Traders' 80% implied probability on "No" reflects the absence of concrete diplomatic momentum for Abraham Accords expansion since Kazakhstan's accession in November 2025, with no official announcements or negotiations advancing toward a new sovereign country's entry by June 30. Saudi Arabia remains the prime candidate, but Riyadh continues linking normalization to progress on Palestinian statehood amid ongoing regional tensions, including Iran-related threats and post-war reconfiguration dynamics highlighted in early 2026 analyses. U.S. envoy overtures and President Trump's March teases of Saudi involvement have yielded no breakthroughs, while other prospects like Syria or Lebanon face steeper barriers from conflict and domestic opposition. With under three months left, the lack of scheduled summits or bilateral commitments underpins this trader consensus on stasis.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/06/30
新規
新規
2026/06/30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.Traders' 80% implied probability on "No" reflects the absence of concrete diplomatic momentum for Abraham Accords expansion since Kazakhstan's accession in November 2025, with no official announcements or negotiations advancing toward a new sovereign country's entry by June 30. Saudi Arabia remains the prime candidate, but Riyadh continues linking normalization to progress on Palestinian statehood amid ongoing regional tensions, including Iran-related threats and post-war reconfiguration dynamics highlighted in early 2026 analyses. U.S. envoy overtures and President Trump's March teases of Saudi involvement have yielded no breakthroughs, while other prospects like Syria or Lebanon face steeper barriers from conflict and domestic opposition. With under three months left, the lack of scheduled summits or bilateral commitments underpins this trader consensus on stasis.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Apr 1, 2026, 2:04 PM ET
音量
$136終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Apr 1, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.Traders' 80% implied probability on "No" reflects the absence of concrete diplomatic momentum for Abraham Accords expansion since Kazakhstan's accession in November 2025, with no official announcements or negotiations advancing toward a new sovereign country's entry by June 30. Saudi Arabia remains the prime candidate, but Riyadh continues linking normalization to progress on Palestinian statehood amid ongoing regional tensions, including Iran-related threats and post-war reconfiguration dynamics highlighted in early 2026 analyses. U.S. envoy overtures and President Trump's March teases of Saudi involvement have yielded no breakthroughs, while other prospects like Syria or Lebanon face steeper barriers from conflict and domestic opposition. With under three months left, the lack of scheduled summits or bilateral commitments underpins this trader consensus on stasis.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$136終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Apr 1, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders' 80% implied probability on "No" reflects the absence of concrete diplomatic momentum for Abraham Accords expansion since Kazakhstan's accession in November 2025, with no official announcements or negotiations advancing toward a new sovereign country's entry by June 30. Saudi Arabia remains the prime candidate, but Riyadh continues linking normalization to progress on Palestinian statehood amid ongoing regional tensions, including Iran-related threats and post-war reconfiguration dynamics highlighted in early 2026 analyses. U.S. envoy overtures and President Trump's March teases of Saudi involvement have yielded no breakthroughs, while other prospects like Syria or Lebanon face steeper barriers from conflict and domestic opposition. With under three months left, the lack of scheduled summits or bilateral commitments underpins this trader consensus on stasis.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問