US and Israeli airstrikes against Iran, now on day 35 since launching on February 28, continue targeting missile sites, factories, bridges near Tehran, and infrastructure, with recent strikes destroying a major bridge and hitting Isfahan facilities as of April 3. Iran retaliated yesterday with drone attacks igniting Kuwaiti refineries and missile barrages on Israel and Bahrain, amid contested control of the Strait of Hormuz driving oil price surges. President Trump's warnings of further US attacks on Iranian power plants signal no de-escalation, while a UN Security Council vote today on a Gulf-led resolution for Hormuz access could influence diplomatic paths. Trader consensus reflects sustained military operations absent ceasefire talks or regime collapse indicators.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$322,833 Vol.
2026/03/31
4月15日
12%
4月30日
37%
5月31日
69%
6月30日
80%
$322,833 Vol.
4月15日
$33,486 Vol.
12%
4月30日
$20,727 Vol.
37%
5月31日
$11,343 Vol.
69%
6月30日
$9,116 Vol.
80%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli airstrikes against Iran, now on day 35 since launching on February 28, continue targeting missile sites, factories, bridges near Tehran, and infrastructure, with recent strikes destroying a major bridge and hitting Isfahan facilities as of April 3. Iran retaliated yesterday with drone attacks igniting Kuwaiti refineries and missile barrages on Israel and Bahrain, amid contested control of the Strait of Hormuz driving oil price surges. President Trump's warnings of further US attacks on Iranian power plants signal no de-escalation, while a UN Security Council vote today on a Gulf-led resolution for Hormuz access could influence diplomatic paths. Trader consensus reflects sustained military operations absent ceasefire talks or regime collapse indicators.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Mar 25, 2026, 2:03 PM ET
音量
$322,833終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Mar 25, 2026, 2:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli airstrikes against Iran, now on day 35 since launching on February 28, continue targeting missile sites, factories, bridges near Tehran, and infrastructure, with recent strikes destroying a major bridge and hitting Isfahan facilities as of April 3. Iran retaliated yesterday with drone attacks igniting Kuwaiti refineries and missile barrages on Israel and Bahrain, amid contested control of the Strait of Hormuz driving oil price surges. President Trump's warnings of further US attacks on Iranian power plants signal no de-escalation, while a UN Security Council vote today on a Gulf-led resolution for Hormuz access could influence diplomatic paths. Trader consensus reflects sustained military operations absent ceasefire talks or regime collapse indicators.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$322,833終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Mar 25, 2026, 2:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US and Israeli airstrikes against Iran, now on day 35 since launching on February 28, continue targeting missile sites, factories, bridges near Tehran, and infrastructure, with recent strikes destroying a major bridge and hitting Isfahan facilities as of April 3. Iran retaliated yesterday with drone attacks igniting Kuwaiti refineries and missile barrages on Israel and Bahrain, amid contested control of the Strait of Hormuz driving oil price surges. President Trump's warnings of further US attacks on Iranian power plants signal no de-escalation, while a UN Security Council vote today on a Gulf-led resolution for Hormuz access could influence diplomatic paths. Trader consensus reflects sustained military operations absent ceasefire talks or regime collapse indicators.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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