his

Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani dips to 4%4%

Public debates and nominations intensify around other candidates such as Zelenskyy, overshadowing Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani’s prospects despite his diplomatic efforts, keeping his market odds low

Media outlets report that the Nobel Committee’s shortlist is expected to include “the Ukrainian people and President Zelenskyy,” causing a short‑term rally

Volodymyr Zelenskyy drops to 8%5%

Media outlets report that the Nobel Committee’s shortlist is expected to include “the Ukrainian people and President Zelenskyy,” causing a short‑term rally

BBC News covered the Indian government’s purchase of the Russian S‑400 missile system, a move that attracted global criticism for bolstering India’s strategic weapons stockpile

Narendra Modi rises to 3%1%

BBC News covered the Indian government’s purchase of the Russian S‑400 missile system, a move that attracted global criticism for bolstering India’s strategic weapons stockpile and further distancing Modi from the peace‑prize narrative

Zelenskyy’s nomination is highlighted in a Change.org petition that gathers thousands of signatures, further boosting his perceived odds

Volodymyr Zelenskyy rises to 13%3%

Zelenskyy’s nomination is highlighted in a Change.org petition that gathers thousands of signatures, further boosting his perceived odds

Market speculation rises briefly amid ongoing geopolitical tensions, but no direct news links Pope Leo XIV to Nobel Prize candidacy

Pope Leo XIV rises to 8%4%

Market speculation rises briefly amid ongoing geopolitical tensions, but no direct news links Pope Leo XIV to Nobel Prize candidacy

Yulia Navalnaya delivers speech in Hamburg highlighting the dangers of 21st-century dictatorships and calls for continued resistance

Yulia Navalnaya rises to 11%4%

Her speech emphasizing the cunning and cruelty of modern dictatorships and urging persistence in the fight against Putin’s regime temporarily increased market optimism about her leadership potential.

Legal experts critique ICJ’s October 2025 advisory opinion on Gaza, emphasizing lack of enforcement and political will

International Court of Justice dips to 3%3%

Scholarly analysis reinforced doubts about the ICJ’s practical impact, contributing to further

Media outlets highlight Zelenskyy’s nomination as a “top‑contender” for the prize, prompting a brief rally in his odds

Volodymyr Zelenskyy dips to 5%2%

Media outlets highlight Zelenskyy’s nomination as a “top‑contender” for the prize, prompting a brief rally in his odds

Norwegian Nobel Committee confirms digital espionage likely caused early leak of 2025 Nobel Peace Prize winner, increasing skepticism about the prize process and negatively

Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani dips to 4%2%

Norwegian Nobel Committee confirms digital espionage likely caused early leak of 2025 Nobel Peace Prize winner, increasing skepticism about the prize process and negatively impacting establishment candidates like Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visits Qatar and meets Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani amid ongoing peace discussions, signaling Qatar’s role in regional diplomacy though

Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani dips to 4%3%

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visits Qatar and meets Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani amid ongoing peace discussions, signaling Qatar’s role in regional diplomacy though market confidence in Tamim remains low

Professor Dag Øistein Endsjø formally submits a nomination of Zelenskyy and the Ukrainian people to the Nobel Committee, sparking a modest uptick in market confidence

Volodymyr Zelenskyy jumps to 10%6%

Professor Dag Øistein Endsjø formally submits a nomination of Zelenskyy and the Ukrainian people to the Nobel Committee, sparking a modest uptick in market confidence

Professor Dag Øistein Endsjø formally nominates President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the Ukrainian people for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize

Volodymyr Zelenskyy jumps to 12%9%

Professor Dag Øistein Endsjø formally nominates President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the Ukrainian people for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize

“Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado presents her Nobel Peace Prize medal to President Donald Trump at the White House” – the public hand‑over underscored that Trump

Donald Trump drops to 13%7%

“Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado presents her Nobel Peace Prize medal to President Donald Trump at the White House” – the public hand‑over underscored that Trump was not the laureate, causing the

Pope Leo XIV holds surprise private audience with Venezuelan Nobel Peace Prize winner María Corina Machado at the Vatican, highlighting his concern for Venezuela’s humanitarian

Pope Leo XIV rises to 4%1%

Pope Leo XIV holds surprise private audience with Venezuelan Nobel Peace Prize winner María Corina Machado at the Vatican, highlighting his concern for Venezuela’s humanitarian situation

Pope Leo XIV’s surprise private meeting with Venezuelan opposition leader and 2025 Nobel Peace Prize winner María Corina Machado at the Vatican, emphasizing his engagement with

Pope Leo XIV rises to 4%1%

Pope Leo XIV’s surprise private meeting with Venezuelan opposition leader and 2025 Nobel Peace Prize winner María Corina Machado at the Vatican, emphasizing his engagement with peace issues but not increasing his market odds significantly.

Al Jazeera reported Modi’s planned state visit to Israel and his Knesset speech praising Indo‑Israeli defence cooperation, sparking protests in India and abroad and reinforcing

Narendra Modi rises to 2%1%

Al Jazeera reported Modi’s planned state visit to Israel and his Knesset speech praising Indo‑Israeli defence cooperation, sparking protests in India and abroad and reinforcing the view that his agenda was aligned with military partnerships rather than peace initiatives

Pope Leo XIV’s Angelus address expressing “deep concern” for Venezuela’s crisis and calling for peace and respect for human rights, signaling his moral leadership but not a Nobel

Pope Leo XIV rises to 4%1%

Pope Leo XIV’s Angelus address expressing “deep concern” for Venezuela’s crisis and calling for peace and respect for human rights, signaling his moral leadership but not a Nobel candidacy boost.

Pope Leo XIV delivers Angelus address urging peace and respect for human rights in Venezuela amid political crisis

Pope Leo XIV rises to 4%1%

Pope Leo XIV delivers Angelus address urging peace and respect for human rights in Venezuela amid political crisis

Israeli court finds allegations against UNRWA unsubstantiated but Israel blocks dozens of aid groups including UNRWA in Gaza

Despite the court ruling, Israel’s operational restrictions on UNRWA and other NGOs maintained pressure on the agency’s ability to function, sustaining low market confidence.

Reuters Breakingviews noted growing anti‑incumbency and speculation that India would soon be “pondering life after Narendra Modi,” signalling a waning of his international

Reuters Breakingviews noted growing anti‑incumbency and speculation that India would soon be “pondering life after Narendra Modi,” signalling a waning of his international prestige and reducing his odds of a peace‑prize nomination

Belgium requests to join South Africa’s ICJ genocide case against Israel, expanding international legal scrutiny

International Court of Justice dips to 2%1%

This development extended the ICJ’s involvement in contentious issues but did not significantly boost market optimism for a Nobel Peace Prize outcome.

Reuters reports U.S. weighing terrorism-related sanctions against UNRWA amid ongoing funding crisis

UNRWA dips to 4%2%

Potential U.S. sanctions raised the stakes for UNRWA’s survival, exacerbating funding uncertainties and depressing market expectations.

“Donald Trump named favorite for 2026 Nobel Peace Prize by William Hill betting odds” – the odds surge boosted trader confidence, pushing the

Donald Trump rises to 20%4%

“Donald Trump named favorite for 2026 Nobel Peace Prize by William Hill betting odds” – the odds surge boosted trader confidence, pushing the

Analysis argues UNRWA in Gaza has been replaced and calls for shuttering the agency

UNRWA dips to 6%3%

Public discourse and policy advocacy intensified against UNRWA, highlighting its diminished role and pushing for alternative aid mechanisms, contributing to continued

Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani visits Damascus, marking the first head of state visit since Assad’s government fell, highlighting Qatar’s active diplomatic engagement in Middle

Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani dips to 6%2%

Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani visits Damascus, marking the first head of state visit since Assad’s government fell, highlighting Qatar’s active diplomatic engagement in Middle East peace efforts but failing to significantly raise Nobel Peace Prize market confidence

Yulia Navalnaya participates in Crossing Border Festival conversation, promoting Alexei Navalny’s legacy

Yulia Navalnaya rises to 7%1%

Her public engagement in cultural and political forums, including promoting her late husband's book "Patriot," reinforced her role as a symbol of resistance, slightly lifting market confidence.

UN Human Rights Chief endorses ICJ ruling as clear on Israel’s obligations to ensure essential supplies in Gaza

International Court of Justice dips to 3%1%

The UN’s support underscored the ruling’s humanitarian importance but did not reverse market skepticism about enforcement or Nobel recognition.

U.S. State Department publicly rebukes ICJ opinion demanding Israel facilitate UNRWA aid to Gaza

International Court of Justice dips to 3%1%

The U.S. government’s rejection of the ICJ ruling highlighted geopolitical resistance, further dampening market confidence in the Court’s influence.

International Court of Justice delivers advisory opinion on Israel’s obligations in the Occupied Palestinian Territory, affirming Israel must facilitate UNRWA operations and humanitarian aid in Gaza

International Court of Justice plunges to 4%45%

This landmark ruling legally reinforced Israel’s duties under international law but was met with immediate political controversy, triggering a sharp market

An Oslo professor publicly nominates President Zelenskyy and the Ukrainian people for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, reviving media attention on his candidacy

Volodymyr Zelenskyy rises to 4%1%

An Oslo professor publicly nominates President Zelenskyy and the Ukrainian people for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, reviving media attention on his candidacy

Reuters reports that the Trump‑Zelenskyy meeting focused on peace‑talks rather than new weapons, reinforcing doubts about Zelenskyy’s chances and keeping his odds low

Reuters reports that the Trump‑Zelenskyy meeting focused on peace‑talks rather than new weapons, reinforcing doubts about Zelenskyy’s chances and keeping his odds low

President Donald Trump meets Zelenskyy at the White House and publicly complains about not having won a Nobel Peace Prize, prompting speculation that the Nobel Committee would

Volodymyr Zelenskyy plunges to 3%47%

President Donald Trump meets Zelenskyy at the White House and publicly complains about not having won a Nobel Peace Prize, prompting speculation that the Nobel Committee would favor a U.S. candidate over the Ukrainian president

Modi’s high‑profile appearance at the NDTV World Summit 2025 was dominated by his remarks on “Operation Sindoor” and a hard‑line stance against cross‑border terrorism, drawing

Narendra Modi plunges to 1%49%

Modi’s high‑profile appearance at the NDTV World Summit 2025 was dominated by his remarks on “Operation Sindoor” and a hard‑line stance against cross‑border terrorism, drawing criticism that his foreign‑policy focus was increasingly militaristic rather than peace‑building

Initial market optimism with Pope Leo XIV at 50% likely based on early speculation or rumors about his candidacy, but no specific news event is documented for this date.

Initial market optimism with Pope Leo XIV at 50% likely based on early speculation or rumors about his candidacy, but no specific news event is documented for this date.

Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado wins the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize amid a leak scandal revealing the winner early, undermining confidence in establishment

Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani plunges to 8%42%

Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado wins the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize amid a leak scandal revealing the winner early, undermining confidence in establishment candidates including Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani

“Donald Trump’s Nobel Peace Prize bid snubed as 2025 prize goes to Venezuelan activist Maria Corina Machado” – the disappointment lowered expectations for Trump, pulling the

Donald Trump drops to 11%9%

“Donald Trump’s Nobel Peace Prize bid snubed as 2025 prize goes to Venezuelan activist Maria Corina Machado” – the disappointment lowered expectations for Trump, pulling the

Yulia Navalnaya receives Brigitte Honorary Award for courage and political commitment

Yulia Navalnaya rises to 10%3%

Awarded for her courage and continuation of Alexei Navalny’s work, this recognition from a prominent European media group boosted her profile as a leading opposition figure abroad.

Yulia Navalnaya urges EU to maintain tourist visas for Russian citizens amid sanctions debate

Yulia Navalnaya plunges to 6%43%

Navalnaya publicly called on the European Union not to impose a blanket ban on tourist visas for Russians, signaling her active political engagement and international advocacy, which initially raised market optimism about her influence.

Israeli Knesset passes laws banning UNRWA operations in Israeli territory and barring contact with Israeli officials

This legal ban further isolated UNRWA operationally and politically, reinforcing doubts about its future role and funding viability.

U.S. announces temporary pause of funding to UNRWA after Israel alleges 12 UNRWA employees participated in Hamas October 7, 2023 attacks

UNRWA plunges to 9%41%

The Biden administration halted U.S. financial support to UNRWA following Israeli accusations, marking a major funding disruption for the agency and triggering a sharp drop in market confidence.