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地政学·中東

2027年までに新しい国がエイブラハム合意に加わるでしょうか？

Market icon
地政学·中東

2027年までに新しい国がエイブラハム合意に加わるでしょうか？

Jan 1

Jan 1

Jan 1

Jan 1

はい

58% chance
Polymarket

$65,248 Vol.

はい

58% chance
Polymarket

$65,248 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count. The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus implies a 64.6% probability of a new country formally signing an Abraham Accords normalization agreement with Israel before 2027, driven by momentum from Kazakhstan's official accession in November 2025—the first expansion of Trump's second term—despite its symbolic upgrade of longstanding ties. Recent U.S. diplomatic pressure, including President Trump's calls for Saudi Arabia to join amid post-Iran war regional reconfiguration, has sustained optimism, as noted in February analyses of shifting Saudi public opinion and congressional advocacy for further growth. Ongoing talks with Indonesia, Syria, and others, alongside security incentives for Gulf states, outweigh hurdles like Riyadh's Palestinian state precondition, positioning additional diplomatic breakthroughs likely within the timeline.

Trader consensus implies a 64.6% probability of a new country formally signing an Abraham Accords normalization agreement with Israel before 2027, driven by momentum from Kazakhstan's official accession in November 2025—the first expansion of Trump's second term—despite its symbolic upgrade of longstanding ties. Recent U.S. diplomatic pressure, including President Trump's calls for Saudi Arabia to join amid post-Iran war regional reconfiguration, has sustained optimism, as noted in February analyses of shifting Saudi public opinion and congressional advocacy for further growth. Ongoing talks with Indonesia, Syria, and others, alongside security incentives for Gulf states, outweigh hurdles like Riyadh's Palestinian state precondition, positioning additional diplomatic breakthroughs likely within the timeline.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count. The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus implies a 64.6% probability of a new country formally signing an Abraham Accords normalization agreement with Israel before 2027, driven by momentum from Kazakhstan's official accession in November 2025—the first expansion of Trump's second term—despite its symbolic upgrade of longstanding ties. Recent U.S. diplomatic pressure, including President Trump's calls for Saudi Arabia to join amid post-Iran war regional reconfiguration, has sustained optimism, as noted in February analyses of shifting Saudi public opinion and congressional advocacy for further growth. Ongoing talks with Indonesia, Syria, and others, alongside security incentives for Gulf states, outweigh hurdles like Riyadh's Palestinian state precondition, positioning additional diplomatic breakthroughs likely within the timeline.

Trader consensus implies a 64.6% probability of a new country formally signing an Abraham Accords normalization agreement with Israel before 2027, driven by momentum from Kazakhstan's official accession in November 2025—the first expansion of Trump's second term—despite its symbolic upgrade of longstanding ties. Recent U.S. diplomatic pressure, including President Trump's calls for Saudi Arabia to join amid post-Iran war regional reconfiguration, has sustained optimism, as noted in February analyses of shifting Saudi public opinion and congressional advocacy for further growth. Ongoing talks with Indonesia, Syria, and others, alongside security incentives for Gulf states, outweigh hurdles like Riyadh's Palestinian state precondition, positioning additional diplomatic breakthroughs likely within the timeline.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

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よくある質問

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