Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 75.5% implied probability for "No" on Houthis successfully targeting shipping by March 31, primarily driven by intensified US-UK airstrikes and naval interceptions that have degraded Houthi missile and drone capabilities, with over a dozen launches downed last week alone and no confirmed commercial hits since late February. Recent developments, including coalition strikes on 20+ radar sites, have slashed attack success rates from early peaks, easing Red Sea disruptions and stabilizing freight rates—down 25% from January highs per Drewry index—while insurance premiums ease amid rerouted traffic. Financial markets reflect this via contained oil price volatility, though trader sentiment eyes potential escalation before the deadline as the key swing factor.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$10,878 Vol.
$10,878 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
$10,878 Vol.
$10,878 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Mar 17, 2026, 5:36 PM ET
音量
$10,878終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 17, 2026, 5:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$10,878終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 17, 2026, 5:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 75.5% implied probability for "No" on Houthis successfully targeting shipping by March 31, primarily driven by intensified US-UK airstrikes and naval interceptions that have degraded Houthi missile and drone capabilities, with over a dozen launches downed last week alone and no confirmed commercial hits since late February. Recent developments, including coalition strikes on 20+ radar sites, have slashed attack success rates from early peaks, easing Red Sea disruptions and stabilizing freight rates—down 25% from January highs per Drewry index—while insurance premiums ease amid rerouted traffic. Financial markets reflect this via contained oil price volatility, though trader sentiment eyes potential escalation before the deadline as the key swing factor.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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