US and Israeli forces launched major airstrikes against Iranian military infrastructure on February 28, 2026, initiating a conflict now in its sixth week with no ceasefire or official end declared. Recent developments, including Iranian forces downing two US warplanes and striking Gulf refineries as of April 3-4, alongside US President Trump's threats to target vital infrastructure, underscore ongoing escalation despite degraded Iranian missile and air defense capabilities. Tehran has rejected ultimatums, sustaining retaliatory actions against Israel and US assets, while the Strait of Hormuz remains contested, disrupting energy flows. Traders weigh persistent regime resilience against accumulating pressures like leadership losses and potential ground operations, with no scheduled diplomatic summits or peace talks imminent to signal de-escalation.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$335,311 Vol.
2026/03/31
4月15日
5%
4月30日
22%
5月31日
42%
6月30日
69%
$335,311 Vol.
4月15日
$36,866 Vol.
5%
4月30日
$25,690 Vol.
22%
5月31日
$12,995 Vol.
42%
6月30日
$11,529 Vol.
69%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli forces launched major airstrikes against Iranian military infrastructure on February 28, 2026, initiating a conflict now in its sixth week with no ceasefire or official end declared. Recent developments, including Iranian forces downing two US warplanes and striking Gulf refineries as of April 3-4, alongside US President Trump's threats to target vital infrastructure, underscore ongoing escalation despite degraded Iranian missile and air defense capabilities. Tehran has rejected ultimatums, sustaining retaliatory actions against Israel and US assets, while the Strait of Hormuz remains contested, disrupting energy flows. Traders weigh persistent regime resilience against accumulating pressures like leadership losses and potential ground operations, with no scheduled diplomatic summits or peace talks imminent to signal de-escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Mar 25, 2026, 2:03 PM ET
音量
$335,311終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Mar 25, 2026, 2:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli forces launched major airstrikes against Iranian military infrastructure on February 28, 2026, initiating a conflict now in its sixth week with no ceasefire or official end declared. Recent developments, including Iranian forces downing two US warplanes and striking Gulf refineries as of April 3-4, alongside US President Trump's threats to target vital infrastructure, underscore ongoing escalation despite degraded Iranian missile and air defense capabilities. Tehran has rejected ultimatums, sustaining retaliatory actions against Israel and US assets, while the Strait of Hormuz remains contested, disrupting energy flows. Traders weigh persistent regime resilience against accumulating pressures like leadership losses and potential ground operations, with no scheduled diplomatic summits or peace talks imminent to signal de-escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$335,311終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Mar 25, 2026, 2:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US and Israeli forces launched major airstrikes against Iranian military infrastructure on February 28, 2026, initiating a conflict now in its sixth week with no ceasefire or official end declared. Recent developments, including Iranian forces downing two US warplanes and striking Gulf refineries as of April 3-4, alongside US President Trump's threats to target vital infrastructure, underscore ongoing escalation despite degraded Iranian missile and air defense capabilities. Tehran has rejected ultimatums, sustaining retaliatory actions against Israel and US assets, while the Strait of Hormuz remains contested, disrupting energy flows. Traders weigh persistent regime resilience against accumulating pressures like leadership losses and potential ground operations, with no scheduled diplomatic summits or peace talks imminent to signal de-escalation.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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